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re: Predict the NBA Finals Matchup
Posted on 2/17/15 at 5:07 pm to KG5989
Posted on 2/17/15 at 5:07 pm to KG5989
quote:
Wade won't be healthy for the entire post season. And when he's played, they are 15-20 this year. They are 23rd in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating. And just looking at their wins and losses, they have only 7 wins against teams above .500. And are fighting for the 8th seed at the moment and could miss the playoffs.
So? For finding good value here based on the odds, missing the playoffs is no worse than losing in game 7 of the playoffs. The expected outcome is irrelevant at those odds. Its more about the 1/20 best case scenario.
The 5% chance best case scenario for the Heat is that Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are healthy and Hassan Whiteside turns out to be an all-star caliber center.
What's the best case scenario for the Bucks? What about Wizards or Toronto? Doesn't put them much better than they are now.
Its all about the variance of the possible outcomes in trying to find teams that are underpriced.
1
Posted on 2/17/15 at 5:19 pm to TheSexecutioner
This isn't about who makes the playoffs... It's about who makes the NBA Finals. And you said the fricking Pacers and Heat.
Has anyone said the Wizards or Raports or Bucks will make the Finals? You keep bringing up those teams like it helps your argument. It doesn't. Nobody thinks those teams will make the Finals. And best case scenario for Raptors and Wizards is conference finals... Which is better than the Heat.
The Heat are fighting for the 8th seed and the Pacers will most likely miss out on the playoffs. And I would say the odds of both teams missing the playoffs are better than 1 of them making the NBA Finals.
And why are you going through different scenarios to find teams underpriced? Again, this thread isn't about who makes the playoffs... It's about who gets to the NBA Finals. The Finals, not playoffs.
And out of all the better teams in the East, you picked the Pacers or Heat. So you think they get to the Finals over the Cavs, Bulls, and Hawks? Really?
Has anyone said the Wizards or Raports or Bucks will make the Finals? You keep bringing up those teams like it helps your argument. It doesn't. Nobody thinks those teams will make the Finals. And best case scenario for Raptors and Wizards is conference finals... Which is better than the Heat.
The Heat are fighting for the 8th seed and the Pacers will most likely miss out on the playoffs. And I would say the odds of both teams missing the playoffs are better than 1 of them making the NBA Finals.
And why are you going through different scenarios to find teams underpriced? Again, this thread isn't about who makes the playoffs... It's about who gets to the NBA Finals. The Finals, not playoffs.
And out of all the better teams in the East, you picked the Pacers or Heat. So you think they get to the Finals over the Cavs, Bulls, and Hawks? Really?
This post was edited on 2/17/15 at 5:21 pm
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