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Started By
Message
re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale oil well sets record (for TMS) - 1540
Posted on 3/25/14 at 2:10 pm to GREENHEAD22
Posted on 3/25/14 at 2:10 pm to GREENHEAD22
Ill have to look for the links I found this info on. The example I gave was on one of the first Devon wells done about 2 years ago.
Posted on 3/25/14 at 2:13 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
If I recall correctly though they had major problems with their wells and did a piss poor job over all. I can't see those decline rates being anywhere near the standard.
Posted on 3/25/14 at 2:20 pm to GREENHEAD22
I think Goodrich has toyed with the idea of going back and reworking some of those wells
Interesting article on a blog about Halcon's view of the TMS. Floyd Wilson with PetroHawk is credited with helping discovering the Eagle Ford thinks TMS is the next big thing
Kirk Barrel's blog
Interesting article on a blog about Halcon's view of the TMS. Floyd Wilson with PetroHawk is credited with helping discovering the Eagle Ford thinks TMS is the next big thing
Kirk Barrel's blog
Posted on 3/25/14 at 4:20 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Floyd Wilson
We could start a thread just on Floyd. First and foremost, you have to understand that Floyd is the ultimate hype man. He's not shy about his intentions to flip HK.
Posted on 3/25/14 at 4:24 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Total Prod bbls Time (Days)
BOE 1H 50,861 (856)
Joe Jackson 4-13H 39,001 (2120)
Horseshoe Hill 10H 101,042 (666)
Anderson 17 H #1 135,217 (583)
Anderson 18H #1 158,934 (574)
Ash 31H #1 13,238 (285)
Ash 31H #2 57,678 (281)
Joe Jackson 4H-2 34,137 (437)
Anderson 17H #2 73,502 (194)
Anderson 17H #3 42,057 (184)
Crosby 12-1H #1 138,545 (332)
Smith 5-29H #1 72,008 (190)
CMR-Foster Creek 20-7H 29,487 (117)
Huff 18/7H #1 6,635 (34)
These are the results of the MS Wells from Goodrich and Encana through January of this year. From the MSOGB files. Obviously some great disparity and as mentioned all things revolve around cost.
From what I read and understand, and I could very well be understanding incorrectly, some of the better wells in the TMS have a decline curve a little better than the Bakken wells and better than the average EFS well. It is obvious that there are more losers thus far than winners, but what does the future hold? Somebody is gambling on it.
Maybe those on this board that work and understand the patch can help us neophytes understand this a little better. Some of the wells have had problems causing shorter laterals and such.
Posted on 3/25/14 at 4:34 pm to RGV AG
quote:
From what I read and understand, and I could very well be understanding incorrectly, some of the better wells in the TMS have a decline curve a little better than the Bakken wells and better than the average EFS well
Ive read this also and if they can get issues worked out and cost of wells down I dont see why this play cant be a commercial one. Maybe not to the degree of the Bakken but maybe close
Posted on 3/25/14 at 4:36 pm to RGV AG
quote:
some of the better wells in the TMS have a decline curve a little better than the Bakken wells and better than the average EFS well
Maybe a steeper decline but much, much higher IPs in the Bakken. The Crosby 12-1H would just be another well in Bakken country.
ETA- to put it in to perspective, one of the early Bakken discovery wells flowed naturally for +6 years and cum'd over 1,200,000 bbls during that time
This post was edited on 3/25/14 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 3/25/14 at 5:23 pm to PetreauxCat
Thats a lot of.....cumulutive production
Posted on 3/25/14 at 6:00 pm to TheIndulger
quote:
Thats a lot of.....cumulutive production
Yup... I just looked it up, and it's +1.4MM bbls now. It's already a $100MM well. It was drilled in late 06. This will be +2,000,000bbls before it's all said and done.
Here is the well info for any doubters.
Current Operator: PETRO-HUNT, L.L.C.
Current Well Name: USA 2D-3-1H
ETA: I just reread the initial post... that well cum'd all over the place
This post was edited on 3/25/14 at 6:12 pm
Posted on 3/25/14 at 6:33 pm to PetreauxCat
How does that well compare to the rest though?
The TMS doesn't have to be as good as the Bakken. Just good enough to profitable.
Eta: sure wish I had that Bakken well on my property
The TMS doesn't have to be as good as the Bakken. Just good enough to profitable.
Eta: sure wish I had that Bakken well on my property
This post was edited on 3/25/14 at 6:34 pm
Posted on 3/25/14 at 7:14 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
How does that well compare to the rest though?
It's in the upper upper tier
The average Bakken well is probably 500M EUR if I had to guess, but the average cost is $8-$10MM.
Posted on 3/26/14 at 5:56 am to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
The TMS doesn't have to be as good as the Bakken. Just good enough to profitable.
