re: TCU VS LSU PREDICTION

Some stats for predictions: By year, average scores for LSU and Opponent; Both Overall & (vs Top 25)

2009: 24.8 - 16.2, (13.75 - 17.25), 4 Top 25
2010: 29.7 - 18.2, (26.9 - 23.9), 7 Top 25
2011: 35.7 - 11.3, (31.6 - 14.3), 9 Top 25
2012: 29.8 - 17.5, (21.8 - 19.5), 6 Top 25

4 Year Average: 30.0 - 15.8, (23.5 - 18.7) 6.5 Top 25 Opponents

The 2011 defense was by far the best, but the other 3 years were only slightly above the 4 year average with 17.3 points per game (20.2 vs Top 25).

- If we assume that the 2013 defense is comparable to the typical defense (09, 11, 12), this would indicate that TCU should score somewhere between 17-21 points statistically.

When looking at the offense through the years, again, 2011 was special. However, the other 3 years were only slightly below the 4-year average with 28.1 points per game (20.8 vs Top 25).

- If we assume the offense isn't any worse than any of those years, LSU should score at least 21-28 points.
So, I'd say that it's safe to assume that LSU will win the game.

In opening games,
2009: 31-23 vs UW, 2010: 30-24 vs #18 UNC, 2011: 40-27 vs #3 UO, 2012: 41-14 vs UNTx

The opening game averages fall on the upper end of the season averages: 35.5 - 22.0, (35.0 - 25.5) 2 Top 25.

All things considered, I'll pick LSU 30-17.