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re: Fourth Pregnant Zika in the US confirmed: New York City

Posted on 1/29/16 at 12:58 pm to
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
20960 posts
Posted on 1/29/16 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

It seems that there is cause for concern, but the extent of it is extreme.


So if the trend continues, they'll end up with around 1541 cases of small head.
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
96304 posts
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:00 pm to
quote:

So if the trend continues, they'll end up with around 1541 cases of small head.
Which is still low for their population...... The US has 25,000 a year
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35251 posts
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

So if the trend continues, they'll end up with around 1541 cases of small head.

Which would probably be more than expected on average, but exponentially more like the fear-mongering would lead us to believe. If we use US and it's vastly superior medicine and diagnostic tools as a baseline, there are 12 per 10,000 born with microcephaly.

Using that rate rate and Brazil's birth rate, we would expect about 3600 born with Microcephaly per year or 1200 in 4 months. So 1500 isn't that far outside the expectation.
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