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Started By
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Europe QE to start off at 50 Billion / Month?
Posted on 1/21/15 at 9:31 am
Posted on 1/21/15 at 9:31 am
LINK
If this is correct tomorrow (Draghi is final word and he talks tomorrow) its going to be a good start to the year for Europe and US markets IMO.
If this is correct tomorrow (Draghi is final word and he talks tomorrow) its going to be a good start to the year for Europe and US markets IMO.
3
Posted on 1/21/15 at 9:47 am to LSU0358
Please correct me if I am wrong, but the ECB balance sheet has been shrinking. So how much a month?
IIRC, this 50 bil euros will be little more than maintaining the status quo. Better than nothing, but we'll see what happens tomorrow.
IIRC, this 50 bil euros will be little more than maintaining the status quo. Better than nothing, but we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Posted on 1/21/15 at 9:56 am to Blakely Bimbo
January 2014 shows 30,885 on balance sheet and Nov 2014 shows 31,439.
LINK
It's stayed roughly the same through most of 2014.
LINK
It's stayed roughly the same through most of 2014.
This post was edited on 1/21/15 at 9:59 am
Posted on 1/21/15 at 12:25 pm to LSU0358
Posted on 1/22/15 at 10:05 am to LSU0358
Breaking...Danish Central Bank just cut rates again.
Currency wars do not end well.
Currency wars do not end well.
Posted on 1/22/15 at 1:06 pm to Blakely Bimbo
Nope not at all...Im thinking a USD pullback soon. It will be a buy the dip type correction IMO. USD to 160 plus in next 2 to 4 years wouldnt surprise me.
Posted on 1/22/15 at 2:00 pm to LSU0358
So how does this work with ECB? Do they just spread the govt debt purchases across the member countries? (Will they skip Greece?)
Posted on 1/22/15 at 2:17 pm to Blakely Bimbo
Euro down to $1.13. Parity here it comes.....
Posted on 1/22/15 at 3:48 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
So how does this work with ECB? Do they just spread the govt debt purchases across the member countries? (Will they skip Greece?)
Well, see that is all about the fine print. According to the release, not until the summer can Greece be included. They have bonds coming due at that time.There are caveats also.
The duration for purchases announced does not fall in line with Greek Debt.
The deal announced for bond buying: 80% risk to member banks. Will be interesting to see how that plays out, non?
In the near term, I am looking at this move by the ECB at too sketchy. The ECB is not the Federal Reserve, so any results from this announcement just don't compute for me yet. IF Syriza is elected and IF Greece defaults on that 240+ billion Euros they owe the ECB, then at 60 billion Euros a month (for the near term) is going to be plugging holes.
Posted on 1/22/15 at 4:50 pm to 90proofprofessional
Posted on 1/23/15 at 12:55 am to LSU0358
Additional background information on the basics of central bank accounting here. I'm still confused, but flashes of recognition are starting to appear.
Also this explains the fiscal implications and why Germans don't have to worry about Greek debt. But that's why Germans are Germans - they worry about stuff. All the time.
Also this explains the fiscal implications and why Germans don't have to worry about Greek debt. But that's why Germans are Germans - they worry about stuff. All the time.
Posted on 1/23/15 at 7:04 am to LSU0358
I guess that if one believes that this ECB QE follows the road map of the US QE, then one would buy European stocks and high yield.
How about Euro funding of Emerging markets?
How about Euro funding of Emerging markets?
Posted on 1/23/15 at 8:43 am to Blakely Bimbo
quote:
European stocks
I really like Italian MIB here. I might buy some MIB futures and hedge out currency risks of the trade.
ETA: I haven't bought anything here yet...will wait until new highs above the summer 2014 levels.
This post was edited on 1/23/15 at 8:50 am
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:12 pm to LSU0358
I haven't seen the move to the upside I expected to after the ECB QE announcement. Could head down until March when the QE actually starts.
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