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Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 5/15/14 at 11:03 am to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 5/15/14 at 11:03 am to Iowa Golfer
UNG up less than 3%m July Ung $23 puts down almost 30%. Back up the truck.
Posted on 5/16/14 at 6:21 am to Iowa Golfer
What a day yesterday. I didn't make it in to the office until after lunch. I guess I predicted crazy volatility.
What is interesting to me are the analysts. Some were indicating bearish signals until yesterday. I don't know if based on fundamentals or technicals. One completely revered yesterday and came out and said bullish natty gas market remains unchanged, and predicts natty gas above $4.50 for the rest of the year.
And the futures market, after the initial burst yesterday, starts its slow trend back down. The range to me appears to be $4.30 - $4.50 right now.
I'm guessing not a whole lot of anything until next Thursday, but who knows when some expert comes out and indicates an injection of 97, when the projection was 97. is a miss.
What is interesting to me are the analysts. Some were indicating bearish signals until yesterday. I don't know if based on fundamentals or technicals. One completely revered yesterday and came out and said bullish natty gas market remains unchanged, and predicts natty gas above $4.50 for the rest of the year.
And the futures market, after the initial burst yesterday, starts its slow trend back down. The range to me appears to be $4.30 - $4.50 right now.
I'm guessing not a whole lot of anything until next Thursday, but who knows when some expert comes out and indicates an injection of 97, when the projection was 97. is a miss.
Posted on 5/16/14 at 9:43 am to Iowa Golfer
Did you get your July $23 ung puts filled?
i was looking at it yesterday and today in my account and it had like 17000 open interest for the $23 and 16000 open interest on $22.
Also says I can't trade it in my acct and to call a help #, that's the first time I have seen that.
i was looking at it yesterday and today in my account and it had like 17000 open interest for the $23 and 16000 open interest on $22.
Also says I can't trade it in my acct and to call a help #, that's the first time I have seen that.
This post was edited on 5/16/14 at 9:44 am
Posted on 5/19/14 at 6:25 am to eng08
Overnight saw futures tick more about .035 - .05. If this is the open, today should be an opportunity to load up on whatever short positions one has, or at least average your short cost downward.
It's very difficult for me to ever predict day trading levels from overnight trades in the futures markets as overnight is filled with a greater percentage of retail speculators.
If it holds, this type of movement in the futures results in a move of over 1% - 2% in the etf's, and even greater volatility in the options. Having said that, more recently the options pricing on buying days has what seems a new higher resistance notwithstanding the decay in underlying assets price.
Mr. Eng08. Yes I purchased more puts on Friday. There is enough open interest and liquidity to make it an interesting trade. It is going to be work for me to sell once that starts. I don't think with 17K oi in July $23P I can sell aon, or I'd drive the market down.
It's very difficult for me to ever predict day trading levels from overnight trades in the futures markets as overnight is filled with a greater percentage of retail speculators.
If it holds, this type of movement in the futures results in a move of over 1% - 2% in the etf's, and even greater volatility in the options. Having said that, more recently the options pricing on buying days has what seems a new higher resistance notwithstanding the decay in underlying assets price.
Mr. Eng08. Yes I purchased more puts on Friday. There is enough open interest and liquidity to make it an interesting trade. It is going to be work for me to sell once that starts. I don't think with 17K oi in July $23P I can sell aon, or I'd drive the market down.
Posted on 5/19/14 at 7:15 am to Iowa Golfer
Everything up a nickel, cash up a dime. It will be interesting to see where the puts fall to.
Posted on 5/19/14 at 8:08 am to Iowa Golfer
Here we go. Up between .074 -.081.
Posted on 5/19/14 at 10:19 am to Iowa Golfer
If it is possible, I am now even shorter than short could be short on its shortest day.
This post was edited on 5/19/14 at 10:20 am
Posted on 5/19/14 at 12:01 pm to Iowa Golfer
The recurring quote I keep reading from the analysts that are quoted weekly in GD is that "It's just not good enough!". I know we're still two months out, but reality needs to set in, fast
Posted on 5/19/14 at 1:19 pm to Iowa Golfer
Gas Daily... platt's publication
Posted on 5/19/14 at 1:52 pm to sneakytiger
So short, it is shorter than short could ever be short, and it hurts to be this short.
In conclusion, I am short. Even shorter.
In conclusion, I am short. Even shorter.
Posted on 5/19/14 at 3:07 pm to Iowa Golfer
The puts did not test anywhere near their previous lows. I actually finished ok on my July 20/23 puts. I did buy a lot more at near the days low.
I see this as good news for anyone on UNG puts.
Futures settled to about .05-.06 higher for the months we are interested in, down from their previous day highs of almost a dime higher.
The last several times natty gas has gone up, it settles, and the short positions seem to find resistance a bit higher.
Everything is proceeding as planned. Keep the faith, I think we see $20 UNG by July.
I see this as good news for anyone on UNG puts.
Futures settled to about .05-.06 higher for the months we are interested in, down from their previous day highs of almost a dime higher.