But they aren't profitable. The other thing with the Bakken is it's a no miss proposition. You are going to hit on every well, it's just a matter of how much.
TMS has a higher failure rate than success at the moment.
Posted on 3/26/14 at 7:36 am to redstick13
quote:Hopefully experience will have their success rate improving
at the moment.
Posted on 3/26/14 at 9:09 am to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:You are correct, that is what we are all seeing. Hopefully with more wells and a more money it can be figured out.
TMS has a higher failure rate than success at the moment.
quote:
But they aren't profitable.
As a cumulative group I believe you are dead on, but from what I have read and can extrapolate 3-4 of the wells are on their way to being profitable, I just wonder if they will get to be profitable quickly enough. That is roughly 15-20% of the wells drilled thus far, and obviously that will not cut it for an area or play. Thus far these are not Bakken type wells, as is pointed out.
There have been some fairly forward and positive statements released in conference calls and in earnings calls. None guaranteeing assured positive results. But lots of optimism nonetheless. And the previous has been done by not one or two, but now by about four decent, or at least decently perceived, companies.
While the tone to investors has been of guarded optimism, it has been an optimistic tone. That leads me to believe that those running these companies believe they have some decent odds , and maybe they are wrong, that they can make the TMS commercially viable.
I hope it does because it would be a very good thing for that area of LA/MS.
Posted on 3/26/14 at 9:17 am to RGV AG
From what I know in the Bakken it seems like the best acreage is held by the early movers like EOG, Continental, and Marathon. A business acquaintance held some interests in the Bakken and he told me he recently sold his interests because the wells are returning lower margins now that the play is maturing. Where the initial wells provided a nice return he indicated that the last wells which were under Conoco Phillips were too marginal for a private company to hold.
Posted on 3/26/14 at 11:19 am to TigerDog83
LINK
New article from Seeking Alfa on Halcon. Fairly interesting. They make it sound so easy, I just wish it was.
New article from Seeking Alfa on Halcon. Fairly interesting. They make it sound so easy, I just wish it was.
Posted on 3/26/14 at 11:23 am to RGV AG
I can only read the first page, but it sounds like a lot more $$$$. Longer lateral, more frac stages, and more prop... Is there anything on pg 2 that makes you think the costs won't be through the roof?
Posted on 3/26/14 at 12:53 pm to PetreauxCat
Petreaux:
I am not sure if I am seeing the whole article and you are only seeing part of. Conveniently, the bottom line economics are not discussed in this article. I also have problems at times with Seeking Alpha articles, but for whatever reason I was able to read this one, I think as I don't get the "subscribe to see the rest of the article" message.
The one paragraph that stood out to me was this one, not that I fully understand it, but to an amateur it sure sounds good:
I guess the big key there is the 605MBOE of oil, as no TMS well has come close to that yet. From my rough calculations and SWAG on decline curves it would take the Crosby well about 5 years to reach that, if it ever does. And the Crosby well is the best in the area supposedly. I don't know, I hope for the best.
I appreciate your insight and commentary into this, helps us laypeople understand things a little better.
I am not sure if I am seeing the whole article and you are only seeing part of. Conveniently, the bottom line economics are not discussed in this article. I also have problems at times with Seeking Alpha articles, but for whatever reason I was able to read this one, I think as I don't get the "subscribe to see the rest of the article" message.
The one paragraph that stood out to me was this one, not that I fully understand it, but to an amateur it sure sounds good:
quote:
Finally, Halcón provide its 605Mboe "base case" type curve which is representative of the average well it expects to drill across its holdings. The curve is based on analysis of 6 wells in the play using current industry standards and then "normalized" to a 7,200 foot lateral. As shown below, Halcón expects an IRR of 40% at $12MM well cost and $90 oil. Significantly, the graphic shows that Halcón's has an average of 66% working interest across its TMS holdings, with an average royalty interest of 22% and net revenue interest of 51%
I guess the big key there is the 605MBOE of oil, as no TMS well has come close to that yet. From my rough calculations and SWAG on decline curves it would take the Crosby well about 5 years to reach that, if it ever does. And the Crosby well is the best in the area supposedly. I don't know, I hope for the best.
I appreciate your insight and commentary into this, helps us laypeople understand things a little better.
This post was edited on 3/26/14 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 3/26/14 at 3:53 pm to redstick13
quote:Yep. Hyperbolic decline with huge initial decline rates
Problem with the unconventional plays is they usually taper off in production fairly dramatically.
FWIW, they should be TDing the Beech Grove 94H soon. I think they were at 11,000' a few days ago
This post was edited on 3/26/14 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 3/26/14 at 4:02 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:Interesting to see how much the IR in their presentation differ from those reported by the state
Latest Goodrich presentation
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