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3rd Quarter Malaise: Reality or Myth?
Posted on 11/19/13 at 9:57 am
Posted on 11/19/13 at 9:57 am
I was curious about the constant meme of "Hornets/Pelicans always get outplayed in the 3rd." I have felt this way at times, but was not entirely convinced, and wanted to see if the numbers bore it out.
All numbers are from NBA.com and are the margin in points per game for the 3rd quarter
2013-2014: -1.9 (2nd worst quarter)
2012-2013: -.4 (the best quarter)
2011-2012: -1.7 (the worst quarter)
2010-2011: .6 (2nd best quarter)
This season's numbers are still a bit all over the place. The Pelicans have been bad, but the Thunder have been nearly 1 point worse. I don't know how much we can trust those numbers at this point in the season. I'm happy to come back after each month and see what's going on. That aside, I'm not sure we can say that there is a consistent, yearly, massive 3rd quarter deficiency.
A couple observations:
1) Bad teams are outscored more often. Water is also wet. But it bears repeating that the 2011-2013 Hornets were bad teams. They won 48 of 147 games for a .326 winning percentage. The only positive 3rd quarter year saw the Hornets win 46 games for a .561 winning percentage. I'm not sure we should have expected much more from the 11-13 teams given the talent, youth, and health of those rosters. Obviously there is better talent this year and we all expect improvement from the woeful -1.9.
2) Countless coaches and athletes have echoed some variation of the sentiment that the bad is remembered more vividly than the good. We fans can also be guilty of this. We remember the collapses and the terrible plays because we want our team to win so badly. And sometimes we forget that it was only one game out of 82. Last season's flawed team, despite some terrible performances we all remember, had it's best scoring margin in the 3rd quarter.
That's not to say that criticism is not warranted or needed. It is. Or that the coaching doesn't stale and the players don't lose focus. It does and they do. Just sometimes it helps to step back and survey the scene from a different perspective.
All numbers are from NBA.com and are the margin in points per game for the 3rd quarter
2013-2014: -1.9 (2nd worst quarter)
2012-2013: -.4 (the best quarter)
2011-2012: -1.7 (the worst quarter)
2010-2011: .6 (2nd best quarter)
This season's numbers are still a bit all over the place. The Pelicans have been bad, but the Thunder have been nearly 1 point worse. I don't know how much we can trust those numbers at this point in the season. I'm happy to come back after each month and see what's going on. That aside, I'm not sure we can say that there is a consistent, yearly, massive 3rd quarter deficiency.
A couple observations:
1) Bad teams are outscored more often. Water is also wet. But it bears repeating that the 2011-2013 Hornets were bad teams. They won 48 of 147 games for a .326 winning percentage. The only positive 3rd quarter year saw the Hornets win 46 games for a .561 winning percentage. I'm not sure we should have expected much more from the 11-13 teams given the talent, youth, and health of those rosters. Obviously there is better talent this year and we all expect improvement from the woeful -1.9.
2) Countless coaches and athletes have echoed some variation of the sentiment that the bad is remembered more vividly than the good. We fans can also be guilty of this. We remember the collapses and the terrible plays because we want our team to win so badly. And sometimes we forget that it was only one game out of 82. Last season's flawed team, despite some terrible performances we all remember, had it's best scoring margin in the 3rd quarter.
That's not to say that criticism is not warranted or needed. It is. Or that the coaching doesn't stale and the players don't lose focus. It does and they do. Just sometimes it helps to step back and survey the scene from a different perspective.
4
Posted on 11/19/13 at 9:58 am to corndeaux
It's not always the worst but it seems like we have a lead at halftime it's usually the worst - which is why it stands out. Your "research" doesn't account for that. 
Posted on 11/19/13 at 11:15 am to corndeaux
quote:
Filter your search by games in which we led at halftime and then lost. I guaran-damn-tee you that it was the 3rd quarter that was our undoing far more often than the 4th quarter.
This shite right here
10-15 point leads at halftime disappearing by the start of the 4th
This post was edited on 11/19/13 at 11:16 am
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:20 pm to corndeaux
Instead of a new thread i'll just post this here:
I looked through some of the best teams in the league(not all, didn't have the time) and the only team with a starting unit, or unit that played the majority of the team's minutes, outscoring opponents by as much as the Pelicans were the Pacers. We're at 15.2, I believe the Pacers were at 15.3.
If Evans and Anderson can click on that 2nd unit...
quote:
The hope is that Anderson provides the needed offensive punch for the second unit and keeps New Orleans afloat after their starters go out. Even with Holiday's offensive issues, the starting five of Holiday, Gordon, the underrated Al-Farouq Aminu, Davis and Smith have outscored teams by over 15 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com's stats page. If Anderson's presence also gives New Orleans a new Evans that'll begin to terrorize second units, this'll be a tough team to deal with later in the year. Still, the rough play of Holiday and Evans is a concern, and frontcourt depth is a question given Stiemsma's injury. LINK
I looked through some of the best teams in the league(not all, didn't have the time) and the only team with a starting unit, or unit that played the majority of the team's minutes, outscoring opponents by as much as the Pelicans were the Pacers. We're at 15.2, I believe the Pacers were at 15.3.
If Evans and Anderson can click on that 2nd unit...
Posted on 11/19/13 at 6:29 pm to corndeaux
Haven't read through the entire thread, but I actually looked into this last season. The numbers suggested something interesting - the Hornets struggled mainly in the 3rd at home and typically in the 4th on the road. I found one of my tweets about it here, but can't find my more detailed research about it at the moment.
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