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re: Fourth Pregnant Zika in the US confirmed: New York City
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:15 pm to NYNolaguy1
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:15 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:Which would probably be more than expected on average, but exponentially more like the fear-mongering would lead us to believe. If we use US and it's vastly superior medicine and diagnostic tools as a baseline, there are 12 per 10,000 born with microcephaly.
So if the trend continues, they'll end up with around 1541 cases of small head.
Using that rate rate and Brazil's birth rate, we would expect about 3600 born with Microcephaly per year or 1200 in 4 months. So 1500 isn't that far outside the expectation.
1
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:16 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:12/10,000 is what is diagnosed AT BIRTH. 25,000 are diagnosed a year in the US because at birth the doctor might not notice
Which would probably be more than expected on average, but exponentially more like the fear-mongering would lead us to believe. If we use US and it's vastly superior medicine and diagnostic tools as a baseline, there are 12 per 10,000 born with microcephaly.
Using that rate rate and Brazil's birth rate, we would expect about 3600 born with Microcephaly per year or 1200 in 4 months. So 1500 isn't that far outside the expectation.
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