re: Greece - Do They Make it to June 17th?

quote:

---

And really the issue with leaving the Euro is bank debt, not necessarily the sovereign anymore?

---

I'm pretty sure this is the case. If it's a disorderly exit the SMP and other programs just bite the bullet on the sovereign. The bank debt gets really hairy, as in I'm not sure at all how that will work. Will ECB loans (MRO, LTRO, OT) be defaulted or will they redenominate the loans? Both of these scenarios are pretty much the same because if the drachma is reintroduced the amount of inflation will just be stupid in the first year. That's not even starting to get into the longer term, private debt as well as the cross-country payment balances that are still in place.

I'm in the same boat with the CFA. I'm really starting to hate the chick on the front of the Schweser books with her smug arse smile.