- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Mid-Terms Depend on Mueller
Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:52 pm to Hawkeye95
Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:52 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
Dems will have energy and be mobilized. They are organizing right now. And will be very prepared for the ground game in 2018.
You're setting yourself up for a bigly disappointment. Everyone knows Democrats don't vote in midterms,
2
Posted on 8/4/17 at 12:56 pm to LSUTigersVCURams
quote:
You're setting yourself up for a bigly disappointment. Everyone knows Democrats don't vote in midterms,
Democratic turnout will be up over 2014/2010.
If Rs show up at 10/14 levels, then there will be minimal gains in the house and losses in the senate. But I would be really surprised for Dems to not gain CO-6/CA-49. They were whisper close in 2016.
This post was edited on 8/4/17 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:09 pm to LSUTigersVCURams
quote:
Everyone knows Democrats don't vote in midterms,
Has everyone forgotten the lesson of the 2006 mid-terms already?
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:12 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
They were successful in 2008, as they had a message!
Well - it was still, "We're not W!" Now, couple that with just how bad W. had been, Obama's charm and demographic novelty - and THAT was a winning combination.
One that will be difficult to replicate, IMHO. The Dems have a clear identity crisis. If they pivot back to the white working class, they're literally turning their backs on the identity politics monopoly they've worked half a century to cultivate. If they double down on identity and victim politics, I think they continue to lose ground.
Again, JMHO.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:16 pm to Bard
quote:
If Mueller and his team find concrete evidence of collaboration that is of such a level as to lead to Impeachment, look for the Dems to use that to run roughshod through the mid-terms and possible the next Presidential election as Trump supporters stay home in droves while an over-energized Democrat party surges.
I believe this would have the exact opposite effect on Trump supporters, and even gain him more support. No one buys this Russia collusion nonsense other than the Dem true believers. I even know liberals who are tired of this sideshow. I think you would see even more blowback on the Dems if some garbage charge gets levied, which is what it would have to be.
This post was edited on 8/4/17 at 1:19 pm
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:18 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
Well - it was still, "We're not W!" Now, couple that with just how bad W. had been, Obama's charm and demographic novelty - and THAT was a winning combination.
Which is funny, in hindsight, since they all loved W after Obama legt office and they figured out Trump is actually their President. Bush hadn't been discussed so favorably in over a decade.
This post was edited on 8/4/17 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:20 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:quote:
They were successful in 2008, as they had a message!
Well - it was still, "We're not W!" Now, couple that with just how bad W. had been, Obama's charm and demographic novelty - and THAT was a winning combination.
Wrong election. This is a mid-term and much more akin to 2006.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:24 pm to Bard
quote:
Wrong election. This is a mid-term and much more akin to 2006.
I was responding to a comment about 2008.
A better analogue to this might be 2002, although to be fair, Trump isn't riding high on some wave based on strong executive action in the War on Terror(tm).
But, the table just isn't very favorable for the Dems for 2018 - particularly the senate. I mean Kid Rock looks to be a legitimate threat to flip a Dem senate seat.
15 months is a long time.
This post was edited on 8/4/17 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:26 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
Well - it was still, "We're not W!" Now, couple that with just how bad W. had been, Obama's charm and demographic novelty - and THAT was a winning combination.
it was a winning combination. He destroyed mccain. But he had a message - yes we can. Plus he had a platform. Healthcare, end the endless wars, financial regulation, end bush tax cuts, immigration reform.
He flopped on most of that, but it was a pretty robust message. Certainly more than we saw from hillary last fall.
Central to that was "let us roll back all of the awful things bush did"
quote:
One that will be difficult to replicate, IMHO. The Dems have a clear identity crisis. If they pivot back to the white working class, they're literally turning their backs on the identity politics monopoly they've worked half a century to cultivate. If they double down on identity and victim politics, I think they continue to lose ground.
They absolutely have issues with what the party looks like and stands for. Losing last fall sort brought that up. And they have to do something about it.
IMHO, Republicans are in a worse spot. Not b.c their party is more fractured but b.c winning papers over the problems. Republicans have for decades stood for conservative policies, yet trump is popular with their base and he isn't a true conservative. How are they going to reconcile it? With that said, they at least have policies to run on. What do the democrats have? $15/min wage?
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:28 pm to GumboPot
quote:
It's the midterms. Democrats rarely show up for midterms.
