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Message
re: Study Finds Increased Incarceration Has Marginal-to-Zero Impact on Crime
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:33 am to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:33 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Well, reporting of crime has decreased dramatically.
Fify
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:33 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:You said "profound effect". That has not been shown to be true. Also, your chart doesn't show causation.
Then you haven't even looked.
There's no doubt it affected crime rates
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:35 am to Big_Sur
All I know is of someone commits a crime and is in prison that person wont be commuting any further crimes while they are in the clink, so society is safer.
Hell, many convicts are probably on government assistance while they are out robbing, stabbing, and stealing. So the cost of imprisoning them is offset by their not receiving any housing, obamaphone and EBT.
That is a win\win.
Hell, many convicts are probably on government assistance while they are out robbing, stabbing, and stealing. So the cost of imprisoning them is offset by their not receiving any housing, obamaphone and EBT.
That is a win\win.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:40 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Also, your chart doesn't show causation.
Im sure it was a truce amongst the gangs that caused the decline...
Basically destroying the gang structure was the primary reason.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:52 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:There were many factors involved. Your reduction to "it was prison" simply is not supported by any of the available research. Yes, it was probably PARTLY prison.
Im sure it was a truce amongst the gangs that caused the decline...
Here are some interesting links on the topic:
LINK
quote:
Reasonable as it might sound, the research turns out to be far less conclusive. A panel from the National Academy of Sciences looked at the existing research for its landmark 2012 report on the American prison system. They concluded that “on balance,” higher incarceration rates had a “modest” effect on the decline. But they also cautioned that a lack of clear evidence means any benefits were “unlikely to have been large.”
LINK
Somewhat Louisiana-centric analysis
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:54 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
higher incarceration rates had a “modest” effect on the decline.
There you go.
In Texas it had a faitly large impact.
However it was worse for society in the long run
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:56 am to Big_Sur
Incarceration has little to do with discouraging criminals from committing the initial crime.
The important thing is keeping them off the streets, making them pay penance, and hopefully not being repeat offenders
The important thing is keeping them off the streets, making them pay penance, and hopefully not being repeat offenders
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:21 pm to Zach
Speedy trials as guaranteed by the constitution, immediate sentencing, and execution would have an
effect.
That would decrease the workload on judges thereby making the system more efficient.
UT rape victims had to wait four years before the trial.
effect.
That would decrease the workload on judges thereby making the system more efficient.
UT rape victims had to wait four years before the trial.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:32 pm to Big_Sur
Prison is worthless unless you're looking at people that need to stay in there for 20 years or more. I'm all for hand and finger lopping for thieves. For dumbass dopers I'm all for giving them what they want for free.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:47 pm to REG861
quote:
would that suddenly change empirical evidence?
The only emperical evidence here is that the death penalty prohibits recidivism 100% of the time.
Everything else - including the cherry picked metrics used for this analysis - is anecdotal.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:53 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:There I go? Your original claim was that it had a "profound" impact. That would appear to be false. I said all along that it was part of the solution. You seemed to be saying it was pretty much THE solution.
There you go.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:53 pm to Gus007
quote:What percentage of cases actually go to trial? I think for federal offenses it's less than 3%.
Speedy trials as guaranteed by the constitution, immediate sentencing, and execution would have an
effect.
That would decrease the workload on judges thereby making the system more efficient.
UT rape victims had to wait four years before the trial.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:54 pm to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
Everything else - including the cherry picked metrics used for this analysis - is anecdotal.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:59 pm to Big_Sur
They don’t commit crime while locked.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 1:15 pm to NikolaiJakov
quote:
More proof that our prisons aren't tough enough. Make them SOB's a true deterrent and you'll start seeing results.
So the idea is to take mostly young people with almost no education, often times abused as children, equally often saddled with emotional problems who commit crimes without any idea of what a non criminal life looks like and further brutalize that person and expect them to become upright citizens. Sounds like a sound plan.
The war on drugs has been a catastrophe. Wedve been much better served, and more humane, to have simply executed anyone convicted of any kind of crime that would result in their incarceration. That would satisfy the need for retribution and punishment and would cut down on recividism dramatically.....hard to break the law when you are dead. Tossing young people in prison and subjecting them to brutalizations and then returning them to society is not only proven disastrous but it is cruel.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 1:25 pm to Big_Sur
quote:
Vera reports that the state with the largest drop in incarceration rates (New Jersey, with a 37 percent decrease between 2000 and 2015) also saw a 30 percent decrease in crime rates during this period.
Maybe the decrease in crime led to the decrease in incarceration?
This post was edited on 8/7/18 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:05 pm to germandawg
Germandawg I'm stalking you from the OB. I'm headed out to New Mexico next month on a public land dove/teal hunt and remembered an old post of yours and have a few questions if you don't mind emailing me at woodbirdtd@gmail.com.
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