re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

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I agree with your sentiment but not your timeline

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Good point with your observations. I respect your opinion. But I still have a different take. Since there have been two very significant macro events impacting the last and current halvings I think you have to take those into account.

The last halving was different from the first two in that it's run (both timeline and amplitude of its run) were largely impacted and muted by COVID in a negative way.

This upcoming halving is much more impacted in my opinion by the SEC approval of the Spot ETFs and how Bitcoin adoption is now spreading worldwide. Bitcoin is now a brand new asset class available to an order of magnitude more people around the world. Institutional investment even though it has already been hugely impacting, is literally just getting started. Bitcoin is going to surpass Gold in market cap and actually bleed off market cap from all other asset classes.

I see this upcoming halving having an impact closer to the first two with face melting parabolic gains lasting 12 to 18 months after the halving.

That's what I think. You might be right and we will see. For all of us pro Bitcoin folks, I hope on our behalf that I am right. I am certainly all in and arbitrage trading dips and pullbacks for at least 12 months after the halving and likely through mid 2025 as I currently believe is the time to take some profits.