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re: General NBA Links
Posted on 3/27/14 at 2:42 pm to corndeaux
Posted on 3/27/14 at 2:42 pm to corndeaux
quote:
Small Market teams are less competitive
This isn't true imo
Portland/Indiana/OKC/Memphis/SA have been very competitive since the new CBA with team such as ORL/NOP/UTA/CHA/DET among others are getting on the right track.
Smaller markets are getting smarter now and that's the main reason for their uprising and the downspiral of LAL/NYK/BOS
quote:
Superstars are more likely to leave
Durant/Westbrook have/will stay and people like LBJ/Howard(with LAL) left because of the shitty GMing.
quote:
Mediocre teams won't get anything for stars
That's why if you're sure the player doesn't want to stay,you trade him the year before or do a sign and trade in the offseason.
It's another case of GMs having to be smarter.
1
Posted on 3/27/14 at 9:24 pm to LosLobos111
quote:
Portland/Indiana/OKC/Memphis/SA have been very competitive since the new CBA
Well OKC, Memphis, and SA were all competitive before the new CBA.
PDX, Indiana, OKC, and SA all are good in large part because they hit big in the draft. Not because they attracted huge FAs to town. So small markets need to draft well to compete. That's not really leveling the playing field unless every team must now draft well to compete. Maybe it proves to be so, but I'm not so sure that is the case right now.
Even Memphis fully developed Conley and Gasol and made a shrewd bet to get Randolph at a nadir in his career.
Indiana, Memphis, and OKC each made straight salary dump moves to avoid even a small repeater tax. That isn't happening in a big market with teams like these. That is a problem.
quote:
ORL/NOP/UTA/CHA/DET among others are getting on the right track.
That's generous. Detroit is abysmal, really only hoping Drummond becomes Dwight Howard (or Tom Izzo saves them
). Charlotte has been a pleasant surprise after losing about 120 games the last 2 seasons. They still likely finish under .500 in a weak, weak East. Utah is just a stage ahead of Orlando (and Philadelphia) in the bottom out and rebuild with young guys while hoping to imitate the draft success of OKC, SAS, IND, or PDX plan.
The Pels hit the jackpot and didn't want to waste time in the desert years going from bad to competitive. Jury is still out on whether it will work. Luckily Davis is so good, they can screw it up around him and likely still be competitive.
So most of these teams are banking on draft picks panning out. Seems like a theme.
quote:
Smaller markets are getting smarter now
The whole league is getting smarter.
quote:
downspiral of LAL/NYK/BOS
Age and injuries led to problems in LAL and BOS. Jury is out on Buss the Younger, but Ainge is sharp. NYK has a Dolan problem. If he ever gets out of his own way, they will be fine. It's been about 15 years, so I'm not holding my breath even with PJax there now.
quote:
Durant/Westbrook have/will stay
No one turns down a 5 year max for a rookie extension.
And you have no idea that they will stay. It's possible. It's also possible they see OKC has never gone above the tax to help win a title. I can almost guarantee they both hit FA because the new CBA gives them little incentive not to do so.
quote:
LeBron/Howard(with LAL) left because of the shitty GMing.
The moves didn't work out the way Ferry/Kupchack planned. They weren't Khan or Isiah type moves. shite happens.
Was the Harden deal really a good return for OKC? Is Presti shitty now? The Gordon contract sucks. Is Demps shitty? How is the JaVale McGee contract working out for Denver? Masai Ujiri is shitty now?
quote:
That's why if you're sure the player doesn't want to stay,you trade him the year before or do a sign and trade in the offseason
Both of those avenues have had alterations in the CBA that make it harder to draw the same value as before.
Posted on 3/27/14 at 9:38 pm to corndeaux
In some ways, I think the small market teams will benefit under the new CBA (although I don't claim to be as well versed as some of you), but I think it will take time to tell.
The thing is, precisely, that he is so good. I mean far beyond even glowing predictions when he came out. If Dell had it to do over again, I'm not so sure he'd have given EG his deal (although at the time, I still maintain that Demps had to draw a line in the sand to establish the credibility of the new regime . . . don't frick with us, etc). But back to the point, with AD, it may be that you don't need a second "superstar", but a solid PG and some very good role players with diverse skills. I mean who the frick knows?
quote:
The Pels hit the jackpot and didn't want to waste time in the desert years going from bad to competitive. Jury is still out on whether it will work. Luckily Davis is so good, they can screw it up around him and likely still be competitive.