The last several times natty gas has gone up, it settles, and the short positions seem to find resistance a bit higher.
Everything is proceeding as planned. Keep the faith, I think we see $20 UNG by July.
Posted on 5/19/14 at 5:35 pm to Iowa Golfer
Things are settling down to the range I talked about on Friday in the future's market.
I'll be on the road Thursday. Can someone update me on the report and pricing of cash, futures and UNG please?
You don't need to be as anal as me, but just the big picture after the report would be fine. I'd appreciate it.
I'll be on the road Thursday. Can someone update me on the report and pricing of cash, futures and UNG please?
You don't need to be as anal as me, but just the big picture after the report would be fine. I'd appreciate it.
Posted on 5/19/14 at 8:19 pm to Iowa Golfer
I usually have an eye on DGAZ at 9:30 on Thursday mornings. Should be a good indicator of how the report went.
Posted on 5/20/14 at 6:07 am to TheBigHurt
Thank you sir.
Futures ticked down a smidge overnight. While I do believe the fine gentleman about BOIL being predictable, I don't follow BOIL. What I am now starting to understand is that in my case UNG is predictable.
Thursday I will be going to the Lake Geneva area. Some say it is like the Haptons of the Midwest. I don't know about all that. While there are some extremely wealthy families that have summer homes there, I suspect the Midwest is more like Louisiana than like the east coast.
Futures ticked down a smidge overnight. While I do believe the fine gentleman about BOIL being predictable, I don't follow BOIL. What I am now starting to understand is that in my case UNG is predictable.
Thursday I will be going to the Lake Geneva area. Some say it is like the Haptons of the Midwest. I don't know about all that. While there are some extremely wealthy families that have summer homes there, I suspect the Midwest is more like Louisiana than like the east coast.
Posted on 5/20/14 at 2:51 pm to Iowa Golfer
Futures prices and cash price are close. Not sure when they post today's cash price at Henry Hub. In any event, this should (should) stop the violent upward path of UNG and other etf's based on their July contracts.
LINK
It's been strange. I'm really at a loss at how the market will react to Thursday's report.
LINK
It's been strange. I'm really at a loss at how the market will react to Thursday's report.
Posted on 5/21/14 at 4:41 pm to Iowa Golfer
Clarification. Previously I mentioned UNG puts meeting resistance when natural gas futures and UNG share price went up. What I meant was support, not resistance. So today again futures and the underlying etf went down, but not as much as they previously went up, and the short UNG puts actually settled higher than at the same or higher futures and share price. Good news for many of us.
Cash is at $4.645
June is at $4.489
July is at $4.49
Aug is at $4.475
Tomorrow will be interesting. Light trading before the holidays on the east coast, not so much in Chicago. It's only a 40 minute drive from Chicago to lake Geneva. It takes the east coast liberal trash longer to get to the Hamptons. Predicated on the report, the June contract could match cash price, or even exceed it, or Friday's cash price could be significantly less.
Again the projections are so wide from smallest to largest, it shouldn't take much to at least meet the projected injection. I've also read 120 projections though.
Rumor from Chicago - I've heard last week's reclassification might again get reclassified this week, making this week's injection seem abnormally high. If he is wrong, I'll make him buy me dinner in Lake Geneva. I don't know, and I doubt he does either. He did call my coffee trade correctly though, so I'll give him that.
Cash is at $4.645
June is at $4.489
July is at $4.49
Aug is at $4.475
Tomorrow will be interesting. Light trading before the holidays on the east coast, not so much in Chicago. It's only a 40 minute drive from Chicago to lake Geneva. It takes the east coast liberal trash longer to get to the Hamptons. Predicated on the report, the June contract could match cash price, or even exceed it, or Friday's cash price could be significantly less.
Again the projections are so wide from smallest to largest, it shouldn't take much to at least meet the projected injection. I've also read 120 projections though.
Rumor from Chicago - I've heard last week's reclassification might again get reclassified this week, making this week's injection seem abnormally high. If he is wrong, I'll make him buy me dinner in Lake Geneva. I don't know, and I doubt he does either. He did call my coffee trade correctly though, so I'll give him that.
Posted on 5/21/14 at 5:02 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I've heard last week's reclassification might again get reclassified this week, making this week's injection seem abnormally high.
Could you clarify this please. Didn't the reclassification last week cause the projection to seem lower, hence the UNG jump? Is your source predicting the opposite effect this week?
Posted on 5/21/14 at 5:09 pm to Iowa Golfer
Are reclasses from working to base that common? I'm used to seeing them go from base to working, as operators optimize their facilities, but working to base seems like it'd be rare.
I think this is the facility responsible for last week's reclass:
LINK
I think this is the facility responsible for last week's reclass:
LINK
This post was edited on 5/21/14 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 5/21/14 at 5:12 pm to sneakytiger
What I heard is that last week's reclassification, will get reclassified. To wit, reclassify the previous reclassification to the previous classification.
Who knows? They're all friggin crazy, I'm just trying to make a couple of bucks.
Who knows? They're all friggin crazy, I'm just trying to make a couple of bucks.
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