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Who to Pull for Saturday
Posted on 11/23/12 at 5:49 pm
Posted on 11/23/12 at 5:49 pm
For details about what we need to happen for an SECCG, BCS Bowl, or even NC see the OFFICIAL BCS THREAD
There will be 100 threads about this, so lets get it out of the way. Most games are obvious, but maybe not to everyone. Spare us the "we don't have a shot" or "we don't deserve it" comments. Games are listed in relative order of importance. The SECCG, Automatic BCS bid (top 4 finish), BCS invite, and even the unlikely NC birth are alll considerations
1. AUBURN over ALABAMA. Any chance at an SEC Championship (or a NC for that matter) hinges on a huge Auburn upset.
2. FSU over FLORIDA. Assuming Bama does beat AU, for LSU to receive an at large BCS bowl bid, Florida would need to fall. If LSU sneaks in to the SECCG and has an outside chance at a NC, we would also likely need Florida to lose to FSU.
3. TEXAS A&M versus MISSOURI. Who to pull for here depends on the winner of the iron bowl (and the iron bowl is first). If Auburn pulls off the upset, we need A&M to win to force a 3-way tie in the SEC West – this sending LSU to the SECCG. If Bama wins, then they clinch the SECW – in which case we would want A&M to lose to make sure they don’t get selected for a BCS bowl.
4. OREGON STATE over OREGON. Slightly complicated. If you think we have any chance at a National Title we need Oregon to lose a game. But if you want LSU to go to the Rose Bowl, having Oregon win the Pac 12 and sneak back in to the NC game would be a necessity.
5. USC over NOTRE DAME. A Notre Dame loss would be good for a few reasons. First, it is possible LSU could finish above 1-loss Notre Dame in the BCS – if LSU did win the SEC. Second, the Sugar Bowl might use their at-large to select Notre Dame leaving the Rose or Fiesta to choose an SEC team. My personal opinion is that LSU would be more desirable to those bowls than the Sugar since we have never been.
6. UCLA over STANFORD. If Oregon does beat OSU, we would want Oregon to make the Pac12 CG. That would give them another chance to lose a game and fall behind LSU in the BCS standings. It would also give them a chance to stay in the NC hunt, which would be the only way LSU got to the Rose Bowl.
7. SOUTH CAROLINA over CLEMSON. There is an outside chance that Clemson could pass LSU in the BCS, so this would be good. Plus, any opportunity to make the SEC look good (and the ACC bad) is a good thing.
8. GEORGIA over GEORGIA TECH. If LSU sneaks in the SECCG, the NC dream is alive. Playing and beating a 1-loss, #2 Georgia team would be an important step to that dream
(LOSS) WASHINGTON (28) over WASHINGTON STATE (31). Not really necessary, but that Washington win is starting to look really good. If the BCS standings come down to decimal places, a game like this could play a role.
10. VANDY over WAKE FORREST. Don’t really think this matters, but any chance to make the SEC look better and the ACC worse is good for LSU.
Next week (pending this weeks results): Texas over KSU, Ga Tech over FSU, UCLA over Oregon?, LSU over Georgia
There will be 100 threads about this, so lets get it out of the way. Most games are obvious, but maybe not to everyone. Spare us the "we don't have a shot" or "we don't deserve it" comments. Games are listed in relative order of importance. The SECCG, Automatic BCS bid (top 4 finish), BCS invite, and even the unlikely NC birth are alll considerations
1. AUBURN over ALABAMA. Any chance at an SEC Championship (or a NC for that matter) hinges on a huge Auburn upset.
2. FSU over FLORIDA. Assuming Bama does beat AU, for LSU to receive an at large BCS bowl bid, Florida would need to fall. If LSU sneaks in to the SECCG and has an outside chance at a NC, we would also likely need Florida to lose to FSU.
3. TEXAS A&M versus MISSOURI. Who to pull for here depends on the winner of the iron bowl (and the iron bowl is first). If Auburn pulls off the upset, we need A&M to win to force a 3-way tie in the SEC West – this sending LSU to the SECCG. If Bama wins, then they clinch the SECW – in which case we would want A&M to lose to make sure they don’t get selected for a BCS bowl.
4. OREGON STATE over OREGON. Slightly complicated. If you think we have any chance at a National Title we need Oregon to lose a game. But if you want LSU to go to the Rose Bowl, having Oregon win the Pac 12 and sneak back in to the NC game would be a necessity.
5. USC over NOTRE DAME. A Notre Dame loss would be good for a few reasons. First, it is possible LSU could finish above 1-loss Notre Dame in the BCS – if LSU did win the SEC. Second, the Sugar Bowl might use their at-large to select Notre Dame leaving the Rose or Fiesta to choose an SEC team. My personal opinion is that LSU would be more desirable to those bowls than the Sugar since we have never been.
