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re: Oil Wars: Why OPEC Will Win

Posted on 12/15/14 at 7:33 pm to
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9985 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 7:33 pm to
quote:

The US could play all day.


I think you're arguing just to argue, but your operating from a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation. The US is not playing and is not in a price war with SA. Rather US energy companies are in market competition with SA. No one has ever argued that SA is going to bring down the US economy and as you alluded to lower oil prices are traditionally good for our economy.

However the energy industry is going to see losses and it may cause a negative overall effect on our economy for a while if it entangles banks holding the bag on bad loans. Energy producing states are also going to be strained.

SA did not increase production and tank prices. They simply are refusing to cut production (and cede market share) in the face of an oversupplied market. They won't cut their production in order to prop up prices if non-OPEC members are just going to come in and pick up the slack in production and eventually drive prices down again.

SA is going to keep producing at the same rate (it's not like they are losing money) and let the market decide the price. People speculate that the price will eventually stabilize around $75-85/bbl, but that we could see $50 oil for an extended period before then. This will cause capital expenditures on exploration in the US to decrease and you will not see the same rate of growth of production.

In addition to new exploration, some current US production will become unprofitable. That will not happen in SA. Their production will always be profitable. The lowered prices will allow them to maintain or grow market share by simply continuing their output.

What do you think SA is doing that is wrong? What do you think that the domestic energy companies can do to stop SA?

For the price to go back up, demand will have to increase or supply reduced.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:13 pm to
quote:

I think you're arguing just to argue, but your operating from a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation. The US is not playing and is not in a price war with SA. Rather US energy companies are in market competition with SA. No one has ever argued that SA is going to bring down the US economy and as you alluded to lower oil prices are traditionally good for our economy.


I didnt allude to anything. This entire thread is about a hypothetical and a large assumption about a price war. Like go read the first post LOL.

The only reason I mentioned the US economy was when you and others said that the US couldn't win/play in a price war. They can and would do quite well.

quote:

What do you think SA is doing that is wrong? What do you think that the domestic energy companies can do to stop SA?


I never said they were doing anything wrong. Again, thread title LOL. Single US companies cannot do jack shite. The only thing that would matter is the export ban being lifted.

quote:

For the price to go back up, demand will have to increase or supply reduced.


Ground breaking!
This post was edited on 12/15/14 at 8:14 pm
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19846 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:18 pm to
So what sector are you in exactly?
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:34 pm to
quote:

OK, so basically, someone said Saudi would win a price war. I assumed it was about a price war vs the the US being as that was what this thread was started about.


If that is what you assumed....
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19846 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:52 pm to
He's just saying that bc he is backpedaling. He doesn't know what he's talking about or understand what we are trying to tell him. He went from saying that break even prices for shale was much cheaper than SA to talking about gdps.
Posted by JayDeerTay84
Texas
Member since May 2013
9847 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 8:58 pm to
Lol. I never said break evens for shale was cheaper than Saudi. In one of my very first post I referenced a Saudi lift cost around $7.

I did talk about Saudis real price with budget included.

GDP was about the price war.


Goodnight

Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 9:36 pm to
He gets boxed in and tries to move the goal posts to fit his bullshite. He tied himself in a knot.
Posted by SM6
Georgia
Member since Jul 2008
8818 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 11:54 pm to
Isn't'the this less OPEC and more the haves in OPEC like Saudi and the small gulf states who can afford to run in the red for a while and the have nots like Iran, Libya and Venezuela who are. 90% dependent on oil revenues and already are running deficits?

Certain OPEC nations have the appetite for lower prices while others would be screwed.
Posted by htownjeep
Republic of Texas
Member since Jun 2005
7635 posts
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:53 am to
quote:

So what sector are you in exactly?

Was this ever answered? This thing ended up all over the place and honestly, I can't get a grip on what he said

I'm interested in what his area of expertise is as well.
Posted by Stingray
Shreveport
Member since Sep 2007
12425 posts
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:13 am to
I think this was a semantics argument. If Jay was more clear in what he was trying to say, then people probably would have agreed with him more. Or he is a master at changing his argument on the fly.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:34 am to
quote:

Or he is a master at changing his argument on the fly.


I wouldn't say a master, but it's clearly what he tried to do.
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