2006 Iraq War = Tsunami
2018 Chance to Impeach = Fired Up Dem Base
Trump has to get GOP to show up
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:29 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
With that said, they at least have policies to run on. What do the democrats have? $15/min wage?
They'd get a lot more traction if they would put marijuana legalization on the platform.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:31 pm to Bard
quote:
Wrong election. This is a mid-term and much more akin to 2006.
31 Seat gain by Pelosi
Big difference was Rahm recruiting great candidates and the country not knowing the Pelosi agenda.
This post was edited on 8/4/17 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:34 pm to thetigerman
quote:
They'd get a lot more traction if they would put marijuana legalization on the platform.
Legalize Marijuana, Sports Gambling and Prostitution and I'm voting Democrat
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:34 pm to GumboPot
With the lack of spine shown on the ACA R's will stay away as well.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:35 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
Republicans have for decades stood for conservative policies, yet trump is popular with their base and he isn't a true conservative. How are they going to reconcile it?
Ironically, he's more in tune with the principles of their base than most (not all) of the "conservative" Republicans. They were very successful as an opposition party - many got experience during Clinton. But, they've absolutely failed as a majority/majority party through almost 7 months now.
quote:
With that said, they at least have policies to run on.
And a less fickle voting base than the Dems, for sure.
quote:
$15/min wage?
Honestly, Hawk - I don't know what they stand for other than "Tear it all down and give it all away." That works with 19 year olds. Grown arse folks? Not so much.
This post was edited on 8/4/17 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:45 pm to Rakim
quote:
Big difference was Rahm recruiting great candidates and the country not knowing the Pelosi agenda.
i actually think we are going to see some fresh faces from the democrats that will be great candidates.
Probably not for the senate though. But for the house.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:46 pm to Bard
You really see Mueller being wrapped up come midterms 2018?
That's a year away in the fall? And with as much shite as he could decide to wade through, both sides are likely not going to like what he finds. How long did the Whitewater Investigation take? I don't know, but it was years for sure.
That's a year away in the fall? And with as much shite as he could decide to wade through, both sides are likely not going to like what he finds. How long did the Whitewater Investigation take? I don't know, but it was years for sure.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:51 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
Ironically, he's more in tune with the principles of their base that most (not all) of the "conservative" Republicans. They were very successful as an opposition party - many got experience during Clinton. But, they've absolutely failed as a majority/majority party through almost 7 months now.
Yes, but this process is going to be painful. There are a lot of republicans that are not on board with many of trump's policies, especially with regards to defense, trade and immigration. The republican establishment is not in line with his policies, and he doesn't have things like thinktanks and policy groups pushing his agenda. At least not like the establishment does. Cato, heritage, ludwig van mises, AEI, Rand. These thinktanks are the pipeline for Republican policies.
quote:
Honestly, Hawk - I don't know what they stand for other than "Tear it all down and give it all away." That works with 19 year olds. Grown arse folks? Not so much.
I agree that they don't have much of an appeal, but trump ran on a burn it down framework. So there is some appeal to that.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 1:52 pm to Bard
quote:
The last time the GOP had the House, Senate and White House the Dems showed up enough to take both the Senate and House.
Incredibly unlikely they retake the House. Too big a difference.
Most of the Senate elections coming up are for seats being held by Dems, so even though they're not behind by much they won't have many shots at pulling ahead.
Honestly, it'll be in the 2020 elections that will be make or break for the Republicans based on what they've accomplished. Majority of the seats up in the Senate will be Republican, and of course the WH will be up for grabs. If the Republican PARTY continues to shoot itself in the foot, Trump may win (even handily) but find himself with a minority party in the Senate, and only a slim majority in the House.
The only thing that can kill Republicans right now are Republicans. Only problem is that the seem pretty intent on that course.
Posted on 8/4/17 at 2:00 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
trump ran on a burn it down framework.
It was pretty targeted though - vague as "the establishment" might be, he was able to focus the rage at the political class, unchecked immigration, terrorism, bringing jobs/prosperity back. That could have been a Democrat platform in the freakin' 70s. Trump's being crazier than hell only seemed to amplify his appeal.
As many guys as Obama killed with drones in the middle of the night, he sure lost the PR battle that he was soft on terror. The left's cozying up to radical Islam isn't helping on election day, either.
Page 2 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News