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Went long gold today

Posted on 11/30/11 at 10:16 am
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8086 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 10:16 am
Gold had been looking like it was going into a correction the last couple of weeks, but failed to break down. With the nice price action this morning I put on a starter position in gold.

Looks like the FED and the Euro's are going to crank up the presses here soon.

LINK

Seems that a large Euro bank could have been on the brink.

Oil would also be a good trade right now.
This post was edited on 11/30/11 at 11:32 am
Posted by saltydawg
corn country
Member since Sep 2011
1937 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 10:23 am to
Brave soul. Monday the prospects for a Euro bailout were dim, and today things are looking up. If the pigs ultimately fail, should be interesting to see how far PMs get taken down.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8086 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 10:42 am to
A small position with stops in place...Stops and risk management are key in the PM market.
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 11:23 am to
quote:

Went long on gold today


no need to say "on"
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8086 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 11:32 am to
Touchy...
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 11:41 am to


Nah, just friendly lingo advice.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 11:44 am to
Maybe he threw a 40 yard pass after snorting gold?
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8086 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 11:49 am to
No I snort Platinum. Gold gets injected :) But yes, the proper terminology does not have on in it.
Posted by Beerinthepocket
Dallas
Member since May 2011
883 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 1:06 pm to
Gold has all the signs of a bubble and basically only has sentimental value. The bottom could drop out of that anytime, sucker bet in my opinion.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8086 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 1:18 pm to
What signs are those? The bottom could drop out of anything (stocks, mutual fund, etc) at any time.
Posted by Interception
Member since Nov 2008
11089 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 1:59 pm to
2,000 an oz. seems inevitable doesn't it?
Posted by Beerinthepocket
Dallas
Member since May 2011
883 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 2:39 pm to
People seem to think any situation is good for gold. Inflation high? good for gold. Inflation low? good for gold, etc. People said the same thing about real estate in the first half of the 2000s. Think about it, what is it that actually causes gold to be valuable? Does it create value? Create future cash flows? (aside from terminal value when you sell it which seems to be completely arbitrary) Does it have some important industrial use? (few are far in between)Myself and finance PhDs that I have spoken to do not see where this enormous amount of value the market seems to think gold has comes from.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8086 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

what is it that actually causes gold to be valuable?


I don't think of gold as a shiny chunk of metal that I'll be hoarding in case of anarchy breaking out.

I think of it as a currency. Other currencies are in a race to the bottom so massive amounts of debt can be monetized. One can deny that that is happening if they want, but shortly the ECB will be forced to print money to prevent a banking crisis and the US will have to follow suit to keep the dollar from skyrocketing against the Euro.

quote:

Myself and finance PhDs that I have spoken to do not see where this enormous amount of value the market seems to think gold has comes from.


Its valuable the same reason a stock sold on the market is valuable, as more people buy it, price goes up. The trick is to have sold yours before everyone else starts to sell as only so many people can fit through a door at one time.
Posted by The Easter Bunny
Santa Barbara
Member since Jan 2005
45654 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

Its valuable the same reason a stock sold on the market is valuable, as more people buy it, price goes up.


At least with stocks I can look at earnings. I just have no idea how to get a valuation on gold
Posted by LSURep864
Moscow, Idaho
Member since Nov 2007
11236 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 6:29 pm to
at the idea of gold being a bubble.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 11/30/11 at 6:45 pm to
Gold threads, guaranteed to produce golden replies of all manner.
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 12/1/11 at 8:01 am to
About yesterday...

IIRC, in early Sept of 2008, we had a 1000 point drop in the Dow in about 2 weeks. On 18 Sept, 2008, the Fed announced an increase in the currency swap lines with Europe and the Swiss, and also new lines with BOJ, Canadian Central Bank and BOE.

The ensuing result was a huge rally in the Dow that lasted (roughly) a couple of weeks.

They just buying time. Next up, the FED will be buying Euro sovereign bonds. That's where it gets very dicey politically.

Yesterday just reeks of desperation.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/1/11 at 8:44 am to
I'd love for you to elaborate on that...
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8086 posts
Posted on 12/1/11 at 9:32 am to
quote:

IIRC, in early Sept of 2008, we had a 1000 point drop in the Dow in about 2 weeks. On 18 Sept, 2008, the Fed announced an increase in the currency swap lines with Europe and the Swiss, and also new lines with BOJ, Canadian Central Bank and BOE.


This was not the only thing that happened from a liquidity stand point in the last week.

1. IMF liquidity arrangements made last Tuesday.

2. A FED vice chair releasing a statement containing the quote, "The Federal Reserve continues to provide highly accommodative monetary conditions to foster a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

3. The Euro EFSF plan that will increase a fund to lend to/or buy soverign debt to approximately 1 Trillion dollars.

4. China dropped the reserve requirements for it's banks for the first time since 2008.

Desperation? Maybe, but I'd call it a coordinated plan by central banks.

Now does all of this mean for sure that gold/commodities will go up? I don't know, and am willing to admit I don't know. I've placed my bet so to speak with stops in place and we shall see.
This post was edited on 12/1/11 at 9:37 am
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/1/11 at 9:44 am to
#3 isn't new, and in fact, all that really came about was that they seem almost certain that they cannot get 1T committed, and thus the reason for pressure on item #1 to try and alleviate that problem.
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