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re: For those hoping Kansas would go Democrat tonight...

Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:05 am to
Posted by Machine
Earth
Member since May 2011
6001 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:05 am to
well i for one am i'm shocked that a midwestern state voted republican
Posted by DawgsLife
Member since Jun 2013
59009 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:12 am to
I suspect you get their point. several liberal posters were saying the vote would swing the Democrats way.
The Democratic Party is supposed to be an invigorated party since the election, and yet the Democratic nominee got 30,000 fewer votes than last time.

ETA
I will say that I don't know or care....just saying what others have posted in this thread. Just seems rather funny, that now the Democrats are not surprised that they lost?
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 10:13 am
Posted by CorporateTiger
Member since Aug 2014
10700 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:14 am to
I mean it's a special election, raw vote totals on either side done really matter.

Special elections are always weird and unpredictable because of the low turnout.
Posted by WaveHog
Austin, TX
Member since May 2008
6968 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:14 am to
quote:

You are comparing the Cong race to the Pres. race for maximum effect

The last Cong race the Repub got 60%. This time he got 54%. 6% difference in an off cycle isn't something to give you hope about


and you are using only the repub share for maximum effect. the democratic candidate got 29% in the last congressional race and 45% last night, so you are excluding a 15 pt increase for the (D)s. 2016 diff was 31%, last night it was less than 7%. still a 20 pt swing

2017:
Republican Ron Estes 52.5%
Democratic James Thompson 45.7%


2016:
Republican Mike Pompeo Incumbent 60.7%
Democratic Daniel Giroux 29.6%

2014:
Republican Mike Pompeo Incumbent 67%
Democratic Perry Schuckman 33%
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 10:16 am
Posted by WaveHog
Austin, TX
Member since May 2008
6968 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:18 am to
quote:

I suspect you get their point. several liberal posters were saying the vote would swing the Democrats way.


and it did, by 20 pts
quote:

The Democratic Party is supposed to be an invigorated party since the election

as proved by the much higher turnout of registered D's v registered R's last night!

the district has something like a +30 R registration advantage. that the race was close at all and forced Rs to throw everything they could in the final days is pretty remarkable
Posted by Machine
Earth
Member since May 2011
6001 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:19 am to
quote:

The Democratic Party is supposed to be an invigorated party since the election, and yet the Democratic nominee got 30,000 fewer votes than last time.


it truly blows my mind to see the democrats still embracing the SJW crowds after hillary's defeat. anybody that thinks that party is "invigorated" is drinking more koolaid than the trump fans.
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 10:20 am
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
141382 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:21 am to
quote:

Special elections are always weird and unpredictable because of the low turnout.


Yet some dimwit, likely an arkie, will crow anyway.
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
48921 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:21 am to
this is what the democrats have been reduced to? Happy to lose because it was closer than last time?
Posted by WaveHog
Austin, TX
Member since May 2008
6968 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:22 am to
quote:

it truly blows my mind to see the democrats still embracing the SJW crowds after hillary's defeat. how anybody could think that party is "invigorated" is drinking more koolaid than the trump fans.


hillary was a flawed candidate but everyone thought she would win anyways. trump lost the popular vote by 3 million and pulled out an unexpected win.

as a result, there were a historic number of protests across the nation during trump's inauguration, R's are scared to hold town halls because of the pushback they are receiving, and D's are pumping literally millions of dollars into even small races like GA06 where they should have no shot but are doing well.

anybody who thinks the party is not "invigorated" is fooling themselves
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
141382 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:23 am to
Identity politics leads to socialism.

Keep pushing left leftist.
Posted by WaveHog
Austin, TX
Member since May 2008
6968 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:23 am to
quote:

Happy to lose because it was closer than last time?


progress is good
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
141382 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:24 am to
You a genders studies grad?
Posted by Machine
Earth
Member since May 2011
6001 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:24 am to
quote:

anybody who thinks the party is not "invigorated" is fooling themselves

well, as a moderate that didn't vote for either party, looking in, the democrats don't look invigorated. at all.
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 10:25 am
Posted by WaveHog
Austin, TX
Member since May 2008
6968 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:27 am to
quote:

the democrats don't look invigorated. at all.


millions of people in the streets protesting.
recordbreaking donations to liberal groups (and perceived groups, like ACLU).
Republicans shouted down at town halls.
deep, deep red republican districts with 20 pt swings.

what does invigorated look like to you?
Posted by WaveHog
Austin, TX
Member since May 2008
6968 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:28 am to
quote:

Identity politics leads to socialism.


all politics is identity politics. 'white working class' is an identity. rural is an identity. upper-class is an identity.
Posted by Bullethead88
Half way between LSU and Tulane
Member since Dec 2009
4202 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:28 am to
quote:

Races are often closer than expected in "safe" districts because so many voters who support the safe candidate don't bother to vote because they assume the win is a foregone conclusion.


Kinda like what happened in November.
Posted by Bullethead88
Half way between LSU and Tulane
Member since Dec 2009
4202 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:29 am to
quote:

Ended up winning by more than Brownback in '14


Brownback is off the rails.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:33 am to
quote:


I mean it's a special election, raw vote totals on either side done really matter.

Special elections are always weird and unpredictable because of the low turnout.



This. The biggest take away was Dems dominated early voting but failed to deliver on election day. That might be the only useful indicator moving forward. In Georgia, Dems have poured in big money and were doing well in early voting but have now fallen behind. That probably doesn't point to a positive Dem outcome.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69465 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:34 am to
Wavehog, this race was very localized. The Dem avoided trump at all costs and made the race solely about brownback and the state's issues. In 2014 during a GOP wave, Kansas was embarrassingly close for the GOP because of the same issues.


The bigger race is ga-6.

Was vitter vs jbe a sign of a national Dem wave?
Posted by Magician2
Member since Oct 2015
14553 posts
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:40 am to

In 2014 Pompeo had 135,00 votes to his Democratic challengers 67,000.

Mike Pompeo in 2012 got 159,000 votes to his Democratic challengers 79,000.

115,000 for Pompeo in 2010, 74,000 for his challenger.

Tonight, Estes only grabbed 63,000 votes while his opponent got 55,000. The Dem numbers barely moved all things considered, the Republican numbers cratered.


quote:



and you are using only the repub share for maximum effect. the democratic candidate got 29% in the last congressional race and 45% last night, so you are excluding a 15 pt increase for the (D)s. 2016 diff was 31%, last night it was less than 7%. still a 20 pt swing

2017:
Republican Ron Estes 52.5%
Democratic James Thompson 45.7%


2016:
Republican Mike Pompeo Incumbent 60.7%
Democratic Daniel Giroux 29.6%

2014:
Republican Mike Pompeo Incumbent 67%
Democratic Perry Schuckman 33%
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