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Posted on 4/26/17 at 8:53 pm to barry
quote:
I'd say my biggest concern in the short-term, meaning next year is TSLA actually hitting its projected gross margins on 25% on the model 3. I read all the reasons they are supposed to be hitting them this year but I just can't see them getting that sort of efficiency the first year of a mass car rollout in the volume magnitude of 6-10x their current year production.
It's very likely that there's going to be some ups and downs in the short term, but anyone with the cash and patience for a longer term buy is gonna make some serious money. It's definitely more than a car company, I don't care what some analysts are saying. Tesla is setting itself up to dominate the electric car sector with its gigafactory and their recharging network throughout the country. It's not much of a gamble if you're at least somewhat long on it
Posted on 4/26/17 at 8:54 pm to leoj
I will say this Elon isn't an idiot, that whole "stormy in shortville" tweet recently was at like $293 or so, he had to know this ER next week was gonna be solid, he wasn't gonna set himself up for epic trolling if the stock was about to tank.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 8:56 pm to dabigfella
quote:
I mean oil isn't going anywhere, its still used in a bajillion things other than cars but I think when we look back in 100 years and see that we used to dig up oil,refine it, and pump it into cars to power them we will laugh as we can also power cars using the sun and solar panels. It's sad when you see oil spills, that tanker truck explosion posted in the OT a few weeks ago, and dangerous things that come from oil.
Is tesla perfect today? no its not, hell its charging stations still rely on fossil fuels, but the long term goal obviously is solar panels powering the charging stations to charge the cars. It's not stuff thats going to happen overnight, but to me its the biggest power shift of our lifetime and tesla has an incredible product to lead the charge at this point. I wish other auto companies would follow suit but after being bearish for a long time, I finally understood why big auto doesn't/ can't.
Looking at Tesla as a tech company is a good idea. When I look at Tesla I can only associate them with growth. Every dollar goes back into that business. The gigafactory is such a huge endeavor, Panasonic was smart to side with Elon. Baby steps but the super charger network is such a cool idea and seems to be working well, and it's only expanding around the world. I could type paragraphs but it would be a waste of time
quote:
Lots of that electricity will be made with the shite tons of stupid cheap NG we are sitting on.
No doubt, and LA will still be broke while the oil companies rape the state of it's natural resources.
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 8:57 pm
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:01 pm to Old Money
I saw that rendering yesterday, what an incredible opportunity to build out the "gas" stations of the future. The thing with the superchargers is they're mainly used for traveling not so much day to day charging. There was some analyst who put out a report that it would cost $8B for Tesla to make superchargers as accessible as gas stations are currently, every 4 min apart. Here's a link
LINK
The big thing I think that analyst missed is, tesla doesn't need to bc every house is a gas station in that sense and if he did an analysis on what it cost to put a gas station at every house it would be trillions of dollars with underground storage tanks and pumps involved.
Charging is slow at home, yes, but if you plug it in overnight its ready by morning. The average person can go a full day on 200+ miles, key word average person, yes some people need more. The supercharger network is perfectly spaced out and the navigation system guides you to the supercharger and tells you how many are free before you arrive. You stop and recharge in 30-40 minutes, go use the restroom, eat at a local restaurant near the charger and return. Again thats now in 2017, surely by 2027 it wont take 30 min to charge the battery. I see them at whole foods when I shop too, but those are different chargers, not from tesla, but I was told they're still free, not sure if thats true.
Pretty damn cool to me that you can drive all over the country free of charge.
LINK
The big thing I think that analyst missed is, tesla doesn't need to bc every house is a gas station in that sense and if he did an analysis on what it cost to put a gas station at every house it would be trillions of dollars with underground storage tanks and pumps involved.
Charging is slow at home, yes, but if you plug it in overnight its ready by morning. The average person can go a full day on 200+ miles, key word average person, yes some people need more. The supercharger network is perfectly spaced out and the navigation system guides you to the supercharger and tells you how many are free before you arrive. You stop and recharge in 30-40 minutes, go use the restroom, eat at a local restaurant near the charger and return. Again thats now in 2017, surely by 2027 it wont take 30 min to charge the battery. I see them at whole foods when I shop too, but those are different chargers, not from tesla, but I was told they're still free, not sure if thats true.
Pretty damn cool to me that you can drive all over the country free of charge.
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:07 pm to Old Money
back to the guy who said tesla wouldn't be around without subsidies.....
