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re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 11/6/14 at 9:38 am to LSURussian
Posted on 11/6/14 at 9:38 am to LSURussian
quote:
I would be very surprised if the average Russian citizen knows why the sanctions were put in place because of Putin's control over the Russian media.
I'm sure Beresovsky and Gushinsky have some interesting stories to tell. Or, they would if they still could
Posted on 11/6/14 at 9:41 am to LSURussian
Obama did something right for once
Posted on 11/6/14 at 9:42 am to Starrkevious Ringo
LSU Russian I really enjoy your info in this thread. Fascinating stuff.
Posted on 11/6/14 at 9:42 am to LSURussian
quote:
I would be very surprised if the average Russian citizen knows why the sanctions were put in place because of Putin's control over the Russian media.
They would just blame the west regardless.
Posted on 11/6/14 at 9:43 am to LSURussian
If you sit by the river long enough...
Posted on 11/6/14 at 9:49 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:...maybe you'll jump in it???
If you sit by the river long enough...
Posted on 11/6/14 at 9:50 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
If you sit by the river long enough...
You'd probably drown.
Posted on 11/6/14 at 11:10 am to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
Obama did something right for once
Yes, but, direct US military action against Russian armed forces was never an option.
Arming the Ukrainian Armed Forces was, but, no matter how much we did that, Russia could crush them.
In my view, sanctions were the best option, along with reinforcing our military commitment to NATO.
I have never thought that Putin's best options were to invade Crimea, Eastern Ukraine or anywhere else. I never understood why he chose this path.
I don't know, but, to me it seems that Russia's best interests would be served by being a partnered with the West, not at odds with the West.
This post was edited on 11/6/14 at 11:12 am
Posted on 11/6/14 at 11:36 am to LSURussian
Russian, what is your opinion of the reports in European press about Vlad having cancer?
Is it three letter agency information/ disinformation campaign?
I hope your prediction is correct. May be the only event that gets the European Central bank off its keester and do a real qe.
Is it three letter agency information/ disinformation campaign?
I hope your prediction is correct. May be the only event that gets the European Central bank off its keester and do a real qe.
Posted on 11/6/14 at 11:49 am to Blakely Bimbo
quote:I have no insight into that situation. Like you, all I know is what I read on the news.
Russian, what is your opinion of the reports in European press about Vlad having cancer?
My guess is it's not true and probably just wishful thinking of some of his opponents, either foreign or domestic, part.
It's also not totally out of the question that Putin himself has put out those rumors in an attempt for him to identify which of his "loyal" people start hedging their bets to move to other possible successors. Russians do that kind of double-cross, intrigue stuff in order to assess the real loyalty of their followers.
Posted on 11/7/14 at 11:24 pm to LSURussian
The Russian ruble has lost a little over 10% of its value versus to the US dollar over the last two trading days.
Posted on 11/10/14 at 12:45 pm to LSURussian
It's happened! The Central Bank of Russia announced today it will stop supporting the ruble and let it freely float.
As the link below says, the ruble has lost half of its value in 2014 in spite of the Central Bank of Russia spending $110 BILLION of its reserves to prop up the Russian currency this year, $30 billion last month alone.
It appears the CBR made its announcement after the currency exchange markets closed on Monday in Moscow meaning the full effect on the ruble won't be known until the markets open on Tuesday in Russia.
The following quote supports my prediction that Russia will default on its debt soon:
There won't be enough rubles owned by borrowers to buy the euros and dollars needed to pay off debts.
As the link below says, the ruble has lost half of its value in 2014 in spite of the Central Bank of Russia spending $110 BILLION of its reserves to prop up the Russian currency this year, $30 billion last month alone.
It appears the CBR made its announcement after the currency exchange markets closed on Monday in Moscow meaning the full effect on the ruble won't be known until the markets open on Tuesday in Russia.
The following quote supports my prediction that Russia will default on its debt soon:
quote:LINK
The ruble is expected to come under more pressure next year, when Russian companies and banks will have to pay back about $100 billon in hard currency debts, he added.
There won't be enough rubles owned by borrowers to buy the euros and dollars needed to pay off debts.
Posted on 11/10/14 at 12:53 pm to LSURussian
quote:I'll bet that some sort of deal to pay off in commodities will be brokered. I can just imagine the fees that the middlemen will command.
There won't be enough rubles owned by borrowers to buy the euros and dollars needed to pay off debts.
Posted on 11/10/14 at 1:12 pm to Poodlebrain
LSURussian, what would you say the long term effects of this will be?
Posted on 11/10/14 at 1:15 pm to LSURussian
The shitty part is that a collapsing ruble will disproportionately hurt the working class in Russia. Oligarchs (especially those that own extraction businesses) will be just peachy with this because they do most of their sales in foreign currency and probably have their assets sheltered abroad too. All this means is their costs just got a whole lot lower.
This post was edited on 11/10/14 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 11/10/14 at 1:34 pm to Iosh
quote:
he shitty part is that a collapsing ruble will disproportionately hurt the working class in Russia.
so then it's like the devaluation of the dollar from the feds overprinting of it, which hurts the American working class? hmmm, ya don't say.
yea Putin looks like he is maintaining control on the neighbor states ability to obtain resources like natural gas from other sources, he is acting to help maintain the oligarchy. Interesting how much Russian and US govt's act the same, control business for their own interests, but I'm sure it's just a great big coinky dink!
Posted on 11/10/14 at 1:40 pm to bamarep
quote:A bunch of really pissed off Russians who will be convinced it's all the fault of foreigners.
LSURussian, what would you say the long term effects of this will be?
Posted on 11/10/14 at 1:45 pm to Poodlebrain
quote:If the borrowers have commodities that can be sold for euros or dollars, why would they have to barter with those commodities?
I'll bet that some sort of deal to pay off in commodities will be brokered.
They would just sell the commodities for the hard currency they need and then pay of their loan with the proceeds.
If they don't have commodities that can be sold for a hard currency, then bartering won't help them.
Posted on 11/10/14 at 1:48 pm to LSURussian
Anybody know where I can locate John Meriwether? Heard he can get me a great deal on Russian Debt that makes it a completely safe investment....
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