The thing is, precisely, that he is so good. I mean far beyond even glowing predictions when he came out. If Dell had it to do over again, I'm not so sure he'd have given EG his deal (although at the time, I still maintain that Demps had to draw a line in the sand to establish the credibility of the new regime . . . don't frick with us, etc). But back to the point, with AD, it may be that you don't need a second "superstar", but a solid PG and some very good role players with diverse skills. I mean who the frick knows?
Posted on 3/27/14 at 10:28 pm to corndeaux
quote:
Well OKC, Memphis, and SA were all competitive before the new CBA.
PDX, Indiana, OKC, and SA all are good in large part because they hit big in the draft. Not because they attracted huge FAs to town. So small markets need to draft well to compete. That's not really leveling the playing field unless every team must now draft well to compete. Maybe it proves to be so, but I'm not so sure that is the case right now.
Even Memphis fully developed Conley and Gasol and made a shrewd bet to get Randolph at a nadir in his career.
Indiana, Memphis, and OKC each made straight salary dump moves to avoid even a small repeater tax. That isn't happening in a big market with teams like these. That is a problem.
CHI is afraid(for some reason) of paying the tax which is why they ditched deng.
Memphis/Indy got rid of guys they didn't really need(gay sure in the hell ain't worth what he is getting paid imo)
MEM got allen(a pretty sizable cog)/Indy got Dwest /SA is always doing some sort of shrewd FA move.
I agree on OKC
quote:
That's generous. Detroit is abysmal, really only hoping Drummond becomes Dwight Howard (or Tom Izzo saves them ). Charlotte has been a pleasant surprise after losing about 120 games the last 2 seasons. They still likely finish under .500 in a weak, weak East.
Drummond's definite on his way to becoming a top flight C(
what could've been) and I like monroe and suprisingly jennings(who's played better than expected imo) the only odd piece is smith. quote:
Charlotte has been a pleasant surprise after losing about 120 games the last 2 seasons. They still likely finish under .500 in a weak, weak East.
Yeah but they're definitely not the lost cause they used to be. Kemba/Henderson/MKG/Zeller/Jefferson is a solid core and they play very good D.
quote:
Utah is just a stage ahead of Orlando (and Philadelphia) in the bottom out and rebuild with young guys while hoping to imitate the draft success of OKC, SAS, IND, or PDX plan.
As soon as some of that salary they have expires,they should have enough space(and a top 5ish pick) to go along with a solid core of Burke/Hayward/Burks/Favors/Kanter to attract a few FAs.
quote:
The whole league is getting smarter.
Thank God
quote:
No one turns down a 5 year max for a rookie extension.
And you have no idea that they will stay. It's possible. It's also possible they see OKC has never gone above the tax to help win a title. I can almost guarantee they both hit FA because the new CBA gives them little incentive not to do so.
Well they're winning and both don't seem the type to just bolt.
They also can get more money there than in the other cities.
quote:
The moves didn't work out the way Ferry/Kupchack planned. They weren't Khan or Isiah type moves. shite happens.
trading 2 first rounders for nash definitely is.
Ferry had a long time to construct a shitty roster but failed miserably.
quote:
Was the Harden deal really a good return for OKC? Is Presti shitty now? The Gordon contract sucks. Is Demps shitty? How is the JaVale McGee contract working out for Denver? Masai Ujiri is shitty now?
From what i heard they would've kept harden if he played defense. Though they still should've amnestied perkins and resigned harden with the money(to me at least) regardless
quote:
The Gordon contract sucks. Is Demps shitty?
It does now but at the time it would've looked bad to just let your so called prize return bolt.
quote:
How is the JaVale McGee contract working out for Denver? Masai Ujiri is shitty now?
I just don't think he was used right
If he got the right minutes(he was before his injury this year) and stayed healthy he has enough potential to come close to that 10 mil price tag
A 7 fter with such an elite skill set isn't easy to find.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 7:11 am to LosLobos111
First, I love this type of discussion. You're making very good points and many, many that I don't really disagree with. So thanks for engaging in a good way.
Chicago is a big market that acts like a small market. LA dumped salary this year too. I think that's more of a "we're not going any where, so why pay extra money."
