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re: SB Nation's NBA divison realignment

Posted on 11/26/14 at 8:25 pm to
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30192 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 8:25 pm to
The argument last year was that it was unfair that a Phoenix with 48-34 sits at home because of how loaded the west was. But a <.500 team in the east get to go play. Remember, 49 wins for Dallas was 8th.

So Phoenix w/ that SOS went .585 (48-34) last year. In theory, harder SOS would have put them at a disadvantage, so based off percentages it'd be 46.89 wins.

46.89 wins would have still put them at 9th in the western conference. 46.89 wins would have put them at 5th in the East (4th was 48 wins for chicago) where they would have made the playoffs, even with a harder SOS.

Lets just look at the actual SOS and division and how it would look vs. the new SOS division

Phoenix went 8-8 (0.500) in their division last year:
Sacramento: 2-2
Golden State: 2-2
LA Lakers 3-1
LA Clippers 1-3

Suns vs. their new division
(5)Denver 4-0 (1.00) -> 5 wins
(5)OKC 2-1 (0.667) -> 3.34 wins
(4)Dallas 1-2 (0.334) -> 1.34 wins
(4)SAS 1-3 (0.250) -> 1 win
(4)Houston 1-2 (0.334) -> 1.34 wins

12.02-9.98 (0.546) win percentage in the new division
8-8 (0.500) win percentage in the old division
Or you can do it another way - old system they went:
6-1 vs. OKC/Denver = .857 x 10 = 8.571
3-7 vs. Dal/SA/HOU = .300 x 10 = 3.000
11.57-10.43 (.526) (that takes away the factor of wins/losses weighing too heavily based off reduction/addition of sample size)

So in division, they actually got better?

Assuming you rotate what division you play 2/3x a year, I'll just use the closest two regions for 3games/ea = 36 games total to make it easier.
Sacramento: 2-2 (.500) -> 1.5 wins
Portland: 3-1 (.750) -> 2.25 wins
Golden State: 2-2 (.500) -> 1.5 wins
LA Clippers: 1-3 (.250) -> 0.75 wins
LA Lakers: 3-1 (.750) -> 2.25 wins
Utah: 2-2 (.500) -> 1.5 wins
Miami: 0-2 (.000) -> 0 wins
Orlando: 2-0 (1.000) -> 3 wins
New Orleans: 4-0 (1.000) -> 3 wins
Charlotte: 2-0 (1.000) -> 3 wins
Atlanta: 2-0 (1.000) -> 3 wins
Memphis: 0-4 (0.000) -> 0 wins
Theoretical Total: 21.75-14.25 (.604)
Last year: 23-17 (.575)
other equation: 20.7-15.3

Now the last part: Far regions 2 games/ea = 24 games total
Minnesota: 2-1 (.667) -> 1.334 Wins
Milwaukee: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 Wins
Chicago: 0-2 (0.00) -> 0 wins
Indiana: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 wins
Detroit: 1-1 (0.500) -> 1 win
Cleveland: 1-1 (0.500) -> 1 win
Toronto: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 wins
Boston: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 wins
NYK: 1-1 (0.500) - 1 win
Brooklyn: 0-2 (0.00) -> 0 wins
Philly: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 wins
Washington: 1-1 (.500) -> 1 win
Theoretical Total: 15.334-8.666 (.639)
Last year: 16-8 (.667)
other equation: 16-8 (.667)

New SOS Record: 49.1-32.9 (.599)
Old SOS Record: 48-34 (.585)
Other Equation: 48.3-33.7 (.589)

So really, the SOS change actually benefited Phoenix, gave them 1 more win, and the new playoff seeding system gave them a playoff seat.

Please tell me where Phoenix would have been opposed to this?
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 8:34 pm
Posted by okietiger
Chelsea F.C. Fan
Member since Oct 2005
41008 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 9:39 pm to
Posted by Boomshockalocka
Member since Feb 2004
59715 posts
Posted on 11/27/14 at 12:09 am to
You did a lot of work for nothing. You can't multiply their percentage by the new opposing SOS. That dog don't hunt. That's lazy math.
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