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LSU vs. Bama...Inside The Stats
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:30 pm
A few stats that might add some insight into this matchup...
Defense...
Bama is ranked 1st in both total and scoring defense with LSU ranked 3rd in both categories. A couple of key points when evaluating these...
Rankings of Offenses Faced
Bama - 22, 76, 90 91, 105, 111, 116, 120
LSU - 6, 13, 75, 90, 91, 93, 118 (minus nwst)
Scoring
Bama has allowed 30 points in the first quarter, but shuts teams down in the second with only 3 points allowed. LSU, on the other hand, has only allowed 12 in the first quarter and 27 in the second. Bama has a big edge in second half scoring, but Oregon and West Va account for all but 3 points in the difference (6 and 13th ranked offenses). In addition, Bama doesn't give up garbage time touchdowns, while LSU has given up 3 this year.
Offense...
Alabama is ranked 23rd in Total Offense compared to LSU at 78, however Alabama has only scored 1 more point than LSU this year on offense.
Rankings of Defenses Faced
Bama - 8, 11, 22, 23, 48, 64, 108, 110 (kent st is 22)
LSU - 11, 21, 31, 48, 65, 66, 75 (minus nwst)
Scoring
As mentioned, the teams are even in terms of scoring, however LSU's biggest quarter is the 2nd, while Bama's is the third. The teams seem to be very close in style. Richardson is clearly the best back, but LSU's "committee" isn't bad. The big difference seems to be in 2nd half philosophy. LSU's goal is to play keep away and chew up time in the running game, while Bama favors a little more of a "put the game out of reach" approach.
For example, the last 3 games have been virtually identical for both teams. In looking at second half run/pass ratio, LSU is 25 pass / 78 run while Bama is 30 pass / 40 run. Factoring out garbage time, bama is close to 45% pass in the second half. Both teams hope that the opponent is pretty much whipped by mid 3rd quarter and this will be the first time this year that either will face a team that probably won't be.
Miscellaneous / Intangibles...
National ranking comparisons...
Kickoff Returns: LSU 29, Bama 35
Kick Coverage: LSU 33, Bama 35
Net Punting: LSU 6, Bama 71
Punt Return: LSU 62, Bama 20
Punt Coverage: LSU 5, Bama 37
Turnover Margin: LSU 2, Bama 19
Penalties: LSU 74, Bama 2 (alert sirens going off)
Tackles for Loss: LSU 15, Bama 48
Sacks Allowed: LSU 14, Bama 39
Red Zone Offense: LSU 2, Bama 46
Time of Possession: LSU 8, Bama 17
LSU has a 9-2 edge in these key categories
Fore's Keys to the Game...
1. Can Bama stop LSU's running game with their front 7? LSU basically begs teams to load the box then burns them with Randle on the vertical routes. Bama's top 4 tacklers include 3 linebackers. LSU needs to bust some 8-10 yarders to force Barron and Lester to bite on the run fakes. Randle should be able to beat Menzie in man coverage.
2. Who will win the field position battle? LSU stayed in the game 2 years ago against eventual BCS champ Bama, in large part because of field position. Bama has given up some yardage in the return game, and LSU is off the charts in Net Punting (38 punts, 11 returns for 7 total yards). These factors could yield some situations where LSU is starting in the 35-40 range with Bama starting in the 10-15 range.
3. What happens in the 2nd quarter? LSU has scored 99 points in the 2nd while Bama has allowed 3.
4. Who makes the big defensive play? Easy to see this game coming down to a big play on a pick or fumble. Both teams are capable.
5. Does Bama have a home field advantage? To me this seems pretty easy, LSU appears to thrive in situations like this and Les has 2 weeks to prepare.
LSU 27 - Bama 21
Defense...
Bama is ranked 1st in both total and scoring defense with LSU ranked 3rd in both categories. A couple of key points when evaluating these...
