re: If AJ doesn't see the field this year, what's the chances he transfers?

Honestly I think everyone should change their tone. Regardless of what you think about the guy personally he still would be a great backup if he were to not get many snaps.

Guys on the team like him, and I think it is better that we as fans do not push him out, simply because he does not start Game 1.

But to answer the OP, he will guranteed see the field, even in a limited role I put it at 10% he transfers.

Even if Harris is great all year and injury free(two unknowns), I believe AJ would get some snaps in some blow out games. If this happens, he may want to play a year at a smaller school or perhaps hang around. I don't see him as an NFL player at any position and what new position would he even attempt...LB? I think his best chance of playing is at QB.