It's sort of true that Tesla wouldn't exist without clean air incentives. They would have never attempted it. Why bother with it? Cars in general would be a lot dirtier without various rules and regulations and such. I'm from originally from CA and if you look at pictures of LA in the 50s, it had smog as bad as the big cities in china today, it was awful till we began to regulate pollution standards in the US.Big auto didn't fix CA smog, CA did via clean air regulations.
Big auto did their thing: Big auto opposed the clean air regulation improvements every step of the way, of course. Point being the car industry has long history of needing regulations and incentives to keep them from killing people and needlessly drowning cities in smog. ZEVs are just of the more modern implementations of these goals. System works, China is copying it and setting more ambitious EV standards
It's sort of true that Tesla wouldn't exist without clean air incentives. They would have never attempted it. Why bother with it? Cars in general would be a lot dirtier without various rules and regulations and such. I'm from originally from CA and if you look at pictures of LA in the 50s, it had smog as bad as the big cities in china today, it was awful till we began to regulate pollution standards in the US.Big auto didn't fix CA smog, CA did via clean air regulations.
Big auto did their thing: Big auto opposed the clean air regulation improvements every step of the way, of course. Point being the car industry has long history of needing regulations and incentives to keep them from killing people and needlessly drowning cities in smog. ZEVs are just of the more modern implementations of these goals. System works, China is copying it and setting more ambitious EV standards
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:14 pm to dabigfella
I was just about to post that I'm waiting for the day they decide to set up shop like a gas station and have a few in every city. I have no doubt it will happen. Just in the area my parents live (Miami), within a 30 min radius they're building 4 new super chargers to make that idea more of a reality.
You're right on the at home charging, who wants to go to the gas station anymore? And as it currently stands, you can travel just about anywhere within the US with a Tesla (it just takes a bit longer due to charging, but the car plans the whole route out for you with charge points and estimated battery life) I also like how the superchargers tend to have food and hotels around, it's an awesome program
LINK
In Indianapolis there are a lot of EV charging points I see Tesla's at all the time, it's pretty awesome. A lot are free but many cost a few bucks at most. better than the whatever amount I pay with my Jeep, I stopped looking
You're right on the at home charging, who wants to go to the gas station anymore? And as it currently stands, you can travel just about anywhere within the US with a Tesla (it just takes a bit longer due to charging, but the car plans the whole route out for you with charge points and estimated battery life) I also like how the superchargers tend to have food and hotels around, it's an awesome program
LINK
quote:
I see them at whole foods when I shop too, but those are different chargers, not from tesla, but I was told they're still free, not sure if thats true.
In Indianapolis there are a lot of EV charging points I see Tesla's at all the time, it's pretty awesome. A lot are free but many cost a few bucks at most. better than the whatever amount I pay with my Jeep, I stopped looking
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 9:16 pm
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:17 pm to Old Money
are they really building 4 in miami? I wanted to lease one for my vacation home there a year ago, but the only supercharger close by was like 30 minutes north of miami near ft lauderdale. I didn't see any superchargers on the way to the keys and I had to have a car capable of driving to naples, the keys,orlando when we were down there. If they ever built one on the way to the keys I would definitely lease one for down there.
I also believe with the infrastructure in place tesla will one day be charging non-tesla's to charge at their stations, nothing confirmed, but a guess if I had to make one. I find it hard to believe every automaker is gonna invest in a network of chargers when they probably won't mass produce BEV's
either way its a massive paradigm shift coming imo, i could be wrong who knows, but the people ive spoken with who own teslas cant fathom going back to a non-tesla. Tesla sold more $100k+ cars than anyone last year, extrapolate that dominance into cheaper sectors and I dont see how they wouldn't outsell any brand in any segment if they could produce the quantity of vehicle needed. They cant now but elon promised plans for 3 more gigafactories this year......
I also believe with the infrastructure in place tesla will one day be charging non-tesla's to charge at their stations, nothing confirmed, but a guess if I had to make one. I find it hard to believe every automaker is gonna invest in a network of chargers when they probably won't mass produce BEV's
either way its a massive paradigm shift coming imo, i could be wrong who knows, but the people ive spoken with who own teslas cant fathom going back to a non-tesla. Tesla sold more $100k+ cars than anyone last year, extrapolate that dominance into cheaper sectors and I dont see how they wouldn't outsell any brand in any segment if they could produce the quantity of vehicle needed. They cant now but elon promised plans for 3 more gigafactories this year......