I wasn't talking about Gay, but the Ellington/Speights straight salary dump they made before Gay. That got them under the cap and sent away their only reliable 3 pt shooter.
Those are support pieces- 4th, 5th or lower type guys. You certainly have to make smart decisions, but those moves don't mean much if theses teams hadn't nailed their cores largely through the draft.
Yeah. I was probably too harsh. A GM with any sense might be able to do something. But I don't know if they reup Monroe to the max he wants this summer. That's a big piece they might lose.
And I agree on Charlotte. Their defensive turnaround gives me hope that the Pels can do the same next season. They have been a top 10 defense all season. Astounding.
They will likely take about $10M+ of that to resign Hayward and the Favors extension ($12M/YR) kicks in too. They still have plenty of room though. It's all about that core developing for them. There is promise, but the Favors/Kanter pairing has not been good, albeit in limited time.
That's true, but really the kicker is a guaranteed 5th year. If that doesn't mean as much to them, it's basically a wash in terms of money.
Say OKC hasn't won a title by the time Durant hits FA. Durant is hearing the same nonsense James heard before he won a title.
LAL hits on their draft pick (Wiggins, Exum, Parker, whomever it's LA, they likely will hit) and gets Love. They sell Durant on winning in the premier NBA franchise. They guarantee they will do whatever it takes to win a title. He can make up the $ as a star in LA. They've got one bona fide star and a budding one. That's a tempting offer for a guy thinking more about his legacy as an all time great than a few extra million.
I don't know about that. The Lakers were expecting to be in title contention. Two firsts were likely in the 20s. Most people laughed at PHX for giving Nash away for nothing at the time. It was a gamble on Nash's health, Howard staying, and Kobe staying healthy. The lost on all 3. The moves weren't indefensible though.
Ferry built a team that was winning 60+ games every year. He made some bad bets with Hughes, Jamison, and Shaq. He probably should have pulled the trigger for Amare when he had the chance (if the rumors are true). I think Mike Brown killed them more than anything else.
That's interesting. It sounds like it has some truth, but also a lot of spin. I think they picked Ibaka over Harden because of defense/variety and he was a lot cheaper. I don't think they ever entertained keeping both at the prices each guy deserved. Regardless, the return was mediocre for a first team All NBA guy.
Re: Gordon and McGee- that's sort of the point. The moves were defensible and even made a good deal of sense at the time. But they just haven't turned out well at all. Be it injuries, poor use (even Karl was flabbergasted by McGee), whatever. I don't think you kill a gm for just missing in hindsight. Not every move works out.
quote:
CHI is afraid(for some reason) of paying the tax which is why they ditched deng.
Chicago is a big market that acts like a small market. LA dumped salary this year too. I think that's more of a "we're not going any where, so why pay extra money."
quote:
Memphis/Indy got rid of guys they didn't really need(gay sure in the hell ain't worth what he is getting paid imo
I wasn't talking about Gay, but the Ellington/Speights straight salary dump they made before Gay. That got them under the cap and sent away their only reliable 3 pt shooter.
quote:
MEM got allen(a pretty sizable cog)/Indy got Dwest /SA is always doing some sort of shrewd FA move.
Those are support pieces- 4th, 5th or lower type guys. You certainly have to make smart decisions, but those moves don't mean much if theses teams hadn't nailed their cores largely through the draft.
quote:
I like monroe and suprisingly jennings(who's played better than expected imo) the only odd piece is smith.
Yeah. I was probably too harsh. A GM with any sense might be able to do something. But I don't know if they reup Monroe to the max he wants this summer. That's a big piece they might lose.
And I agree on Charlotte. Their defensive turnaround gives me hope that the Pels can do the same next season. They have been a top 10 defense all season. Astounding.
quote:
As soon as some of that salary they have expires,they should have enough space(and a top 5ish pick) to go along with a solid core of Burke/Hayward/Burks/Favors/Kanter to attract a few FAs.
They will likely take about $10M+ of that to resign Hayward and the Favors extension ($12M/YR) kicks in too. They still have plenty of room though. It's all about that core developing for them. There is promise, but the Favors/Kanter pairing has not been good, albeit in limited time.
quote:
They also can get more money there than in the other cities
That's true, but really the kicker is a guaranteed 5th year. If that doesn't mean as much to them, it's basically a wash in terms of money.
