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NYT Takes a Deep Look at Realignment, Fanbase #'s
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:19 pm
Geography of College Football Fans and Realignment
quote:
The only two conferences that can feel completely secure right now are the Big Ten and the S.E.C..
They’re the two that have taken the most conservative attitude toward expansion over the past decade or two, waiting for programs of the caliber of Penn State, Nebraska and Texas A&M to become interested before increasing their ranks. They’ve been rewarded with extreme loyalty among their fan bases. In a sport where rooting interests are so highly localized, that goes a long way toward explaining their success.
3
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:23 pm to Smoke Ring
They extrapolate there are more AU fans than Bama fans. Their methodology is obviously imperfect. (serious.)
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:23 pm to Smoke Ring
Must say, I was shocked to read the most objective, comprehensive article on realignment from the folks at NYT.
The facts are polarizing. Someone needs to send this to Finebaum. Hopefully, it will allow him and his audience to engage in a little critical thinking (but not really critical) to see why this is the correct move.
The facts are polarizing. Someone needs to send this to Finebaum. Hopefully, it will allow him and his audience to engage in a little critical thinking (but not really critical) to see why this is the correct move.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:25 pm to DWag215
very in depth read
good for us i guess
good for us i guess
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:28 pm to elpechis
Don't show this to ESPN. Their analysis had approximately 67% of the country pegged as die-hard orangebloods.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:32 pm to elpechis
Top 10
SEC
ACC
B1G
Big 12
PAC
Big East
SEC
ACC
B1G
Big 12
PAC
Big East
This post was edited on 9/19/11 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:33 pm to LA kid but AU fan
Nate specifically says in the article that these are estimations because getting finite data on college football fans would take an incredibly expensive study. So he's using the best information he has available. So while not perfect, it's better than what we've been working with before, which was nothing.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:35 pm to DWag215
Nate Silver has always been a great read. He gained fame back in 2007-2008 by predicting very accurately the Presidential Primaries and General Election, and was a big deal at Baseball Prospectus before that. He's not always perfect, but I think he does his best to be objective and let the numbers speak for themselves.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:39 pm to Smoke Ring
Funny that they put A&M in with Penn State and Nebraska. A&M has nowhere near the pedigree of the other two. Makes me laugh to read crap like that.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:39 pm to LA kid but AU fan
Not really. AU really is as close to the state of GA as you can be and has a strong following in the state. Even if it's a low %, GA has like 8-9 million people.
:nb4ButthurtGumps:
:nb4ButthurtGumps:
This post was edited on 9/19/11 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:40 pm to jturn17
He does admit that it's hard to get an accurate measure without spending a ton of money, but some of these numbers seem a bit off. For instance I have a hard time believing LSU ranks 4th in SEC in popularity but would rank 5th in the ACC.... Miami for instance has a fair weather national following, but they're certainly not rabid (at least not compared to most sec fan bases).
Clemson has a fairly rabid fan base but I doubt they should be ranked higher than LSU.
Clemson has a fairly rabid fan base but I doubt they should be ranked higher than LSU.
This post was edited on 9/19/11 at 2:41 pm
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:44 pm to noladan
quote:
Funny that they put A&M in with Penn State and Nebraska. A&M has nowhere near the pedigree of the other two. Makes me laugh to read crap like that.
Did you even read the article?
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:48 pm to LSU NO Tigah
quote:
Funny that they put A&M in with Penn State and Nebraska. A&M has nowhere near the pedigree of the other two. Makes me laugh to read crap like that.
Sorry, would you mind pointing out where the subtitle "pedigree" is located on the graphs? I keep looking for it but I don't see it.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:51 pm to noladan
Population counts:
Texas: 25 mil
SC and LA: 4.5-4.6 mil
So if 100% of Louisiana is counted as rabid LSU tiger fans, and only a paltry 20% of Texans are active A&M fans, we've still got you beat by 400,000 fans.
This obviously has some issues with methodology (like SC having similar population as LA but split between USCe and Clemson - I guess Clemson has out of state interest as well), but the general trends are probably true. You also have to factor that people in areas where computer use might be a bit less prevalent got shut out, but that doesn't disprove why Baylor is the second-lowest in all AQ conferences.
You could argue relative ranking like in the USNWR rankings (like whether Florida or A&M are really tied or not, etc.) but no one is going to compare A&M academically with Texas Tech, for example. The distance between what may be somewhat subjective ranking is too great.
Texas: 25 mil
SC and LA: 4.5-4.6 mil
So if 100% of Louisiana is counted as rabid LSU tiger fans, and only a paltry 20% of Texans are active A&M fans, we've still got you beat by 400,000 fans.
This obviously has some issues with methodology (like SC having similar population as LA but split between USCe and Clemson - I guess Clemson has out of state interest as well), but the general trends are probably true. You also have to factor that people in areas where computer use might be a bit less prevalent got shut out, but that doesn't disprove why Baylor is the second-lowest in all AQ conferences.
You could argue relative ranking like in the USNWR rankings (like whether Florida or A&M are really tied or not, etc.) but no one is going to compare A&M academically with Texas Tech, for example. The distance between what may be somewhat subjective ranking is too great.
This post was edited on 9/19/11 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:52 pm to noladan
quote:
He does admit that it's hard to get an accurate measure without spending a ton of money, but some of these numbers seem a bit off. For instance I have a hard time believing LSU ranks 4th in SEC in popularity but would rank 5th in the ACC.... Miami for instance has a fair weather national following, but they're certainly not rabid (at least not compared to most sec fan bases).
Agreed. No way it would place 4th in the ACC>
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:53 pm to noladan
You may very well be right being that the study is an online survey (always skewed). It may not be perfect, but it's at least a starting point with somewhat of an objective perspective.
The ACC schools are mostly benefiting from being near bigger cities, where there are more casual "fans" than what LSU would have. This is easily the case in Miami, where there are lots of UM fans, but very few who actually are rabid fans. However, that's another study entirely trying to separate out casual, average, and rabid fans and applying weighted percentages for each.
The ACC schools are mostly benefiting from being near bigger cities, where there are more casual "fans" than what LSU would have. This is easily the case in Miami, where there are lots of UM fans, but very few who actually are rabid fans. However, that's another study entirely trying to separate out casual, average, and rabid fans and applying weighted percentages for each.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:55 pm to jread07
wait, vandy has almost 400k hardcore fans?
and they still can't fill up a small stadium?
and they still can't fill up a small stadium?
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:56 pm to jread07
Clemson is the 10th most popular football program in the nation 
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:57 pm to molsusports
and no way GT has that many fans
Posted on 9/19/11 at 3:05 pm to DWag215
quote:
Must say, I was shocked to read the most objective, comprehensive article on realignment from the folks at NYT.
The New York Times is probably the best newspaper in the country
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