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Message
Impeachment - They Don't Think it be Like it is, But it Do
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:33 pm
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:33 pm
For all the people getting spun up about impeachment here is what it be like.
First, no US president has ever been removed from office via impeachment. Only two presidents have ever been impeached by the House but both were acquitted by the Senate.
So how would Trump be impeached?
Mueller would have to send his findings to the House Judiciary Committee. That is the end of the line for Mueller. He can't indict or impeach Trump (despite popular opinion and feels). The current makeup of the committee is 24 R and 17 D and it takes a simple majority vote to send a resolution to the House.
The Rs could easily kill any resolution in the committee and that might be the route they take. However, my guess is that they would send it to the House in a good faith effort at full transparency. The resolution would die in the House. Impeachment is just as much a political exercises as it is a legal one. Despite what the MSM and polls say, Trump is popular with his base and it would be bad politics for anyone to vote for impeachment.
But but but the Ds will take the House back! (they won't) That election isn't until late in '18 and the newly elected don't start the next day. If Mueller is waiting on that, then you are talking 2019. I don't see anyway Mueller can drag this out until then.
So, let's pretend that the Ds take the House and that Mueller is able to juke and jive until then and that no one complains about the $20 million price tag. The Ds follow the same path as above but are able to pass a resolution to impeach Trump. Eureka! Not really.
Then it moves to the Senate and it will need a 2/3s vote in that chamber. The Ds won't have the votes. Not even close. Trump will be acquitted by the Senate in every scenario.
You want to know how you get more Trump? That is how you get more Trump. Nothing would fire the base up like seeing the Ds pushing impeachment that far only to fail.
Mueller knows this. The Ds know this. Trump knows this. The only calculus that the Ds/Deep State can go with is that this process would so damage Trump that he won't be reelected in '20 (it wont, he will)
First, no US president has ever been removed from office via impeachment. Only two presidents have ever been impeached by the House but both were acquitted by the Senate.
So how would Trump be impeached?
Mueller would have to send his findings to the House Judiciary Committee. That is the end of the line for Mueller. He can't indict or impeach Trump (despite popular opinion and feels). The current makeup of the committee is 24 R and 17 D and it takes a simple majority vote to send a resolution to the House.
The Rs could easily kill any resolution in the committee and that might be the route they take. However, my guess is that they would send it to the House in a good faith effort at full transparency. The resolution would die in the House. Impeachment is just as much a political exercises as it is a legal one. Despite what the MSM and polls say, Trump is popular with his base and it would be bad politics for anyone to vote for impeachment.
But but but the Ds will take the House back! (they won't) That election isn't until late in '18 and the newly elected don't start the next day. If Mueller is waiting on that, then you are talking 2019. I don't see anyway Mueller can drag this out until then.
So, let's pretend that the Ds take the House and that Mueller is able to juke and jive until then and that no one complains about the $20 million price tag. The Ds follow the same path as above but are able to pass a resolution to impeach Trump. Eureka! Not really.
Then it moves to the Senate and it will need a 2/3s vote in that chamber. The Ds won't have the votes. Not even close. Trump will be acquitted by the Senate in every scenario.
You want to know how you get more Trump? That is how you get more Trump. Nothing would fire the base up like seeing the Ds pushing impeachment that far only to fail.
Mueller knows this. The Ds know this. Trump knows this. The only calculus that the Ds/Deep State can go with is that this process would so damage Trump that he won't be reelected in '20 (it wont, he will)
This post was edited on 12/5/17 at 10:35 pm
31
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:38 pm to rds dc
quote:
Then it moves to the Senate and it will need a 2/3s vote in that chamber. The Ds won't have the votes. Not even close. Trump will be acquitted by the Senate in every scenario.
The most realistic scenario for the dems retaking the Senate has them gaining 3 seats in 2018, which would give them 51. That means they would need 16 GOP senators to flip. That is a lot, but never underestimate the GOPe's ability to screw its base. I would not be surprised if enough members of the GOPe sided with the dems; because after all the dems and GOPs are all members of the uniparty.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:39 pm to rds dc
Can't upvote this enough.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:40 pm to rds dc
quote:
I don't see anyway Mueller can drag this out until then.
I have a very, very strong hunch that Mueller has EVERY INTENTION of dragging this out until then.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:40 pm to rds dc
I don’t think anyone grounded in reality thinks impeachment is really on the table right now. Democrats in the House won’t even vote unanimously on the articles introduced by that quack
This post was edited on 12/5/17 at 10:41 pm
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:40 pm to WeeWee
quote:
The most realistic scenario for the dems retaking the Senate has them gaining 3 seats in 2018, which would give them 51. That means they would need 16 GOP senators to flip. That is a lot, but never underestimate the GOPe's ability to screw its base. I would not be surprised if enough members of the GOPe sided with the dems; because after all the dems and GOPs are all members of the uniparty.
The Ds will most likely lose seats in the Senate. Also, the GOPe isn't what it used to be and end of the day most politicians are slime that hold reelection above everything else. Any R that votes to impeach Trump will not win reelection. They know this. Flake is a perfect example of what happens when a R thinks they are bigger than Trump.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:41 pm to rds dc
quote:
and that no one complains about the $20 million price tag
I can personally guarantee you that the Informaion Warriors of the Democrat Party who call themselves "journalists" will never complain about how much time or money Mueller takes.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:44 pm to Champagne
quote:
I can personally guarantee you that the Informaion Warriors of the Democrat Party who call themselves "journalists" will never complain about how much time or money Mueller takes.
In reality, this is the last ditch effort to payoff some of the people that the Clinton's still owe.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:46 pm to rds dc
So what you're saying is Republican Senators don't care if the President is a criminal, so long as he's Republican?