Say OKC hasn't won a title by the time Durant hits FA. Durant is hearing the same nonsense James heard before he won a title.
LAL hits on their draft pick (Wiggins, Exum, Parker, whomever it's LA, they likely will hit) and gets Love. They sell Durant on winning in the premier NBA franchise. They guarantee they will do whatever it takes to win a title. He can make up the $ as a star in LA. They've got one bona fide star and a budding one. That's a tempting offer for a guy thinking more about his legacy as an all time great than a few extra million.
quote:
trading 2 first rounders for nash definitely is.
Ferry had a long time to construct a shitty roster but failed miserably
I don't know about that. The Lakers were expecting to be in title contention. Two firsts were likely in the 20s. Most people laughed at PHX for giving Nash away for nothing at the time. It was a gamble on Nash's health, Howard staying, and Kobe staying healthy. The lost on all 3. The moves weren't indefensible though.
Ferry built a team that was winning 60+ games every year. He made some bad bets with Hughes, Jamison, and Shaq. He probably should have pulled the trigger for Amare when he had the chance (if the rumors are true). I think Mike Brown killed them more than anything else.
quote:
From what i heard they would've kept harden if he played defense
That's interesting. It sounds like it has some truth, but also a lot of spin. I think they picked Ibaka over Harden because of defense/variety and he was a lot cheaper. I don't think they ever entertained keeping both at the prices each guy deserved. Regardless, the return was mediocre for a first team All NBA guy.
Re: Gordon and McGee- that's sort of the point. The moves were defensible and even made a good deal of sense at the time. But they just haven't turned out well at all. Be it injuries, poor use (even Karl was flabbergasted by McGee), whatever. I don't think you kill a gm for just missing in hindsight. Not every move works out.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 7:20 am to VOR
quote:
not so sure he'd have given EG his deal (although at the time, I still maintain that Demps had to draw a line in the sand to establish the credibility of the new regime . . . don't frick with us, etc). But back to the point, with AD, it may be that you don't need a second "superstar", but a solid PG and some very good role players with diverse skills. I mean who the frick knows?
Yep. It's a fine move in context. I just think they Gordon deal felt a little fishy- did they know everything about his knee, did they really want to keep him? They certainly didn't want to give him a max. I get why they did it, but I don't think they really wanted to. Really, just frick Lon Babby and the PHX front office.
As for Davis, look at the roster for some of those early Duncan Spurs teams. Unreal they were contending for titles with some of those guys playing big minutes.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 7:38 am to corndeaux
quote:
Really, just frick Lon Babby and the PHX front office.
yep.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 11:10 am to corndeaux
quote:
First, I love this type of discussion. You're making very good points and many, many that I don't really disagree with. So thanks for engaging in a good way.
I do too
the NBA junkie in me can't resist quote:
Chicago is a big market that acts like a small market. LA dumped salary this year too. I think that's more of a "we're not going any where, so why pay extra money."
A team with such a history like CHI shouldn't really be afraid of paying a few extra mil(i'm sure they can foot it). It's just interesting how they're doing it and I can respect it in a way.
quote:
I wasn't talking about Gay, but the Ellington/Speights straight salary dump they made before Gay. That got them under the cap and sent away their only reliable 3 pt shooter.
Yeah but they did get Ed Davis(a guy I would've loved on the pels as a bruiser with upside) to replace speights.
quote:
Those are support pieces- 4th, 5th or lower type guys. You certainly have to make smart decisions, but those moves don't mean much if theses teams hadn't nailed their cores largely through the draft.
But they really didn't tank for those guys either.
George/Hibbert were mid round picks(damn if we could've gotten george
) that payed off. Marc was kind of an afterthought(at the time) compared to pau and was a great return for him.
We all know about ZBo
At least it's not like a years back where they were giving charlie Vs and Ben Gordons huge contracts for mediocrity.
That's not seen as much these days.
quote:
They will likely take about $10M+ of that to resign Hayward and the Favors extension ($12M/YR) kicks in too. They still have plenty of room though. It's all about that core developing for them. There is promise, but the Favors/Kanter pairing has not been good, albeit in limited time.
They're definitely looking better lately(favors/kanter) I believe youth/inexperience has something to do with that(kanter has also dealt with benchings and whatnot)
quote:
I don't know about that. The Lakers were expecting to be in title contention. Two firsts were likely in the 20s. Most people laughed at PHX for giving Nash away for nothing at the time. It was a gamble on Nash's health, Howard staying, and Kobe staying healthy. The lost on all 3. The moves weren't indefensible though.