Rankings of Offenses Faced
Bama - 22, 76, 90 91, 105, 111, 116, 120
LSU - 6, 13, 75, 90, 91, 93, 118 (minus nwst)
Scoring
Bama has allowed 30 points in the first quarter, but shuts teams down in the second with only 3 points allowed. LSU, on the other hand, has only allowed 12 in the first quarter and 27 in the second. Bama has a big edge in second half scoring, but Oregon and West Va account for all but 3 points in the difference (6 and 13th ranked offenses). In addition, Bama doesn't give up garbage time touchdowns, while LSU has given up 3 this year.
Offense...
Alabama is ranked 23rd in Total Offense compared to LSU at 78, however Alabama has only scored 1 more point than LSU this year on offense.
Rankings of Defenses Faced
Bama - 8, 11, 22, 23, 48, 64, 108, 110 (kent st is 22)
LSU - 11, 21, 31, 48, 65, 66, 75 (minus nwst)
Scoring
As mentioned, the teams are even in terms of scoring, however LSU's biggest quarter is the 2nd, while Bama's is the third. The teams seem to be very close in style. Richardson is clearly the best back, but LSU's "committee" isn't bad. The big difference seems to be in 2nd half philosophy. LSU's goal is to play keep away and chew up time in the running game, while Bama favors a little more of a "put the game out of reach" approach.
For example, the last 3 games have been virtually identical for both teams. In looking at second half run/pass ratio, LSU is 25 pass / 78 run while Bama is 30 pass / 40 run. Factoring out garbage time, bama is close to 45% pass in the second half. Both teams hope that the opponent is pretty much whipped by mid 3rd quarter and this will be the first time this year that either will face a team that probably won't be.
Miscellaneous / Intangibles...
National ranking comparisons...
Kickoff Returns: LSU 29, Bama 35
Kick Coverage: LSU 33, Bama 35
Net Punting: LSU 6, Bama 71
Punt Return: LSU 62, Bama 20
Punt Coverage: LSU 5, Bama 37
Turnover Margin: LSU 2, Bama 19
Penalties: LSU 74, Bama 2 (alert sirens going off)
Tackles for Loss: LSU 15, Bama 48
Sacks Allowed: LSU 14, Bama 39
Red Zone Offense: LSU 2, Bama 46
Time of Possession: LSU 8, Bama 17
LSU has a 9-2 edge in these key categories
Fore's Keys to the Game...
1. Can Bama stop LSU's running game with their front 7? LSU basically begs teams to load the box then burns them with Randle on the vertical routes. Bama's top 4 tacklers include 3 linebackers. LSU needs to bust some 8-10 yarders to force Barron and Lester to bite on the run fakes. Randle should be able to beat Menzie in man coverage.
2. Who will win the field position battle? LSU stayed in the game 2 years ago against eventual BCS champ Bama, in large part because of field position. Bama has given up some yardage in the return game, and LSU is off the charts in Net Punting (38 punts, 11 returns for 7 total yards). These factors could yield some situations where LSU is starting in the 35-40 range with Bama starting in the 10-15 range.
3. What happens in the 2nd quarter? LSU has scored 99 points in the 2nd while Bama has allowed 3.
4. Who makes the big defensive play? Easy to see this game coming down to a big play on a pick or fumble. Both teams are capable.
5. Does Bama have a home field advantage? To me this seems pretty easy, LSU appears to thrive in situations like this and Les has 2 weeks to prepare.
LSU 27 - Bama 21
10
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:33 pm to ForeLSU
Long.
The most interesting stat I found is that LSU is 5-2 in their last 7 trips to Bama.
The most interesting stat I found is that LSU is 5-2 in their last 7 trips to Bama.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:37 pm to graychef
quote:
Long.
I think a "thanks for your work" would have been just fine, but there are so many dicks on here these days, it just doesn't matter.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:38 pm to ForeLSU
Good post!
My biggest concern remains the Zebras.
Bama fans will tell you how "disciplined" and "well coached" Bama is to have so few penalties.
The rest of college football knows better. Their OLine holds better than any team in college football.
