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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:23 am to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:23 am to tgrbaitn08
OK what are the odds of this actually hitting the gulf? I hear there's a chance but every model I see show it going up the coast
1
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:24 am to Navajo61490
quote:
There is an 80 percent chance that it will move out to sea without affecting the southeast coast of the United States. It is possible that the disturbance could come close enough to Florida or North Carolina next Tuesday or Wednesday to produce impacts onshore. We think that there is only about a 5 percent chance of this system entering the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico. The eventual track is largely dependent on whether the trough picks it up and carries it out to sea. Of the four primary global models, only the Canadian takes this system into the Gulf of Mexico. The American, European and U.S. Navy models take it northward and out to sea well east of the Florida Peninsula.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 10:25 am
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:30 am to GEAUXmedic
I'm going on vacation to Turks and Caicos in mid-october.
What are my chances of getting hurricane fricked? Historically not bad odds for mid-October as its the tail end of the season down there.
But how are the water temps and trends looking for me for this year?
What are my chances of getting hurricane fricked? Historically not bad odds for mid-October as its the tail end of the season down there.
But how are the water temps and trends looking for me for this year?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:58 am to tgrbaitn08
Appreciate it 
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:19 pm to Navajo61490
Models shifting west again
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:26 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:28 pm to Jim Rockford
Speculation on the web says it might split into two storms, ala Humberto. IANAM, just repeating what I've read.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:30 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Jim Rockford
You post at gcwx?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:35 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
You post at gcwx?
I just lurk. There and Storm2K.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:35 pm to Jim Rockford
Okay, who's the one motherfricker that thought it would be funny to put their model on a bee line to New Orleans?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:40 pm to prostyleoffensetime
that's literally happened for every GOM related model since katrina.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:42 pm to NIH
Jeff Masters is hoping this thing blows up so bad. Tough to push the GW super hurricane agenda when every season since 05 has been below average.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:45 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Jeff Masters is hoping this thing blows up so bad. Tough to push the GW super hurricane agenda when every season since 05 has been below average.
The Eastpac is way above average this year.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:54 pm to prostyleoffensetime
quote:
Okay, who's the one motherfricker that thought it would be funny to put their model on a bee line to New Orleans?
That would be the CMC, aka. Crazy Uncle CMC.. it has that name for a reason.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 3:57 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
The Eastpac is way above average this year.
Oh yea, well that makes sense
Posted on 8/22/14 at 4:05 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
That would be the CMC, aka. Crazy Uncle CMC.. it has that name for a reason.
Actually it was XTRP, which I think is a straight line extrapolation of its current path. Hardly a "model" of any sort. Currently it's pointing at S. Tejas but this morning it was aimed at NOLA. Crazy Uncle has it making landfall south of Tallahassee.
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 4:09 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 4:11 pm to Jim Rockford
What's the word on this western shift?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 4:12 pm to Navajo61490
quote:
What's the word on this western shift?
Taking a guess here but it seems like that since this thing is so disorganized, the models have failed to converge to a solution and are basically oscillating back and forth.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 4:14 pm to Navajo61490
When should we begin to trust some of the models? Sunday?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 4:16 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
When should we begin to trust some of the models? Sunday?
When they all produce the same results.
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