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re: Jimmy butler to Minnesota
Posted on 6/23/17 at 11:38 am to Boomshockalocka
Posted on 6/23/17 at 11:38 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:Unless one is game planning against players, nobody needs that information.
No tendencies.
quote:Context is just a pure visual representation. And the few things that it might add, are becoming increasingly quantified. Regardless it's more the how, not the what.
No context for nothing.
1
Posted on 6/23/17 at 11:47 am to c on z
C I'm a big advanced stats guy myself. They are a great great supplement to the eye test. They in no way replace the eye test.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 11:51 am to Boomshockalocka
I'm a huge believer in the intangible aspects of sports. I know there's no equation that accounts for heart, emotions, culture, etc.
That being said, perception bias is a very real thing, and it takes a keen eye to see past that.
I wouldn't trust 99% of people with an eyeball test. Hell, just look at all the older players who say the dumbest shite imaginable all the time
That being said, perception bias is a very real thing, and it takes a keen eye to see past that.
I wouldn't trust 99% of people with an eyeball test. Hell, just look at all the older players who say the dumbest shite imaginable all the time
This post was edited on 6/23/17 at 11:52 am
Posted on 6/23/17 at 12:03 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:It should be the other way around.
They are a great great supplement to the eye test.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 12:12 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:While those things are surely important, their value lies within the outcome and performance. Therefore, they are captured in the data, even though we can't delineate them.
I'm a huge believer in the intangible aspects of sports. I know there's no equation that accounts for heart, emotions, culture, etc.
quote:And this is the fundamental problem with the eye test. We have a slew of cognitive biases that negatively impact our ability to subjectively evaluate and compare. Not to mention, we often don't get a representative sample either.
That being said, perception bias is a very real thing, and it takes a keen eye to see past that.
Just look at the most important eye test: eyewitness testimony. And this testimony is just establishing basic facts, not subjectively evaluating the quality of something. Yet, so many people have been wrongfully convicted because of a failure in the most basic of the eye test.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 12:29 pm to buckeye_vol
Context isn't only visual representation it's the circumstances that create the numbers.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 12:32 pm to Madking
quote:
You're knocking a wing who shot over 48% lol that's insane. Plus you have guys like Dennis Rodman who've led the NBA in FG% you're gonna tell me he's an efficient offensive player or an offensive asset? The reality about Wiggins is he's an A++ athlete who is an advanced defensive player for his age he's 6-8 with an above avg wingspan super quick with great speed and his jump shot has developed 3 years faster than initially expected. He's outstanding running the wing on the break and while he isn't someone who's going to tie you in knots dribbling 10-15 time to get to the hole he has a quick first step and 2 bounce explosion. He's ahead of the curve for his age both offensively and defensively and will be a great weapon alongside Jimmy Butler.
Again, he's not a good defender. Players shot 3.3% higher against him than they did against the rest of the league. 21st worst among players with 60 games and 7 or more FGAs defended per game, behind noted defensive stalwarts like Korver and Redick. He actually got worse than he was in 2015-16.
As far as his overall production, he was worse pretty much across the board in all metrics. His outside shooting improved slightly, but for all the improvement he made between his 1st and 2nd year in the league, at best he was flat in 2017, and at worse, he declined as a player.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 12:40 pm to Caplewood
quote:
He's only 23.... I think it's a bit early to make this kind of a blanket statement
Not really. 4 full seasons in, and the track of his volume of usage is pretty clear. He's right around League Average at absolute peak.
There isn't a single situation where you would rather have him as a a lead guard over a Kyrie, a Curry, Russ, IT, Chris Paul, Lillard, Kemba, Conley, Lowry-- and that's before getting into arguments about similar players or rookies, or at least guys who don't have serious flaws.
Being an average guy at your peak isn't bad. Its not a recipe for success, though.
This post was edited on 6/23/17 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 6/23/17 at 1:07 pm to buckeye_vol
I don't fall victim to any of the cognitive biases.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 1:18 pm to BoardReader
Conley, Thomas, Walker and Lowry all had similar production to Schroder at around the same age and experience. It wasn't until their 5th or 6th season that any of those guys really broke out. Kemba in particular was looking like Brandon Jennings 2.0 until he drastically improved his three point shooting and finishing at the rim in year 5.
I would say that he compares fairly well from a skillset and athleticism standpoint to Conley. Whether or not he puts it all together and takes the next step like those guys did is anyone's guess.
I would say that he compares fairly well from a skillset and athleticism standpoint to Conley. Whether or not he puts it all together and takes the next step like those guys did is anyone's guess.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 1:23 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
I don't fall victim to any of the cognitive biases.