Yeah no shite. We already knew that. The entire partly is completely devoid of moral or principle.
Yeah no shite. We already knew that. The entire partly is completely devoid of moral or principle.
This post was edited on 12/5/17 at 10:48 pm
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:47 pm to WeeWee
quote:
because after all the dems and GOPs are all members of the uniparty.
They are.
And what is the one single thing that neither the GOP nor Dems can tolerate? Some non-politician Outsider businessman to waltz into Wash DC and show We the People: 1) FedGov doesn't need to be so powerful; 2) FedGov doesn't need to have so many regulations; 3) FedGov can function better and more efficiently with fewer employees; 4) FedGov CAN "look out for #1" -- the USA; 5) Lobbyists don't need to have so much power and influence.
I personally guarantee you that neither the GOP nor the Dems want some Outsider to demonstrate any of the above because that would de-rail the Trillion Dollar Gravy Train that's given Generational Wealth to career Wash DC politicians and careerists.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
In reality, this is the last ditch effort to payoff some of the people that the Clinton's still owe.
I don't follow how. Could you elaborate?
I like your ideas, though. I say that you could be right.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:49 pm to Champagne
quote:. How? By tweeting Britain First propaganda? How can Britain and the USA both be #1? What is this, Sesame Street?
4) FedGov CAN "look out for #1" -- the USA;
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:51 pm to rds dc
quote:
The Ds will most likely lose seats in the Senate.
I agree that the dems will probably lose seats, but I lurked on DU and R/politics yesterday (watching the lib melt over the travel ban) and they were throwing all kinds of crazy scenarios to retaking the Senate. Most of the scenarios were extemely unrealistic, but they are 3 GOP senators from states that HRC won up for re-election. So there is a chance that the dems could pick up some seats.
quote:
Also, the GOPe isn't what it used to be and end of the day most politicians are slime that hold reelection above everything else.
If the dems regain the House and pick up a seat or 2 or 3 in the Senate, you will have R's saying that Trump is killing the party and that replacing him with Pence is the only way that any of them will get re-elected in 2020.
quote:
Any R that votes to impeach Trump will not win reelection.
I know that and you know that, but the spineless politicians in DC don't. They will believe the inaccurate polls and think it is a good idea. Just like pre- 2016, they believed the inaccurate polls and thought that Jeb! had the best chance at beating HRC.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:52 pm to JJthomson
quote:
So what you're saying is Republican Senators don't care if the President is a criminal, so long as he's Republican?
Yeah no shite. We already knew that. The entire partly is completely devoid of moral or principle.
No, if there was a legit smoking gun charge then the public would demand the removal of Trump. However, there is no smoking gun. If Mueller comes with obstruction based on interpretations of words in private conversations or some obscure financial crime that no one understands, then that will be laughed off. Also, all of DC has lost any high ground on this issue. There is no one in DC that can stand up and righteously say, "Trump should be impeached because what he did doesn't happen every single day in this town"
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:53 pm to Champagne
quote:
They are.
And what is the one single thing that neither the GOP nor Dems can tolerate? Some non-politician Outsider businessman to waltz into Wash DC and show We the People: 1) FedGov doesn't need to be so powerful; 2) FedGov doesn't need to have so many regulations; 3) FedGov can function better and more efficiently with fewer employees; 4) FedGov CAN "look out for #1" -- the USA; 5) Lobbyists don't need to have so much power and influence.
I personally guarantee you that neither the GOP nor the Dems want some Outsider to demonstrate any of the above because that would de-rail the Trillion Dollar Gravy Train that's given Generational Wealth to career Wash DC politicians and careerists.
Exactly and if even the chance, I would not be surprised if the uniparty members that claim to be republican, joined with their uniparty breathern in the democratic party and voted against Trump.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:54 pm to JJthomson
quote:
Yeah no shite. We already knew that. The entire partly is completely devoid of moral or principle.
Well atleast the republicans weren't the party that nominated someone as corrupt as HRC.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:56 pm to rds dc
I do think the Dems will retake the House with a healthy majority in 2018.
If Mueller does report evidence of obstruction of justice and there's a brouhaha in the media that something must be done, the Democrats would be wise to push for censure and not removal. They could make a much stronger case, would be way more likely to win over GOP votes, and could still hammer Trump as "historically corrupt" to GOP voters and the "first ever successfully impeached President" to their shrill base.
Absolutely nothing revealed to this point merits removal, and the politically saavy move would be to frame Trump as an anchor around the GOP's neck and keep him all 4 years. Of course, when was the last time an establishment political party made a wise choice with a view towards the future instead of a short-sided miscalculation?
If Mueller does report evidence of obstruction of justice and there's a brouhaha in the media that something must be done, the Democrats would be wise to push for censure and not removal. They could make a much stronger case, would be way more likely to win over GOP votes, and could still hammer Trump as "historically corrupt" to GOP voters and the "first ever successfully impeached President" to their shrill base.
Absolutely nothing revealed to this point merits removal, and the politically saavy move would be to frame Trump as an anchor around the GOP's neck and keep him all 4 years. Of course, when was the last time an establishment political party made a wise choice with a view towards the future instead of a short-sided miscalculation?
Posted on 12/5/17 at 10:57 pm to Champagne
quote:
I don't follow how. Could you elaborate?
Who do you think is getting fat off the money Mueller is spreading around town?
Posted on 12/5/17 at 11:00 pm to rds dc
Oh, I get it now.
Posted on 12/5/17 at 11:00 pm to rds dc
quote:this changes as his approval rating drops...
Any R that votes to impeach Trump will not win reelection. They know this. Flake is a perfect example of what happens when a R thinks they are bigger than Trump.
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