Ferry built a team that was winning 60+ games every year. He made some bad bets with Hughes, Jamison, and Shaq. He probably should have pulled the trigger for Amare when he had the chance (if the rumors are true). I think Mike Brown killed them more than anything else.
I felt it was a good move on PHXs part because giving away an almost 40 year-old PG(i know how great he is) for picks is a no brainer ecspecially since they got dragic later.
LAL would've been better off with sessions/lowry or another young PG
You can win the reg season all you want but those teams weren't built for the playoffs(in regards to CLE)
quote:
That's interesting. It sounds like it has some truth, but also a lot of spin. I think they picked Ibaka over Harden because of defense/variety and he was a lot cheaper. I don't think they ever entertained keeping both at the prices each guy deserved. Regardless, the return was mediocre for a first team All NBA guy.
Re: Gordon and McGee- that's sort of the point. The moves were defensible and even made a good deal of sense at the time. But they just haven't turned out well at all. Be it injuries, poor use (even Karl was flabbergasted by McGee), whatever. I don't think you kill a gm for just missing in hindsight. Not every move works out.
We're pretty much in agreement here
The move was praised in regards to OKC(who knew harden would blow up like that?)and it's one of those things.
Hopefully dell gets a vet SF/SG(that can play 3+D) in exchange for EG and we'll go along our merry way.
This post was edited on 3/28/14 at 11:18 am
Posted on 3/29/14 at 10:27 am to LosLobos111
quote:
NBA junkie in me can't resist
Me too
quote:
It's just interesting how they're doing it and I can respect it in a way
Yeah. Reinsdorf is sort of a cheap bastard. At least he's consistent.
quote:
Yeah but they did get Ed Davis(a guy I would've loved on the pels as a bruiser with upside) to replace speights.
Agree completely on Davis- much better than Speights too. I am really hoping Memphis can't find a way to keep him. They don't really play him much, maybe the Pels can snake him away.
quote:
But they really didn't tank for those guys either.
Indiana didn't tank. Really remarkable what they've done after the malice in the palace destroyed a title contender and killed their fan base. Hitting on 10, 18, and a 2nd is Spursian level drafting ability.
But Memphis had 3 top 5 picks (Conley, Love for Mayo
, Thabeet ) in a row followed by 12 (Henry). The year before Conley they made a draft day trade for Rudy Gay (8th overall pick). So picks 8, 4, 5, 2, 12 in a 5 year run is a bounty. They were bad for a long time and missed on most of their picks. They did nail Gasol and ZBo though. And Conley took some time, but is a good NBA pg.
If anything, just proof how ridiculously strange and hard it is to build a competitive NBA team. Both teams showed a lot of patience in letting guys develop and mature into good players. We would be wise to remember that as the Pels make moves.
quote:
They're definitely looking better lately(favors/kanter) I believe youth/inexperience has something to do with that(kanter has also dealt with benchings and whatnot)
They need a new coach to get any sort of read on what they have. Even then, I'm not convinced that group has enough juice to be a consistent playoff team.
quote:
You can win the reg season all you want but those teams weren't built for the playoffs(in regards to CLE)
I don't know. They led the league in Net Rating in 08-09 and were 2nd in 09-10. They were a title contender. Unfortunately, Boston and Orlando were also title contenders- 2nd and 3rd in net rating in 08-09 and 1st and 8th in 09-10. Match ups v two very good teams killed them in the playoffs.
I do think a better coach would have given them a real chance to break through though. Brown just had no ideas on offense with LeBron freaking James.
I could see something similar happening to Indiana. Vogel is a great coach but their poor offense could ruin them in a series v Chicago or BK. They don't really have great talent on offense and are anchored by their insistence on playing two true bigs almost all the time. They can score on Miami though. Just excited for the playoffs to start.
Posted on 3/29/14 at 5:09 pm to corndeaux
A quibble:
Drafting. Too often drafting is discussed like it is a game show. Pick an envelope that claims to have X money inside. It may have X, or it may have more, or it may have less. If it is right, no one blinks. If it is more, the selector is praised. If it is less, the selector gets some heat, but boy boy boy is that envelope a liar.