My biggest concern remains the Zebras.
Bama fans will tell you how "disciplined" and "well coached" Bama is to have so few penalties.
The rest of college football knows better. Their OLine holds better than any team in college football.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:39 pm to ForeLSU
quote:
Net Punting: LSU 6, Bama 71
Ballgame.
LSU victory.
Not sure if I'm serious?
I'm serious.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:42 pm to TigerCorp
Refs are going to be under microscope and is not something you can control. Saban will play field position and the big mistake will determine this game. Plus 2 turnovers by either team will be hard to overcome. Can not wait for the SECBCSNC Game.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:43 pm to TigerBite
Good info, I am feeling better and better obout how we match up with Bama.
Bama appears to be a bunch of fat asses on D. I am thinking these over weight bama D line men are going to be gassed in the 4th quarter. They have not played the 4th all season long.
Bama appears to be a bunch of fat asses on D. I am thinking these over weight bama D line men are going to be gassed in the 4th quarter. They have not played the 4th all season long.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:47 pm to ForeLSU
nice analysis. Just hope it's close in the 4th quarter.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:48 pm to LSUviaCincy
I realize nothing can be done about it, but it's the subtle calls/no calls I hate.
People don't understand how important it is to Bama's offense to get away with grabbing Dlineman outside their shoulder pads.
I just find it funny how Saban's LSU teams were rarely if ever among the leaders in fewest penalties and Bama has been near the top every year with him.
Same coach, same philosophy, same plays...but somehow everyone Bama recruits is more "disciplined". Ha ha!!!
People don't understand how important it is to Bama's offense to get away with grabbing Dlineman outside their shoulder pads.
I just find it funny how Saban's LSU teams were rarely if ever among the leaders in fewest penalties and Bama has been near the top every year with him.
Same coach, same philosophy, same plays...but somehow everyone Bama recruits is more "disciplined". Ha ha!!!
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:49 pm to bayoubreeze
quote:
A few stats that might add some insight into this matchup...
That's all I read, cause when the teams hit the field, you can throw the stats out the window.
There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Plus, 78.4% of all statistics are made up.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:51 pm to Stevo
quote:
nice analysis. Just hope it's close in the 4th quarter.
I don't
I hope LSU is getting mettenberger snaps in the 4th with two healthy senior QB's on the bench
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:53 pm to ForeLSU
Fore, that is one fine post. I really enjoyed that.
Another stat to include:
10 - 4 , which is LSU's record at Bama since 1982.
And keep this stat in mind:
1,750,012, which is the number of bad calls against LSU by refs during Bama games.
Another stat to include:
10 - 4 , which is LSU's record at Bama since 1982.
And keep this stat in mind:
1,750,012, which is the number of bad calls against LSU by refs during Bama games.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:54 pm to ForeLSU
You need to analyze the third quarter stats. Tigers win this one by 14+. Bet it if you wish.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:54 pm to TigerCorp
quote:
I realize nothing can be done about it, but it's the subtle calls/no calls I hate.
we've got to stay away from the personal fouls...
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:57 pm to graychef
But but but saban wasn't the coach at bama all those years.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 9:58 pm to OTIS2
quote:
You need to analyze the third quarter stats.
Can't really see much in the third quarter because of the number of mis-matches on both schedules. The second half of this game should be something that neither team has had to face this year.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 10:13 pm to ForeLSU
Excellent comparisons. Thanks for the hard work.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 10:18 pm to TigerPaul2
Thanks Fore. Great job.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 10:26 pm to Gulf Coast Tiger
Solid post. Two excellent teams who've gotten there with subtle differences in their strengths and weaknesses. All should make for a great game.
If the refs will just call it straight.
If the refs will just call it straight.
Posted on 10/23/11 at 10:30 pm to ForeLSU
Great post! I'm hoping for a double-digit win, to keep our streak alive. But I'd settle for a one-point win, of course! I'll go with 29-19 LSU.
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