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Message
When it comes to replacing Miles, history is not on our side
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:03 pm
I've come to grips with the idea that it is likely time for a change at LSU. However, finding a coach that can replace the success Miles has had will not be an easy task, and any who thinks otherwise is naïve.
Is there a coach out there that can improve upon what Miles has done? Sure, but the problem is that the vast majority of coaches, particularly the realistic candidates, are likely to underperform Miles.
Here is what history can tell us about how often the grass is greener on the other side:
Nebraska 2003: Fired Frank Solich (.766 W%) and hired Bill Callahan. AD said he would not "let Nebraska gravitate into mediocrity" with Solich. Callahan was fired after 4 seasons and a .551 W%.
Tennessee 2008: Forced Phillip Fulmer (.745 W%) to step down. The Volunteers have hired 3 coaches since then and sport a .482 W% since Fulmer was let go. Of note is the fact that Tennessee still sports a higher all-time winning percentage than LSU, but it did not insulate them from mediocrity.
Florida 2002: Steve Spurrier left after posting a .813 W% at Florida. It was a premier program in the country at the time. The Florida AD was turned down by Mike Shanahan and Bob Stoops. Ron Zook ultimately landed the job and proceeded to go 23-14 over three seasons at a school that took six years to lose 14 games before Zook got there.
Michigan 2007: Forced out Lloyd Carr (.753 W%) for his lackluster record against Ohio State (6-7). Hired hot-shot Rich Rodriguez and limped to a 15-22 record over the next 3 seasons. Followed up Rich Rod with Brady Hoke, who went 31-20 from 2011-2014 including 1-3 against Ohio State.
Alabama 1997: Even Alabama is not infallible. After Gene Stallings retired in 1996 with an .805 W%, it took Alabama 10 seasons, 4 coaches, a .553 W%, and a textbook scandal to get Nick Saban. That record includes their forfeited wins. Officially, Alabama had a losing record during that span and a .486 W%.
All top programs at the time, all failed miserably with their new coaches.
In fact, since 2000, I can only find 4 programs that have replaced coaches with .700+ W% and had even greater success with the newcomer. Furthermore, no program has ever forced out a coach with a winning percentage higher than .700 AND found a successor who generated better results.
TCU "replaced" Dennis Franchionne (.714 W%) with Gary Patterson in 2000 after Franchionne took the Alabama job. Patterson has led TCU to a .750 W% since then.
Boise State in 2000 replaced Dirk Koetter (.722 W%) with Dan Hawkins, who posted a .828 W% from 2001-2005. Boise found even greater success replacing Hawkins with Chris Petersen who produced a .885 W% from 2006-2013.
Miami in 2001 replaced Butch Davis (.718 W%) with Larry Coker, who went 60-15 from 2001-2006 for an .800 W%. Coker was fired in 2006 after posting consecutively worse seasons each year. Although Coker improved upon Butch Davis' winning percentage, I don't think anyone would consider Coker a success story.
And finally, LSU in 2005, who replaced Nick Saban and his .750 W% with Les Miles, who has posted an .775 W% since then.
Long story short, any rational observer can see that there should be significant concern over the ability to replace Miles with someone who will generate greater success.
Is there a coach out there that can improve upon what Miles has done? Sure, but the problem is that the vast majority of coaches, particularly the realistic candidates, are likely to underperform Miles.
Here is what history can tell us about how often the grass is greener on the other side:
Nebraska 2003: Fired Frank Solich (.766 W%) and hired Bill Callahan. AD said he would not "let Nebraska gravitate into mediocrity" with Solich. Callahan was fired after 4 seasons and a .551 W%.
Tennessee 2008: Forced Phillip Fulmer (.745 W%) to step down. The Volunteers have hired 3 coaches since then and sport a .482 W% since Fulmer was let go. Of note is the fact that Tennessee still sports a higher all-time winning percentage than LSU, but it did not insulate them from mediocrity.
Florida 2002: Steve Spurrier left after posting a .813 W% at Florida. It was a premier program in the country at the time. The Florida AD was turned down by Mike Shanahan and Bob Stoops. Ron Zook ultimately landed the job and proceeded to go 23-14 over three seasons at a school that took six years to lose 14 games before Zook got there.
Michigan 2007: Forced out Lloyd Carr (.753 W%) for his lackluster record against Ohio State (6-7). Hired hot-shot Rich Rodriguez and limped to a 15-22 record over the next 3 seasons. Followed up Rich Rod with Brady Hoke, who went 31-20 from 2011-2014 including 1-3 against Ohio State.
