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Message
re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
Posted on 11/28/12 at 1:51 pm to treble hook
Posted on 11/28/12 at 1:51 pm to treble hook
quote:
Cliff would be proud
haha....
Professor Ji-Chai Lin would be proud. Cliff would try to use it to make money somehow! And I'd let him.
Posted on 11/28/12 at 2:49 pm to SouthOfSouth
Awesome stuff.
What do you do for a living, if you don't mind me asking? This seems pretty time-consuming.
What kind of background do you have in statistics, particularly sports statistics? Just wondering how someone can become so immersed and seemingly proficient in this, it's fascinating, really.
Also, I'm a bit curious about your connections to LSU hoops. I've always been impressed with your in-depth knowledge of the team, to go with a passion for the program that it desperately needs.
What do you do for a living, if you don't mind me asking? This seems pretty time-consuming.
What kind of background do you have in statistics, particularly sports statistics? Just wondering how someone can become so immersed and seemingly proficient in this, it's fascinating, really.
Also, I'm a bit curious about your connections to LSU hoops. I've always been impressed with your in-depth knowledge of the team, to go with a passion for the program that it desperately needs.
Posted on 11/28/12 at 2:57 pm to lsu2006
quote:
What do you do for a living, if you don't mind me asking? This seems pretty time-consuming.
I do some accounting work for a construction company. I am a very quick and efficient worker. When I work, I work my arse off, when I don't work, I do things like this. I was able to do this pretty quickly. I already keep spreadsheets of stats so its just copy and pasting formulas to make this work.
quote:
What kind of background do you have in statistics, particularly sports statistics? Just wondering how someone can become so immersed and seemingly proficient in this, it's fascinating, really.
I have a bs and ms in finance. I took 2 PhD classes when I was thinking about getting my PhD in finance; financial research and math for economist. Both of these really helped my skills in statistics and using equations.
quote:
Also, I'm a bit curious about your connections to LSU hoops. I've always been impressed with your in-depth knowledge of the team, to go with a passion for the program that it desperately needs.
My late father and I would go to games since I can remember. I continued my love. In 2007 (Spring of my Freshman year) I worked at the PMAC setting up and tearing down for basketball games. Besides that, I have always loved stats. People can see whatever they want about players, but stats do not lie. So using stats has been something thatI have always loved.
This post was edited on 11/28/12 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 11/28/12 at 6:53 pm to SouthOfSouth
quote:
No hockey assists. While the pass before the pass can be important, I decided it did not need to be included... (I know this is a joke; but still)
It wasn't completely a joke. I just recently learned about teams tracking hockey stats for basketball, so that's why I asked.
It was kind of a joke because you factor in so much else that it would probably get cumbersome if you tried to put it in there.
Posted on 11/29/12 at 6:28 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
It wasn't completely a joke. I just recently learned about teams tracking hockey stats for basketball, so that's why I asked.
It was kind of a joke because you factor in so much else that it would probably get cumbersome if you tried to put it in there.
Sometimes you get the best explanation out of simplicity.
Posted on 11/29/12 at 11:44 pm to SouthOfSouth
Looking for the updated #s...
I guess ludwigs don't change as he didn't start and got 0
min.
Tuba started but didn't ever come back. Thinking he wasn't effective during pt.
Carmouche had 7 assists? Wow...
I think in crunch time you will only see combos of these guys:
Hickey
Stringer
Carmouche
Morgan
Hammink
Coleman
JOB
I guess ludwigs don't change as he didn't start and got 0
min.
Tuba started but didn't ever come back. Thinking he wasn't effective during pt.
Carmouche had 7 assists? Wow...
I think in crunch time you will only see combos of these guys:
Hickey
Stringer
Carmouche
Morgan
Hammink
Coleman
JOB
Posted on 11/29/12 at 11:46 pm to GeismarGeauxer
quote:
I think in crunch time you will only see combos of these guys:
Hickey
Stringer
Carmouche
Morgan
Hammink
Coleman
JOB
exactly. depth is going to really hurt us in the SEC schedule with only 7 "legit" players. Maybe courtney and Collins can help out, but they really don't deserve significant PT.
