re: General NBA Links

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Respect the C-Deaux, man.

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I read nearly everything he posts, but that one just didn't pass muster.

What is going on here?

Bois/EDSBS et al just crack me up. I'm a sucker for absurdity

Do coaches really matter? LINK / This is Pelicans related and from BSS, but it's a little mathy and tl;dr, so this thread seemed like a good fit.

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"Our most surprising finding was that most of the coaches in our data set did not have a statistically significant impact on player performance relative to a generic coach. Even the most successful coaches by our metric—Jackson, Popovich, and Fitzsimmons— were statistically discernable only from the very worst-rated coaches. We therefore find little evidence that most coaches in the NBA are more than the “principal clerks” that Adam Smith claimed managers were more than 200 years ago (pg. 92)."

...Anyway, Berri and co. ran these regressions, and they got a bunch of numbers for each coach. These numbers told us of the relative impact of each coach in their data set. The two coaches with the biggest impact were Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich, which seems entirely reasonable. In fact, the model estimated that Pop and Jackson would add over 15 wins to their teams per season, all else being equal.

The problem came when the researchers looked at the coaches’ confidence intervals. For those of you who don’t know, a confidence interval is a way of saying that an estimate falls somewhere in a certain range. I’ll explain through a metaphor. Let’s say you and I are at a bar, and I ask you to estimate the height of a guy standing across the room’s. You may say, “I think he is 6 feet tall”. That is your estimate. Then I say, “Okay, tell me the range of heights you’re 95 percent sure he falls between.” The clever thing to do would be to say, “He is somewhere between 4 feet and 8 feet tall. “ Of course, I’d push you to give me the smallest range you’re 95% confident he falls between. You may respond, “He is taller than 5 feet 8 inches, but shorter than 6 feet 4 inches.” That is a confidence interval. That is the range of heights you’re 95% sure that guy’s height falls between. In the case of this paper, the first round of statistics estimated just a single number (they guessed the guy’s height), but when they looked at the confidence interval of the effect of each coach, the low end of the best coaches overlapped with the top end of the worst coaches. To return to my bar example, this would be like I asked you to rank 20 guys in a bar by height, but when I asked you to provide a range of their heights, the tallest guys minimum height was lower than the shortest guys tallest height.

...We can’t do the same for coaches. We can’t start the Pelicans season over, and have George Karl be the head coach to see if the outcome changes. In fact, it wouldn’t even tell us much, because luck or chance play such a large role in season outcomes. Furthermore, we can’t even say that we know a coach made a bad decision, because we can’t provide the counter factual. We can’t replay the game and make a different choice with lineups or strategy to see what happens.

Now, I know some of you have become frustrated. You probably think I’m telling you that you can’t critique a coach. I’m not saying that at all. You can question coach’s decisions, but you can’t know they made the wrong choice. This is probably particularly relevant for our team. The tone surrounding Monty Williams’ performance has grown particularly knowing, in my opinion. We could all benefit from remembering that we can’t know how well things would have gone if Monty played the strategies we wished he would have.

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I'll check out the link. The way S.A. acquires solid, role playing talent is amazing to me. And it also demonstrates that AD could truly be the "cornerstone" (yuk) of a very successful franchise without the Miami or L.A. star power model.

Another Spurs write up, this one on their evolution as an offense and just how great Pop is.

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Anyone that hopes to have a long coaching career in the NBA makes adjustments,

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Great team building is not just about bringing in players that fit the system. It's also about adjusting the system to fit the players. The Spurs seem to know that, and Pop has been flexible when it comes to incorporating new plays or new roles into what the Spurs do. If a player does something unplanned that works, or if he shows he can consistently be successful while trying something that was not supposed to be a part of his skill set, the Spurs incorporate it into the offense.

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CC to Monty pls, thx

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"I think competitive character people don't want to be manipulated constantly to do what one individual wants them to do. It's a great feeling when players get together and do things as a group. Whatever can be done to empower those people...", Pop told Jeff McDonald of the Express-News. And despite a carefully cultivated public image of a stern disciplinarian and perfectionist, he practices what he preaches in that statement. "It’s a players’ game and they’ve got to perform. The better you can get that across, the more they take over and the more smoothly it runs. Then you interject here or there. You call a play during the game at some point or make a substitution, that kind of thing that helps the team win. But they basically have to take charge or you never get to the top of the mountain."

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Fascinating in light of the coaching link ATL posted- Pop seems to agree with Berri. Of course it's easier to trust Duncan, Parker, and Manu than most players.

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What makes Pop great is his focus on long term, sustained success. That's not accomplished in a year. The way the Spurs have played this season is the result of a process that started long ago. It's a process that's still going.

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This is something to remember when thinking about the Pels. 42 has mentioned it many times.

I'm not particularly confident that Demps and Monty are the guys to lay that framework, but things need perspective for proper assessment. I don't want a quick fix and a repeat of the Paul Hornets- marble facade covering Chinese drywall infrastructure.

LINK

I remember a feature on Pops a few months ago when he said there were times during a timeout when he told the guys "You're on the floor. You figure it out. ".

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I'll be collecting the thoughts more cleanly, but I think the team, as of now, is Jrue and Anthony. The end. Everyone else is fodder.

Thoughts?

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I think the injury locks Anderson in, as well. For now.

You can't trade Anderson this summer. At the deadline sure, but you sell low if you sell before he proves he's back to normal.

I do think one of the more plausible Gordon trades could make Anderson a little more expendable. Bargnani isn't as good as Anderson, but he's a starting caliber stretch big that you should be able to sign cheaper.

If I were the GM, I would have traded Ryan this offseason for my first choice, a rim protecting 5, or secondly, a long 3 who can play defense first, and knock down threes.

His injury changes the whole plan.