Alabama 1997: Even Alabama is not infallible. After Gene Stallings retired in 1996 with an .805 W%, it took Alabama 10 seasons, 4 coaches, a .553 W%, and a textbook scandal to get Nick Saban. That record includes their forfeited wins. Officially, Alabama had a losing record during that span and a .486 W%.
All top programs at the time, all failed miserably with their new coaches.
In fact, since 2000, I can only find 4 programs that have replaced coaches with .700+ W% and had even greater success with the newcomer. Furthermore, no program has ever forced out a coach with a winning percentage higher than .700 AND found a successor who generated better results.
TCU "replaced" Dennis Franchionne (.714 W%) with Gary Patterson in 2000 after Franchionne took the Alabama job. Patterson has led TCU to a .750 W% since then.
Boise State in 2000 replaced Dirk Koetter (.722 W%) with Dan Hawkins, who posted a .828 W% from 2001-2005. Boise found even greater success replacing Hawkins with Chris Petersen who produced a .885 W% from 2006-2013.
Miami in 2001 replaced Butch Davis (.718 W%) with Larry Coker, who went 60-15 from 2001-2006 for an .800 W%. Coker was fired in 2006 after posting consecutively worse seasons each year. Although Coker improved upon Butch Davis' winning percentage, I don't think anyone would consider Coker a success story.
And finally, LSU in 2005, who replaced Nick Saban and his .750 W% with Les Miles, who has posted an .775 W% since then.
Long story short, any rational observer can see that there should be significant concern over the ability to replace Miles with someone who will generate greater success.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:05 pm to slackster
So you stick with a declining or average program because of the fear of the unknown? Next coach could win, you know. A coach with strong fundamentals could do wonders with our players and recruits.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:07 pm to slackster
quote:
slackster
Great post. Spot on.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:08 pm to slackster
Please don't use facts in here. It confuses the fly off the handle emotional knuckle draggers.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:08 pm to slackster
There is no science to picking a coach. But it is faulty reasoning to believe that because teams are often unsuccessful at hiring a great coach, that it somehow follows that LSU can't. I mean, he's gone at some point right? Does that mean we suck eventually anyway? And LSU has made two great hires in a row, right? Why not a third? It's not science. You either get a great coach or you don't. You stack the odds in your favor by hiring a proven guy from a great conference who has already done it.And you hope it works out. That is as good as it will ever be.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:10 pm to DVA Tailgater
quote:
So you stick with a declining or average program because of the fear of the unknown?
I didn't say that at all, nor was that the point of my post.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:10 pm to slackster
> Lots of words about why head coaching changes don't work
> one line about a head coaching job change at LSU that did
oh.
> one line about a head coaching job change at LSU that did
oh.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:12 pm to DVA Tailgater
Just check the vast improvement Florida has made this season with McElwain compared to the ineptness of Muschamp his last two years.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:12 pm to slackster
This makes me want to rethink everything
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:13 pm to slackster
A coach named Gundy replaced Miles at Oklahoma State and has taken that team to heights they haven't been in a while. They weren't even really that good when Miles was there save for a couple of wins against Oklahoma. Gundy did better than miles at OSU. Who says someone can't do better here? Some of you are delusional for thinking this guy is some great coach. He's a great recruiter, mediocre coach.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:13 pm to Lsupimp
quote:
There is no science to picking a coach. But it is faulty reasoning to believe that because teams are often unsuccessful at hiring a great coach, that it somehow follows that LSU can't. I mean, he's gone at some point right?
You're right, I'm simply pointing out how difficult it has been to get the right guy in the past.
There is a high likelihood that LSU fans will long for the .775 winning percentage that Miles has accumulated. That doesn't necessarily mean he should stay, but it is something.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:17 pm to slackster
All you can do is try to make the best hire available, hope lightning strikes, and cross your fingers. That is they way it has always been, it will never be more than an educated roll of the dice. Even a Saban/Belichik joint venture at the school of your choice would have a great deal of risk and uncertainty.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:19 pm to Walnut
Hey all...Husker fan here.
Far be it from me to come into another fan's realm and start any crap. But, having been 3-0 so far on my predictions when it comes to former Nebraska coaches (See Shawn Watson, Bo Pelini, and Tim Beck), I felt compelled to come over and post on the supposed firing of one Lester Miles....
DON'T
DO
IT
I am not saying you should 'gravitate to mediocrity.'
I am not even saying that you shouldn't demand changes in the staff.
But firing this fella isn't the most prudent thing to do. I know it's hard. I know it's rough.
But let me give you an idea of what awaits you...