Ignoring that fact that draft busts are more about the gm and staff than the player, this system of discourse completely eliminates the develooment factor and the smart free agency pickups. Thr latter should include West and Hibbert. Yes, Hibbert.
Using the envelope framework, being able to invest that money wisely and combine it with other assets. . . mergers and acquisitions. . . is something Indiana does not get enough credit for.
Drafting. Too often drafting is discussed like it is a game show. Pick an envelope that claims to have X money inside. It may have X, or it may have more, or it may have less. If it is right, no one blinks. If it is more, the selector is praised. If it is less, the selector gets some heat, but boy boy boy is that envelope a liar.
Ignoring that fact that draft busts are more about the gm and staff than the player, this system of discourse completely eliminates the develooment factor and the smart free agency pickups. Thr latter should include West and Hibbert. Yes, Hibbert.
Using the envelope framework, being able to invest that money wisely and combine it with other assets. . . mergers and acquisitions. . . is something Indiana does not get enough credit for.
Posted on 3/29/14 at 6:44 pm to 42
Absolutely.
Clearly there are reasons some teams hit on players more frequently than others. Andrew Sharp had a nice article about this about a year ago on Grantland I believe. Goldsberry had a great read on Monta Ellis, Dirk, and the Mavs with some great Cuban quotes on this very subject
Player acquisition isn't math, it's alchemy. Sometimes it just doesn't work out with the best scouts, data, analysis, system, coaching, and ownership in place. That same excellent Indiana organization drafted and developed Tyler Hansbrough in between getting Hibbert and George. They picked up Gerald Green last year and got nothing from him. DJ Augustin arguably cost them a trip to the Finals; he's now perhaps the 2nd best player on the Bulls. Whither rumored Pels off season target Chris Copeland? On the other hand, they were smart enough to flip 16 for George Hill, who's been a great fit at pg. And were bold enough to take a chance on an over 30 player coming off ACL reconstruction.
Like I said earlier, not every move works. shite happens and even the best organizations aren't perfect. It takes smart planning, thinking, support, patience, AND a good bit of luck for success.
And I'm not so sure Hibbert is a FA. Matching a rookie max offer to your 25 yo All-Star center isn't a head scratcher to me- it's certainly as defensible as matching Gordon's max offer sheet. I would imagine they had access to data that proved his worth as the defensive anchor in their scheme even if his traditional numbers didn't scream max guy.
Clearly there are reasons some teams hit on players more frequently than others. Andrew Sharp had a nice article about this about a year ago on Grantland I believe. Goldsberry had a great read on Monta Ellis, Dirk, and the Mavs with some great Cuban quotes on this very subject
quote:
“It’s not like Moneyball in baseball, where analytics are a good way to determine who to sign or who not to sign, unless where they were is analogous to where you’re trying to bring them. [A basketball player] might have X number of win shares on a team that likes to push the ball, and a team that slows it down is a different beast. A guy might be a great rebounder if a team keeps him close to the basket, but if we show on pick-and-rolls or play zone, those numbers are going to be very different.”
Player acquisition isn't math, it's alchemy. Sometimes it just doesn't work out with the best scouts, data, analysis, system, coaching, and ownership in place. That same excellent Indiana organization drafted and developed Tyler Hansbrough in between getting Hibbert and George. They picked up Gerald Green last year and got nothing from him. DJ Augustin arguably cost them a trip to the Finals; he's now perhaps the 2nd best player on the Bulls. Whither rumored Pels off season target Chris Copeland? On the other hand, they were smart enough to flip 16 for George Hill, who's been a great fit at pg. And were bold enough to take a chance on an over 30 player coming off ACL reconstruction.
Like I said earlier, not every move works. shite happens and even the best organizations aren't perfect. It takes smart planning, thinking, support, patience, AND a good bit of luck for success.
And I'm not so sure Hibbert is a FA. Matching a rookie max offer to your 25 yo All-Star center isn't a head scratcher to me- it's certainly as defensible as matching Gordon's max offer sheet. I would imagine they had access to data that proved his worth as the defensive anchor in their scheme even if his traditional numbers didn't scream max guy.
Posted on 3/30/14 at 3:05 pm to corndeaux
I'm going to read, but Mark Cuban is skeptical of advanced analytics and "moneyball" in the NBA. Just saying, fwiw.
