re: Trends in NBA draft lottery

Here's a TrueHoop article on how to fix tanking and the lottery. Here's one of their ideas

quote:

---

Like NBA teams and markets, few sales forces have the same profile. Some may have a lot of customers while others have a few, and some may require a lot of travel while others have very little. As a result, there is variation in the opportunity each sales rep has -- not every territory is created equal. Similarly, not every NBA team should be expected to win 50 games at the start of the season. In addition, most reps or teams have a pretty good sense of how they will end up before the season even started.

---

quote:

---

There are a variety of techniques used to set goals, accounting for a complicated range of factors. The league could invite a committee of John Hollinger, Kevin Pelton, Dean Oliver and other analytical experts to set the goals using their models. Another approach would be to "crowd source" the goals. The goals could be developed by surveying the teams (presumably the GMs), but there is another set of widely available crowd sourced goals for each team before the season begins: Vegas over/unders.

---

LINK

There's a lot more detail. Interesting idea- rewards teams that don't tank and also helps out those teams that are normally stuck in no man's land in the draft- good enough to be a solid playoff team, but not good enough to contend.

One problem is that it doesn't take into account injuries- Hornets would be picking 29th based on this system