LSU: 83 - South Carolina: 94 Game Over

LSU is coming off of a 2-win week against bottom-dwellers Mississippi State and Auburn. With the wins, and A&M losing 2, LSU has moved into sole position of 1st place. They travel to Columbia, SC to take on the 2nd place Gamecocks. South Carolina is coming off of a massive road win @Texas A&M which really made a huge statement around the country. South Carolina is 20-3 and 7-3 in SEC. To say their OOC schedule was weak is an understatement. They played all home games except 1 neutral site game. The only Power 5 schools they played were Clemson and St Johns (who is currently 0-11 and on a 14 game losing streak).

Projected Lineups

South Carolina-
F Mindaugas Kacinas 6'7 227 10.5ppg, 5.5rpg,
F Chris Silva 6'9 205 5.7ppg, 4.6rpg,
F Michael Carrera 6'5 212 14.1ppg, 7.2rpg, 49% from 3
G PJ Dozier 6'7 185 7.3ppg, 3.5rpg
G Sindarius Thornwell 6'5 215 12.7ppg. 5.0rpg, 3.6apg
Key Reserves-
G Duane Notice 6'2 212 10.9ppg, 38.5% from 3
F Laimonas Chatkevicius 6'11 251 9.8ppg, 4.5rpg

LSU-
F Craig Victor
F Ben Simmons
G Keith Hornsby
G Jalyn Patterson
G Tim Quarterman

Offensively:
Stats-
PPG: 77.3 (68th nationally)
FG%: 43.7% (170th nationally)
3p%: 35.4% (141st nationally)
FT%: 67.3% (261st nationally)
FTA: 29.5 (1st nationally)
APG: 13.5 (151st nationally)
Turnovers: 14.3 (299th nationally)
Offensive Rebs: 12.2 (16th nationally)
Offensive Efficiency: 1.037 (120th nationally)

Offensively, USCe is not a great scoring team, but they do one thing exceptionally well...attack the basket. They lead the nation in free throw attempts per game. They don't shoot it well once there, but regardless, when you go to the charity stripe 30 times a game, it's a huge advantage.

Michael Carrera has always been an LSU killer, but this year he has stepped his game up and is overall just a terrific player. He has added a jump shot to his arsenal and he's knocking down nearly half of his 3's per game. Thornwell is a former 5-star who has good ability but sometimes plays a bit out of control. USC's front court is made up of Lithuanians and a player from Gabon. The 2 Lithuanians can both step out and stretch a D.

Thornwell, Carrera, and Notice are the big time shooters. PJ Dozier is a very good freshman with elite athletic ability. He's 6'7 so it'll be interesting to see how we match up. Our normal lineup with Patterson could be iffy because of the size disadvantage. USC can also rebound exceptionally well.

Defensively:
Stats-
PPG: 68.8 (103rd nationally)
FG%: 39.3 (20th nationally)
RPG: 41.8 (10th nationally)
SPG: 6.8 (98th nationally)
BPG: 4.4 (64th nationally)
Turnovers Forced: 15.2 (25th nationally)
Off Rebounds Allowed: 8.7 (129th nationally)
Defensive Efficiency: .922 (19th nationally)

South Carolina is a great defensive team. They turn teams over, and they keep opponents from shooting a good percentage. They have lots of experienced players that move their feet well, and they don't get out of position often. Michael Carrera is excellent at drawing chargers, and that's terrifying. Texas A&M's Jalen Jones fouled out, and 4 other players had at least 3 fouls. There were several of those that were charges drawn by USC. LSU will have to play a smart game.

Keys to the Game:

1.) Foul Trouble: As mentioned before, South Carolina is #1 in free throws attempted per game, and do a terrific job causing fouls. LSU's Craig Victor is 8th in the country in fouls per game. He and Ben Simmons must do a good job not getting silly fouls.

2.) Stopping Guard Penetration: A key to keeping big men out of foul trouble is not letting opposing guards into the lane. The beginning of the season LSU was absolutely awful at this. However, they have steadily increased each week as the season has gone on...but there has not been an attacking style of team like this nearly all year.

3.) Team Effort. Ben Simmons averages nearly 8 more points on the road than at home on the season. The last 4 away games of the year, the entire team must help him out and not put the entire load on his shoulders.

Prediction:

South Carolina is a very solid team. They won't wow you with a specific player, or blow you away with athleticism...but they're a very organized, experienced team that plays hard the entire game. Although they come off of an emotional win on Saturday, this game can vault them into 1st place in the SEC. South Carolina is not a deep team at all. They will run about 7-8 out there. Although LSU doesn't have much more depth, overall the talent is deeper, so this could be an advantage for LSU.

As a bubble team, all games are important to LSU. This is a huge opportunity to win on the road against a top 25 opponent. Unfortunately, I think South Carolina will be a little too much at home.

LSU - 68
USC - 73