re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30

Posted on 11/30/12 at 4:02 pm to dgtiger3

Posted by HoLeInOnEr05

Middle of the fairway

Member since Aug 2011

16840 posts

Posted on 11/30/12 at 4:02 pm to dgtiger3

You run a system for bball too?

2 ...

Report Post

Posted by UltimateHog

Oregon

Member since Dec 2011

66017 posts

Posted on 11/30/12 at 4:26 pm to HoLeInOnEr05

I would take Arkansas at home over nearly anyone getting points.

We'll either pull the upset, or get blown out.

We did start 17-0 at home last year and whipped a Top 10 Michigan team, it's not like Syracuse will be anything different in BWA, but I still wouldn't touch it.

Inconsistent shooting against that zone and we could get blown out, but like I said, we're usually 'on' at home.

It went down to +7? When I went to bed it was +8.5.

1 ...

Report Post

Posted by dgtiger3

Prairieville

Member since Sep 2005

5701 posts

Posted on 11/30/12 at 4:29 pm to HoLeInOnEr05

quote:
You run a system for bball too?

Honestly basketball was the first sport that really got me into advanced statistics and predicting value of teams.

This early in the year I just look for value in the lines, I try to bet on the teams that I feel the line has been set to favor, Usually a team with a worse record, or coming off a bad shooting night or two, because it is generally a "what have you done for me lately" market.

I have found that if I focus on teams that play 10 points better at home than they do on the road you can really find some value, especially with so many teams in college hoops. I love fading those teams on the road when they are favored against a inferior opponent that team that also plays much better at home.

0 ...

Report Post

More Sports - Replies to Post

Return To Board

Page 1

Return To Board