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re: So Les Miles goes for a 57 yd field goal...
Posted on 12/2/13 at 12:44 pm to lindsfav
Posted on 12/2/13 at 12:44 pm to lindsfav
That was absolutely the correct call.
It's a huge game, it's obvious the other team can score on you, You're on the road so you do everything you can to avoid overtime, especially on the road.
It's obvious his kicker has the leg and accuracy to make it.
The odds of a block are pretty low. Even if they do block it the odds the other team will recover are low. And even if they do recover the odds of them running it all the way back are even lower.
You have a decent shot of making it and ending the game. The odds of it landing in the endzone are low, The odds of them catching it in the endzone are low, and the odds of them running out and getting anywhere are as low as it gets. Overall the odds of them returning it with no time on the clock are like a million to one. How do I know? Tell me how many times it's been done in NCAA history?
The only bone headed move would to be not and try that kick.
Now let's discuss Les calling a Fake on 4th and 12.
It's a huge game, it's obvious the other team can score on you, You're on the road so you do everything you can to avoid overtime, especially on the road.
It's obvious his kicker has the leg and accuracy to make it.
The odds of a block are pretty low. Even if they do block it the odds the other team will recover are low. And even if they do recover the odds of them running it all the way back are even lower.
You have a decent shot of making it and ending the game. The odds of it landing in the endzone are low, The odds of them catching it in the endzone are low, and the odds of them running out and getting anywhere are as low as it gets. Overall the odds of them returning it with no time on the clock are like a million to one. How do I know? Tell me how many times it's been done in NCAA history?
The only bone headed move would to be not and try that kick.
Now let's discuss Les calling a Fake on 4th and 12.
4
Posted on 12/2/13 at 12:52 pm to Pennymoney
quote:
You have a decent shot of making it and ending the game. The odds of it landing in the endzone are low, The odds of them catching it in the endzone are low, and the odds of them running out and getting anywhere are as low as it gets. Overall the odds of them returning it with no time on the clock are like a million to one. How do I know? Tell me how many times it's been done in NCAA history?
OBJ returned one earlier this year, didn't he?
This post was edited on 12/2/13 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 12/2/13 at 12:58 pm to Pennymoney
quote:
You have a decent shot of making it and ending the game.
No you don't. Not with a kicker that's only attempted 2 FGs before that in his career and has only made a 20 yarder.
Everything leading up to that kick was boneheaded as well. Bypassing the opportunity to go up by 2 scores with a FG, bonheaded. Running 2 draws before the FG attempt, when you have a heisman candidate for a QB, boneheaded. Attempting a 57 yarder instead of heaving it to the endzone, bonheaded. Saban's indecisiveness about what to do in the final minute was absolutely bonheaded.
How many college games are won on walk off 57 yarders?
Posted on 12/2/13 at 1:36 pm to Pennymoney
quote:
That was absolutely the correct call.
The kid's longest FG was like 20 yards and he had tried two all fricking season.
Do a search for 57 yard FGs made this season in college football.
Saban has been a great college coach, but his decisions in this game are very hard to defend and those who try are only showing their retard traits.
Posted on 12/2/13 at 2:14 pm to Pennymoney
quote:
The odds of a block are pretty low. Even if they do block it the odds the other team will recover are low. And even if they do recover the odds of them running it all the way back are even lower.
Okay, what are these odds and what do you think are acceptably "low risk" odds which costitute the difference between LOSING a game with one second left or going into overtime?
You just keep saying, low risk, low risk, low risk. I just see two big downsides to the choice to kick (a block returned, or a return the way it happened), and I'm not sure for such a long low trajectory kick, it's necessarily a "no brainer" "low risk" choice.
The point comparing Miles and Saban is silly, and I'm not getting into or addressing that. I'm simply looking at this standing alone, and don't think your argument is convincing, unless you acan actually articulate the odds.
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