Bo Pelini is fired after winning 9 games every year he's here. We're sitting at 5-6 right now, with bowl contention on the line against yet another top 10 opponent.
Mike Riley is a nice guy and all...but losing games the way we have...and to lose to PURDUE....just...no.
I never was (and still am not) a fan of the Mike Riley Hire.
I was for grabbing Bo from you guys. Boy, was I stupid.
Just be careful what you are wishing for. If you're going to make changes - get rid of Cam Cameron.
Take it from someone who knows....
Far be it from me to come into another fan's realm and start any crap. But, having been 3-0 so far on my predictions when it comes to former Nebraska coaches (See Shawn Watson, Bo Pelini, and Tim Beck), I felt compelled to come over and post on the supposed firing of one Lester Miles....
DON'T
DO
IT
I am not saying you should 'gravitate to mediocrity.'
I am not even saying that you shouldn't demand changes in the staff.
But firing this fella isn't the most prudent thing to do. I know it's hard. I know it's rough.
But let me give you an idea of what awaits you...
Bo Pelini is fired after winning 9 games every year he's here. We're sitting at 5-6 right now, with bowl contention on the line against yet another top 10 opponent.
Mike Riley is a nice guy and all...but losing games the way we have...and to lose to PURDUE....just...no.
I never was (and still am not) a fan of the Mike Riley Hire.
I was for grabbing Bo from you guys. Boy, was I stupid.
Just be careful what you are wishing for. If you're going to make changes - get rid of Cam Cameron.
Take it from someone who knows....
This post was edited on 11/23/15 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:20 pm to GeauxLSUGeaux
quote:
A coach named Gundy replaced Miles at Oklahoma State and has taken that team to heights they haven't been in a while. They weren't even really that good when Miles was there save for a couple of wins against Oklahoma.
Miles was 28-21 in 4 seasons at OSU. He also took over a program that won more than 5 games in a season only once from 1989-2000.
Gundy took over from Miles and went 27-23 in his first 4 seasons.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:21 pm to slackster
you can either let the program slip away, or try and correct it.
also, you're looking at it wrong. The circumstances in replacing Miles SHOULD NOT be a factor. In the end, you are looking for a new coach; bottom line
The same way a team is if they are moving on from a coach with a bad winning percentage. With that being said, let's look at a few other P5 schools that have gotten it right recently.
Ohio St -Urban Meyer
Notre Dam- Brian Kelley
Florida State- Jimbo.
UCLA- Jim Mora Jr
OK St- Mike Gundy
UNC- Larry Fedora
Baylor- Art Briles
Clemson- Dabo
Stanford- David Shaw
Mich- Harbaugh
and shite, just look at the SEC west
It boils down to good hires and bad hires. Not winning percentages of previous coaches. That has no bearing on who you hire. You either make a good decision or you dont.
also, you're looking at it wrong. The circumstances in replacing Miles SHOULD NOT be a factor. In the end, you are looking for a new coach; bottom line
The same way a team is if they are moving on from a coach with a bad winning percentage. With that being said, let's look at a few other P5 schools that have gotten it right recently.
Ohio St -Urban Meyer
Notre Dam- Brian Kelley
Florida State- Jimbo.
UCLA- Jim Mora Jr
OK St- Mike Gundy
UNC- Larry Fedora
Baylor- Art Briles
Clemson- Dabo
Stanford- David Shaw
Mich- Harbaugh
and shite, just look at the SEC west
It boils down to good hires and bad hires. Not winning percentages of previous coaches. That has no bearing on who you hire. You either make a good decision or you dont.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:21 pm to slackster
Just curious...are you using the old coaches' overall win percentage at the school? What was their win percentage for, say, the final 4 years?
No one doubts that LSU had great years under Miles. But most of those were early in his tenure.
No one doubts that LSU had great years under Miles. But most of those were early in his tenure.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:21 pm to slackster
Yes, be careful what you wish for.....
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:23 pm to slackster
quote:
There is a high likelihood that LSU fans will long for the .775 winning percentage that Miles has accumulated.
LSU fans long for a day where our offense doesn't look like a discombobulated mess where our QB doesn't look lost. Les Miles has that record due to recruiting and his great defensive coordinators over the years. He, himself, has very little to do with that .775 percentage other than getting the players there.
Posted on 11/23/15 at 1:23 pm to slackster
I think LSU has some built-in advantages that put the odds a little more in our favor.Not some kind of insulation against failure of course, but a lot of things in our favor. Regardless of who they hire, he will always be my favorite LSU Coach along with Dale Brown. I totally love that man.
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