Only a clueless person lying to himself and/or everyone else would say something like this. You are human. All humans have biases. That you would refuse to admit this suggests that you are even more biased because you refuse to recognize it within yourself.
This is why you get the reaction that you do around here. You are clearly full of shite. But I guess it's all good in internet fun.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 1:29 pm to Peazey
I get a reaction Bc I'm one of the top hoops posters here. When you are at the top people are gonna hate and try to take you down. it is what it is. I enjoy the efforts some make, as futile as they are.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 1:33 pm to Madking
As for the Butler deal I like it for Minnesota but I'm not sure if I love it. They're clearly better now but what about 3-4 years from now when Butler is starting to decline? Which is the window they should really be aiming for as that's likely when Towns and Wiggins are starting to peak. This also most likely takes them out of the lottery from here on out so their odds of adding anyone significant through the draft are lessened.
I do believe Pekovic's contract comes off the books though so they should be able to add a couple of good players in free agency.
I do believe Pekovic's contract comes off the books though so they should be able to add a couple of good players in free agency.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 1:50 pm to imraged
quote:
I would say that he compares fairly well from a skillset and athleticism standpoint to Conley. Whether or not he puts it all together and takes the next step like those guys did is anyone's guess.
Que?
Take off the advocacy glasses. This is the same problem that Wolves fans have with Rubio.
"He's so fun to watch."
"He's just so skilled."
"He could put it all together. Someday."
You are what you are what you are. There's no room for that kind of sentiment, unless you want to be a perpetual bottom dweller.
I generally think Conley gets slightly overrated, but he's a night-and-day better player than peak Schroder ever will be.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 1:55 pm to BoardReader
quote:
I do believe Pekovic's contract comes off the books though so they should be able to add a couple of good players in free agency.
They waived Pek 2 days ago. I think the league still has to clear the medical necessity aspect of it, but if everything goes right and they refuse the rights to their RFAs, they'll be right around $25M under cap.
This post was edited on 6/23/17 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 6/23/17 at 2:03 pm to slackster
What those numbers compared to the stalwarts you mentioned don't provide is who he was guarding. It's easy for korver to put up similar numbers when he's matched up against a Mike Dunleavy type than it is for Wiggins vs Lebron Durant exc.. This is an example of the holes in the numbers argument. As far as his offense compared to the stars above I mentioned of course he isn't there yet he's like 22 or 23 years old compare him to his contemporaries like Stanley Johnson Winston Justice and other wing players his age he's much better than those guys plus he's been their top option he's being checked by the top players in the world while these other guys are being guarded by the 7th to 10th man in their opponents rotation.
This post was edited on 6/23/17 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 6/23/17 at 2:25 pm to Madking
quote:
Context isn't only visual representation it's the circumstances that create the numbers.
And if you can't quantify that, how are you supposed to use that information, outside of one off scenarios?
ETA: one off scenarios are useless, trends are what you are looking for.
This post was edited on 6/23/17 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 6/23/17 at 2:32 pm to Madking
quote:
What those numbers compared to the stalwarts you mentioned don't provide is who he was guarding.
Actually Diff% takes into account the shooting percentage that a player shoots versus you, versus that player's overall shooting percentage.
You're arguing a moot point.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 2:45 pm to imraged
quote:
As for the Butler deal I like it for Minnesota but I'm not sure if I love it. They're clearly better now but what about 3-4 years from now when Butler is starting to decline? Which is the window they should really be aiming for as that's likely when Towns and Wiggins are starting to peak. This also most likely takes them out of the lottery from here on out so their odds of adding anyone significant through the draft are lessened.
they were trending towards end of lottery, out of lottery anyways IMO. they blew the most big leads in NBA history (i dont know the actual stat, something like that) last year. with another year under thibs and the youngsters progressing, they were gonna contend for the playoffs this year without butler.
so the draft pick scenario is kinda meaningless IMO.
now, they will get meaningful game and playoff experience for wiggins and towns and should be able to compete just fine with 30 year old butler, 26 year old wiggins and 25 year old towns in 2-4 years (again, not sure what the exact ages are off the top of my head, but it'll be close to that i believe). not to mention, your odds of attracting free agent talent when you have a promising team is light years better than sitting at the 12th-20th pick in the draft or wherever they'd end up without butler.
overall, i don't really see the downside.
This post was edited on 6/23/17 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 6/23/17 at 3:19 pm to Epic Cajun
Epy I know you're not aware of this and TBH I wouldn't expect you to be. But one of the big issues with sportsvu data defensively is that it assigns the shot (defensively) to the player who is closest to the shot. That player isn't necessarily the defender who was assigned to the guy taking the shot. Or maybe he was supposed to be guarding that guy and one other or more Bc the defense is loaded up on the opposite side of the court. just a few considerations bro 
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