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 9:20 pm
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:22 pm to dabigfella
Look at the map I linked
They're adding a Homestead one just for the Keys drive
2 more in downtown Miami (Brickell/Wynwood), 1 in Aventura, and another in Plantation. Downtown Ft Lauderdale needs one and I'm sure that will happen
Hopefully these get built pretty soon, I want a Model 3 after all the initial bugs are fixed
They're adding a Homestead one just for the Keys drive
2 more in downtown Miami (Brickell/Wynwood), 1 in Aventura, and another in Plantation. Downtown Ft Lauderdale needs one and I'm sure that will happen
Hopefully these get built pretty soon, I want a Model 3 after all the initial bugs are fixed
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 9:23 pm
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:25 pm to Old Money
That's awesome, I do see this company called evercharge has a few boxes at my condo there, but I spoke with an owner and he pays but it's just a few bucks no biggie but yea you can't go to the keys and back as is. One guy I spoke with had a p100d he told me the 320 miles was highway miles and he got over 500 miles on a charge as long as it was in the city bc of the regenerative braking.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:33 pm to dabigfella
quote:
That's awesome, I do see this company called evercharge has a few boxes at my condo there, but I spoke with an owner and he pays but it's just a few bucks no biggie but yea you can't go to the keys and back as is. One guy I spoke with had a p100d he told me the 320 miles was highway miles and he got over 500 miles on a charge as long as it was in the city bc of the regenerative braking.
Jeez, if that's true that would last me a month. And even paying a 3rd party to charge is much cheaper than buying gas
Another interesting note, my friend works at the Naples dealer and posted a few days back:
"Model S 100D is going up $5,000 and Model S P100D is going up $5,500. Model X 100D is going up $1,000 and P100D is going up $9,500 - all taking effect on 4/24. We have had a flood of orders these last few days before pricing changes. (75 and 90 battery pack sizes went down in price)"
Hiking the prices up after out selling the S-Class because they know people will continue to buy more. Pretty ballsy
quote:
They cant now but elon promised plans for 3 more gigafactories this year......
I didn't know that. Well he'll be 96 gigfactories away from powering the world supposedly
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:37 pm to Old Money
The p100d outperforms a $1.5m Porsche 918 to 60, an extra $5000 won't kill anyone, it's still priced well below a Mercedes s65 which is lile $230k and doesn't even have performance anywhere near it
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:37 pm to dabigfella
Great insight, I appreciate posts such as these. Just wish your recommendations (Tesla & Wynn) weren't so expensive to own for recent graduates.
I am curious to hear what you think is the biggest weakness for Tesla.
I am curious to hear what you think is the biggest weakness for Tesla.
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 9:58 pm
Posted on 4/26/17 at 9:49 pm to dabigfella
quote:
The p100d outperforms a $1.5m Porsche 918 to 60, an extra $5000 won't kill anyone, it's still priced well below a Mercedes s65 which is lile $230k and doesn't even have performance anywhere near it
Funny how an EV has become a car guy vehicle, I remember shitting on EVs a few years back. I drove a P90d and was blown away
I'll have to check out your WYNN dd
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 9:50 pm
Posted on 4/26/17 at 10:00 pm to Old Money
Look I was a gigantic tesla bear early on, the whole concept sounded novel and dumb. I spend a ton of time reading, all sorts of stuff investment related. I read a ton of bullish/bearish pieces but at the end of the day after all my reading I realized that the only reason big auto doesn't have a whole fleet of EV's ready to compete is bc simply they cannot. The shackles of the industry are dragging them down, and until they're able to dump off all these franchised car dealers they wont ever be able to compete.
Its funny that so many congressmen and senators own these big car dealerships and oddly enough thats why they're opposed to tesla's direct sales model bc it just wrecks their world.
Big auto has a big problem and its their current model which calls for $30M in dead money to sit around a dealership while tesla has 1 fully loaded model of each car at their dealers. Big auto relies on service to profit while tesla relies on sales of batteries to profit. Big auto can't figure out how to profit on batteries while keeping their dealers in place, its quite a conundrum but those lack of shackles is why tesla is going to dominate imo. They don't have to worry about all the problems big auto deals with.
