re: LSU should learn from Texas' mistakes

Actually, you left out Brown's title in 05. Redoing it...

Mack Brown's career at UT after his first title
2005: 13-0, conference title, national title
2006: 10-3, 2nd in division, Alamo Bowl victory
2007: 10-3, 2nd in division, Holiday Bowl victory
2008: 12-1, 2nd in division, Fiesta Bowl victory
2009: 13-1, conference title, national title appearance
2010: 5-7, 6th in division, no bowl
2011: 8-5, 6th in conference, Holiday Bowl victory
2012: 9-4, 3rd in conference, Alamo Bowl victory
2013: 8-5, 4th in conference, Alamo Bowl appearance

Les Miles's career at LSU after his first title
2007: 12-2, conference title, national title
2008: 8-5, 3rd in division, Peach Bowl victory
2009: 9-4, 2nd in division, Capital One Bowl appearance
2010: 11-2, 3rd in division, Cotton Bowl victory
2011: 13-1, conference title, national title appearance
2012: 10-3, 4th in conference, Peach Bowl appearance
2013: 10-3, 6th in conference, Outback Bowl victory
2014: 9-4 to 7-6, 5th to 8th in conference, bowl victory or defeat

Honestly these trajectories are pretty similar. It's true that the Big XII over this sample size isn't as tough as the SEC; but (i) the Big XII is still a tough conference over this sample size, and (ii) it doesn't really matter how good the Big XII is by comparison, because Miles plays in the SEC, not the Big XII. That's the benchmark for whether LSU is successful: "are we succeeding in the SEC?" not "could we hypothetically succeed in the Big XII?"

The overall picture is similar. After both programs won a title, they fell behind a strong divisional rival (Oklahoma/Alabama), who has since gone on to play in and win multiple BCS games and become the strongest program in the conference over the period in question. What looked briefly like a decline after the first title was averted with two strong standout years, with each program defeating aforesaid divisional rival en route to a national title appearance.

However, both programs lost their respective title games, and neither has been the same since.

Texas had an alarming dropoff where they missed a bowl game, followed by a few decent years that didn't really fix the core problems with the program exposed in that bad year. Combined with improvement by other programs in the conference, Brown was fired after an 8-5 campaign, not because 8-5 in a window is bad, but because 8-5 didn't show that the problems had been fixed, and because there was little reason to believe they would be.

LSU didn't have the alarming dropoff after the title game that Texas did; instead it's been a slow decline. 13-1 went to 10-3; 10-3, after holding serve for a year, may fall all the way to 7-6 this year (or merely fade back a step to 9-4). Our position in the conference has declined each year and, save for the most optimistic possible tiebreaking scenarios (namely Ole Miss and Auburn both losing out, with us somehow leapfrogging them in the resulting 3-way tie after beating A&M), this trend will continue this year. And, just like Texas, systematic personnel and schematic issues plaguing the program since the last national championship haven't been resolved - and don't look terribly likely to BE resolved, either.

I'm not saying "fire miles!!" from this. Not this year for sure. But the Mack Brown comparison honestly looks to be right on target. I think 2014 should be do-or-die for the Miles administration: if the team doesn't noticeably improve both in record and systematic problems, LSU has to start over, because the SEC and especially the West is only continuing to improve, and even mere stagnation is decline by comparison. We cannot afford to let 8-5 or 9-4, with the promise of next year bringing in an abundance of recruiting talent and fixing woeful development issues, become the norm at LSU. Allowing this to happen another year without repercussions sets this as the norm.