Posted on 11/30/12 at 12:02 am to SouthOfSouth
1) I never knew you were that smart.
2) you must be a huge basketball fan.
3) thought about getting paid for this like moneyball?
2) you must be a huge basketball fan.
3) thought about getting paid for this like moneyball?
Posted on 11/30/12 at 12:07 am to Harry Caray
Courtney looked pretty good playing press D at the end of the game.
Posted on 11/30/12 at 7:45 am to SouthOfSouth
This is golden. I don't like the name. sos sounds too much like strength of schedule. How about StatOS Rating? It isn't as exact as an acronym, but has better legs w regard to branding.
Posted on 11/30/12 at 7:53 am to SouthOfSouth
Sound methodology.
You should contact the guy that wrote the book, "Bringing down the House" about the MIT Vegas card-counting team.
At the end of the book he reveals his true identity and the fact that he uses his math to develop statistical and mathematical models to rate players.
I can only wonder if he has seen your presentation or a similar variation.
Again, your logic is sound and the time coefficient is a neat trick for valuing on the court worth.
I enjoy your posts. LSU basketball is definitely on the rise.
You should contact the guy that wrote the book, "Bringing down the House" about the MIT Vegas card-counting team.
At the end of the book he reveals his true identity and the fact that he uses his math to develop statistical and mathematical models to rate players.
I can only wonder if he has seen your presentation or a similar variation.
Again, your logic is sound and the time coefficient is a neat trick for valuing on the court worth.
I enjoy your posts. LSU basketball is definitely on the rise.
Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:05 am to Russianblue
quote:
This is golden. I don't like the name. sos sounds too much like strength of schedule. How about StatOS Rating? It isn't as exact as an acronym, but has better legs w regard to branding.
Well it is really just cause that's what people on here call me. Its a self-named rating system. I kinda used a play on words that made sense calling it score on stats cause basically that's what it is, but it's really just because my South of South pinname.
Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:27 am to Russianblue
quote:
This is golden. I don't like the name. sos sounds too much like strength of schedule.
I agree with this guy
great work, but it's going to look like Strength of Schedule to everyone...I thought that's what it was going to be when I clicked on the thread
This is freaking awesome, though. Can't wait to see it updated throughout the season
This post was edited on 11/30/12 at 8:34 am
Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:36 am to SouthOfSouth
I really enjoy and appreciate your posts. Keep em coming.
Btw, did you think of this yourself? I could see it becoming an accepted major metric frankly.
Btw, did you think of this yourself? I could see it becoming an accepted major metric frankly.
Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:37 am to Eighteen
It reminds me of the NBA Efficiency formula they use on NBA.com
LINK
Maybe you could plug this formula into your excel sheet too, so we can see what it would look like using the NBA formula to college players (although I think your rating is actually superior)
quote:
NBA.com evaluates all players based on the efficiency formula: ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).
LINK
Maybe you could plug this formula into your excel sheet too, so we can see what it would look like using the NBA formula to college players (although I think your rating is actually superior)
Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:05 am to BigEdLSU
quote:
Btw, did you think of this yourself? I could see it becoming an accepted major metric frankly.
Yea. When I was in my financial research class and started learning what economist and financial experts used equations for it made me realize how far their worth can go. I have wanted to put something together for a while and I finally did it.
Math is a very special science that can be used in all sorts of nerdy ways.
Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:09 am to SouthOfSouth
What's the derivative of the square root of the reciprocal of your SoS rating? Honestly that's all I care about.
Then multiply Rummy's paycheck by epsilon.
Then multiply Rummy's paycheck by epsilon.
Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:45 am to Eighteen
quote:
NBA.com evaluates all players based on the efficiency formula: ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).
The main problem I have with NBA's PER is that it gives too much bias to players who are scorers. To count a block as the same value as a single point is crazy to me. Similar with steals. It doesn't give credit where credit is due. There are so many instances where the easiest part of the play was the layup due to a great pass, but the shooter gets 2 points and the great pass only gets 1.
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