It's definitely the most fascinating story of our lifetimes imo, will we as a society really shift away from the gas powered engine? If you look at it, the gas engine hasn't really improved much over the last 20 years, its been nominal improvements while big auto touts things like bluetooth and sound systems as their big upgrades. Tesla meanwhile started in 2007 and launched the model S in 2012 and 5 years later improved the battery so much that its the worlds fastest car now, who the hell saw that coming in 2012? Nobody
There's a monster tech battle coming and as an investor do you want your money on Elon Musk(Tesla) or Mary Barra(GM) or Mark Fields(Ford).....I think that question answers itself and its almost comical to think of a tech battle of musk vs barra even being a legit thing. Thats why I scratch my head when people want to go long ford or gm and call them undervalued and tesla overvalued. Mobileye just sold its trash software for $15B, Tesla dropped them to develop their own tesla vision software......Id venture that alone is worth way over the $15B mobileye got so when you see the market cap of tesla at $50B to me it still seems cheap while every pundit on tv rants about how wildly expensive it is vs a ford or gm.
Its funny that so many congressmen and senators own these big car dealerships and oddly enough thats why they're opposed to tesla's direct sales model bc it just wrecks their world.
Big auto has a big problem and its their current model which calls for $30M in dead money to sit around a dealership while tesla has 1 fully loaded model of each car at their dealers. Big auto relies on service to profit while tesla relies on sales of batteries to profit. Big auto can't figure out how to profit on batteries while keeping their dealers in place, its quite a conundrum but those lack of shackles is why tesla is going to dominate imo. They don't have to worry about all the problems big auto deals with.
It's definitely the most fascinating story of our lifetimes imo, will we as a society really shift away from the gas powered engine? If you look at it, the gas engine hasn't really improved much over the last 20 years, its been nominal improvements while big auto touts things like bluetooth and sound systems as their big upgrades. Tesla meanwhile started in 2007 and launched the model S in 2012 and 5 years later improved the battery so much that its the worlds fastest car now, who the hell saw that coming in 2012? Nobody
There's a monster tech battle coming and as an investor do you want your money on Elon Musk(Tesla) or Mary Barra(GM) or Mark Fields(Ford).....I think that question answers itself and its almost comical to think of a tech battle of musk vs barra even being a legit thing. Thats why I scratch my head when people want to go long ford or gm and call them undervalued and tesla overvalued. Mobileye just sold its trash software for $15B, Tesla dropped them to develop their own tesla vision software......Id venture that alone is worth way over the $15B mobileye got so when you see the market cap of tesla at $50B to me it still seems cheap while every pundit on tv rants about how wildly expensive it is vs a ford or gm.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 10:30 pm to hiltacular
LINK
Hiltacular it looks like they've averted a crisis with a strike by raising the pay.
Hiltacular it looks like they've averted a crisis with a strike by raising the pay.
quote:
The union said job guarantees and the offer of employee stock options have significantly reduced the prospect of a strike. Still, IG Metall is demanding a collective wage bargaining contract and improved pay. The union has complained that pay at Grohmann is 25 to 30 percent below an industry-wide collective agreement for the metalworker electric industry.
The head of Grohmann's works council, Uwe Herzig, said Tesla had offered another 1,000 euro ($1,089) one-off payment after Easter, on top of job guarantees, pay rises and stock options.
In March Tesla offered employees a pay raise of 150 euros a month. This was followed up just before Easter with an offer of 10,000 euros in stock options for four years, and a pledge to guarantee jobs for five years, Herzig said.
Posted on 4/26/17 at 11:23 pm to dabigfella
quote:
dabigfella
maybe its time to start looking at the options again for me... I need my NKE to get to $56.50 so I can dump it and start looking for an entry again.
Posted on 4/27/17 at 2:22 am to dabigfella
quote:
4) Look at the balance sheet of say Mercedes, $140B revenue, and $8B profit. That's incredibly low margin, Tesla does those same sales it would net $45B+.
Giving out all this advice, and you don't know the difference between a balance sheet and an income statement?
Posted on 4/27/17 at 4:38 am to MusclesofBrussels
You nailed me there Brussels, all the morsels of advice I put in this this thread and one typo and you just solved the mystery of the year. The scam known as dabigfella will now unravel. Congratulations on all your fine work. Thanks for adding real insight to the thread.
Posted on 4/27/17 at 6:05 am to dabigfella
Cash burn rate is an important consideration when investing in companies like Tessa. I found this article interesting.
LINK
LINK
quote:
A $9 million hedge fund concluded that Tesla Motors (in which I have no financial interest) will burn through its cash. The key assumption underlying that conclusion is that if the company charges $35,000 for its Model 3, Tesla will lose so much money that its cash will go up in flames.
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