Posted on 3/30/14 at 6:16 pm to VOR
Not too sure about that. Cuban has used Wayne Winston for many years to crunch numbers for him.
Now he isn't only numbers- but no one with any decision making ability in the NBA is only numbers.
LINK
Now he isn't only numbers- but no one with any decision making ability in the NBA is only numbers.
LINK
quote:
"Basketball guys who participated in the game through years of rigorous training and practice, decades of observation work through film and field participation work feel under-utilized and under-appreciated and are quite insulted because their PhDs in basketball have been downgraded," the former executive, who chose to remain anonymous, told ESPN NBA Insider Chris Broussard.
Whoa. You know, for PhDs in basketball to be downgraded, they need to have first actually existed. So let me help with that.
Posted on 3/30/14 at 7:11 pm to corndeaux
I think the thing about analytics is exactly what SVG said. You need basketball people who can put the patterns that form in context, otherwise you pay attention to meaningless stats like miles ran. This really is true of any data mining, with enough data lots of patterns will develop, not all of which are meaningful.
Posted on 3/31/14 at 8:31 am to TigerinATL
Absolutely.
That Ziller piece talks about how GMs now do both. Less Elgin Baylors, more Danny Ainges. The baseball comparison is particularly apt IMO.
Lowe had a series of tweets yesterday referencing the article and this idea that people who are comfortable with numbers only look at STATS.
That Ziller piece talks about how GMs now do both. Less Elgin Baylors, more Danny Ainges. The baseball comparison is particularly apt IMO.
Lowe had a series of tweets yesterday referencing the article and this idea that people who are comfortable with numbers only look at STATS.
quote:
Zach Lowe ?@ZachLowe_NBA 20h
They depress me b/c: 1) No analytics person I know ignores context like that. 2. If there are even 1 or 2 left who do, that's poor hiring.
quote:
Zach Lowe ?@ZachLowe_NBA 20h
People in the league need to stop talking about analytics as an alternative to watching games/film. It's dumb. Sets the discussion back.
quote:
Zach Lowe ?@ZachLowe_NBA 20h
Start talking about the interesting questions — questions that arise based on WATCHING GAMES — that analytics might help you answer.
quote:
Literally, I have met zero analtyics people who wouldn't consider system, fit, roster, film in their analysis of a player. Zippo.
quote:
I have heard of 1-2 such "analytics-only" types that are semi-evangelical. They are out of the league now. Others will be, too. Fast.
quote:
Some might weigh analytics/film more/less than others in player discussion. That's called healthy dialogue, provided everyone knows the game
Posted on 4/2/14 at 8:21 am to corndeaux
The great Jon Bois with a new sports video game series, NBA Y2K. If you saw any of his Breaking Madden, this is more of the same.
Video at the end, perhaps NSFW depending on where you work.
More stuff on cutting all the Sixers players, replacing them with 5'3" create a players, and scouting a 7'6" 49 yo old prospect named Horrid Shithead.
LINK
Video at the end, perhaps NSFW depending on where you work.
quote:
If the Sixers really are intentionally tanking, they apparently need to lose even more than 100 percent of their games, because they still aren't in last place. It's kind of staggering: even after dropping an NBA-record 26 straight, they're still two games ahead of the 14-60 Milwaukee Bucks.
Clearly, 26 is not enough. I want an 0-82 season. And through the simulation abilities of NBA 2K14 for the Xbox 360, that's what we're going to try to accomplish.
More stuff on cutting all the Sixers players, replacing them with 5'3" create a players, and scouting a 7'6" 49 yo old prospect named Horrid Shithead.
LINK
Posted on 4/2/14 at 5:03 pm to corndeaux
shite yall. No bites on Jon Bois? WTF is up with this place? 
Posted on 4/3/14 at 8:31 am to corndeaux
quote:
David West, too, is bad at screening. He has to stay set longer to nail Jarrett Jack here; because he doesn't, he gives Cleveland's defense a chance to easily close out on him:
That was actually a pretty good screen for David West. He normally can't wait to pop out for his shot.
The Ellis offensive strategy does seem very applicable for Tyreke. For the tl;dr crowd there are lots of pictures and animated gifs with arrows, you don't have to actually read much to get the gist of it, which is using Ellis (or Tyreke) exclusively in Pick and Rolls which start past the 3 point line so he can be running full speed when he hits the defense in the paint.
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