6. UCLA over STANFORD. If Oregon does beat OSU, we would want Oregon to make the Pac12 CG. That would give them another chance to lose a game and fall behind LSU in the BCS standings. It would also give them a chance to stay in the NC hunt, which would be the only way LSU got to the Rose Bowl.
7. SOUTH CAROLINA over CLEMSON. There is an outside chance that Clemson could pass LSU in the BCS, so this would be good. Plus, any opportunity to make the SEC look good (and the ACC bad) is a good thing.
8. GEORGIA over GEORGIA TECH. If LSU sneaks in the SECCG, the NC dream is alive. Playing and beating a 1-loss, #2 Georgia team would be an important step to that dream
(LOSS) WASHINGTON (28) over WASHINGTON STATE (31). Not really necessary, but that Washington win is starting to look really good. If the BCS standings come down to decimal places, a game like this could play a role.
10. VANDY over WAKE FORREST. Don’t really think this matters, but any chance to make the SEC look better and the ACC worse is good for LSU.
Next week (pending this weeks results): Texas over KSU, Ga Tech over FSU, UCLA over Oregon?, LSU over Georgia
This post was edited on 11/24/12 at 11:51 am
Posted on 11/23/12 at 5:50 pm to lsumatt
All of the teams Notre Dame played to lose
Oklahoma state needs to beat Oklahoma most importantly.
And a Michigan win over Ohio State would be nice since it has AP championship ramifications. If LSU ends up 12-2 BCS champs, I have a feeling OSU would be AP champ if undefeated
Oklahoma state needs to beat Oklahoma most importantly.
And a Michigan win over Ohio State would be nice since it has AP championship ramifications. If LSU ends up 12-2 BCS champs, I have a feeling OSU would be AP champ if undefeated
This post was edited on 11/23/12 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 11/23/12 at 5:59 pm to lsumatt
we should be pulling for Florida St to beat Florida to better our chances of getting in the sugar bowl
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:02 pm to lsumatt
If, somehow, someway, all of these outcomes actually happened, words couldn't even describe....
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:05 pm to lsumatt
For an outside shot at the Rose Bowl, we also need Stanford to lose. The Rose Bowl selection committee will try to keep their Pac 12-Big Ten tradition.
ETA: Stanford plays UCLA tomorrow.
ETA: Stanford plays UCLA tomorrow.
This post was edited on 11/23/12 at 10:54 pm
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:05 pm to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
I love you with all my heart.
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:08 pm to lsumatt
Great Analysis. One mishap:
Texas over KSU
ETA:
If numbers 1-4 happen this week, then next week: Texas over KSU and Ga Tech over FSU become the 2 most important games for our BCSNCG chances, assuming we win the SECCG.
quote:
Next week (pending this weeks results): Kansas over KSU
Texas over KSU
ETA:
If numbers 1-4 happen this week, then next week: Texas over KSU and Ga Tech over FSU become the 2 most important games for our BCSNCG chances, assuming we win the SECCG.
This post was edited on 11/23/12 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:16 pm to PhiTiger1764
If all that happens and we proceed to get skullfricked by UGA, then what?
Go bama and Go mizzou!
Go bama and Go mizzou!
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:17 pm to PhiTiger1764
As far as the NC opportunity, I think the voters would keep us far enough down to not allow us to make it to the game. Here's to praying for chaos.
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:19 pm to lsumatt
I doubted you in 07
I shall never doubt you again
I shall never doubt you again
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:20 pm to LSUSUPERSTAR
quote:
As far as the NC opportunity, I think the voters would keep us far enough down to not allow us to make it to the game. Here's to praying for chaos.
If everyone but ND has 2 losses, and we go on to win the SECCG, it will be LSU vs. ND in the Title game. I do think that we would have to win the SECCG for us to have any shot at getting in the big game though.
ETA: Clemson may have to lose to USC as well
This post was edited on 11/23/12 at 6:22 pm
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:26 pm to Moustache
quote:
If all that happens and we proceed to get skullfricked by UGA, then what?
Go bama and Go mizzou!
You'd rather be guaranteed a BCS bowl game than a shot at the SEC Title?
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:27 pm to LSUSUPERSTAR
quote:
As far as the NC opportunity, I think the voters would keep us far enough down to not allow us to make it to the game. Here's to praying for chaos.
If the impossible does happen and all the teams we need to lose lose who would they put over us? They would love to have the SEC champion (LSU) play ND in the national championship
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:29 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
You'd rather be guaranteed a BCS bowl game than a shot at the SEC Title?
That's the thing: We wouldn't really have a shot to beat someone of UGA's caliber at this point. Les said we were banged up today. He admitted it. This is strangely similar to 05 if we make the SECCG.
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:29 pm to KingwoodLsuFan
Well Washington just screwed us. It's all over.
Posted on 11/23/12 at 6:32 pm to LSUSUPERSTAR
Not yet we just need Oregon state to beat Oregon, FSU to beat Florida, Auburn to beat bama, Texas to beat K state, and then we beat Georgia in the SEC championship.
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