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Message
2011 Ground N Pound Projection
Posted on 5/23/11 at 9:49 am
Posted on 5/23/11 at 9:49 am
I'll start off by saying I wasn't initially heads over heels dealing for Ingram. The more I've looked at it though the more I like it. There are windows of opportunity for teams to push all out. Gotta give Payton and Loomis credit for recognizing that and going for it.
Here's what I was looking at...
Saints Rushing Yds Per Yr Since Payton
06 1761
07 1466
08 1594
09 2106
10 1519
What jumps out there? The championship season was 30%+ higher. I think Payton wants to run more. There has just been a deficit of talent though. 07, 08, & 10 were really making do, shuffling bodies around. Deuce still had gas in 06 but was on the downhill side.
So what might we expect this year? (still hoping against hope for football) I think Ingram will be a rock toter, a closer. Something like how Mike Bell did in 09 but on the level of carries like Deuce in 06. That would project like this...
2106 team yds like 09
Ingram at 1263 yds would equal Deuce's 06 60% of team yds.
That would leave 843 yds to spread around. PT could have 500-600 and if Reggie back 200-300. That's not even accounting for Ivory. We know the injury history of Reggie, PT, & Hamilton. Ivory looked good but his history is worse and lisfranc surgery is very serious. As of 03/28 he was just starting to put weight on it. Adding a workhorse was a good move. *PS, this one can block and catch too.
I've gone from not so revved and just trusting them to full fledged excited to what Ingram might mean to team success. I'm going as far to say we'll see the most carries ever by one back in the Payton era. One more, look at these top 2 number of carries by year...
06 244 155
07 157 115
08 129 107
09 172 147
10 137 83
I think the top play caller in the NFL said "I'm tired of shuffling this deck. I wanna a certified full time NFL back and outdo the '09 formula." 1000-1263 yds on 250-300 carries will not only put Ingram up in the ROY vote it will go a long ways towards you looking at Indianapolis hotel rooms in February.
Here's what I was looking at...
Saints Rushing Yds Per Yr Since Payton
06 1761
07 1466
08 1594
09 2106
10 1519
What jumps out there? The championship season was 30%+ higher. I think Payton wants to run more. There has just been a deficit of talent though. 07, 08, & 10 were really making do, shuffling bodies around. Deuce still had gas in 06 but was on the downhill side.
So what might we expect this year? (still hoping against hope for football) I think Ingram will be a rock toter, a closer. Something like how Mike Bell did in 09 but on the level of carries like Deuce in 06. That would project like this...
2106 team yds like 09
Ingram at 1263 yds would equal Deuce's 06 60% of team yds.
That would leave 843 yds to spread around. PT could have 500-600 and if Reggie back 200-300. That's not even accounting for Ivory. We know the injury history of Reggie, PT, & Hamilton. Ivory looked good but his history is worse and lisfranc surgery is very serious. As of 03/28 he was just starting to put weight on it. Adding a workhorse was a good move. *PS, this one can block and catch too.
I've gone from not so revved and just trusting them to full fledged excited to what Ingram might mean to team success. I'm going as far to say we'll see the most carries ever by one back in the Payton era. One more, look at these top 2 number of carries by year...
06 244 155
07 157 115
08 129 107
09 172 147
10 137 83
I think the top play caller in the NFL said "I'm tired of shuffling this deck. I wanna a certified full time NFL back and outdo the '09 formula." 1000-1263 yds on 250-300 carries will not only put Ingram up in the ROY vote it will go a long ways towards you looking at Indianapolis hotel rooms in February.
This post was edited on 5/23/11 at 10:12 am
5
Posted on 5/23/11 at 9:53 am to blueslover
quote:
Saints Rushing Yds Per Yr Since Payton
06 1761
07 1466
08 1594
09 2106
10 1519
What jumps out there?
That's mind bottling.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 10:06 am to blueslover
quote:
09 2106
Running the ball was obviously the major difference in 09'. Brees threw for a million yards in 08' and we missed the damn playoffs.
quote:
I wanna a certified full time NFL back and outdo the '10 formula."
That's why I was so excited to get Ingram. I was tired of us using a round-robin of no-names to get by. But everyone's like Oh nooo but we can't use UDFA's and be fine. Yeah that worked out when PT, Mike Bell, and Bush all stayed healthy. But last year proved how unreliable our stable was.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 10:32 am to Brettesaurus Rex
2006 and 2009 playing with leads most of the time.
Other years, playing catch up.
Other years, playing catch up.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 10:41 am to blueslover
In 2007, 2008, and 2010, we didn't put a lot of teams away. Heck, we lost a lot of games in 2007 and 2008. When you have the lead, you run the ball more in order to preserve that lead.
Granted, having more balance on offense allows for us to build the lead, but just looking at yardage stats alone doesn't tell the whole story.
Granted, having more balance on offense allows for us to build the lead, but just looking at yardage stats alone doesn't tell the whole story.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 10:43 am to Sophandros
quote:
In 2007, 2008, and 2010, we didn't put a lot of teams away. Heck, we lost a lot of games in 2007 and 2008. When you have the lead, you run the ball more in order to preserve that lead.
Granted, having more balance on offense allows for us to build the lead, but just looking at yardage stats alone doesn't tell the whole story.
True
But I'd say that in 2009 we would run the ball well enough to open up the pass more, then close the game by running. Brees had phenomenal numbers because the pressure wasn't solely on him to win the game. With even a semblance of a running game, we'll see 2009 numbers from Breesus again. Don't even need top 5 or top 10 rushing, even an average ground game would make a world of difference.
This post was edited on 5/23/11 at 10:44 am
Posted on 5/23/11 at 10:55 am to Hulkklogan
quote:
Don't even need top 5 or top 10 rushing, even an average ground game would make a world of difference.
Yep. And it's effective running, which doesn't necessarily have to equal more running yards, that matter.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 11:04 am to Sophandros
quote:
Yep. And it's effective running, which doesn't necessarily have to equal more running yards, that matter.
IMO, its all about the threat. Last season, who was the RB threat? Ivory when he was in...but PT missed a big portion of last season and Reggie is not a RB threat. Ingram w/ healthy Ivory/PT gives a huge threat to run. The running game has to be accounted for now. I think it makes a big difference.
This post was edited on 5/23/11 at 11:04 am
Posted on 5/23/11 at 11:22 am to NS Who Dat Nation
quote:
That's mind bottling.
lolwut?
Posted on 5/23/11 at 11:37 am to LSUdm21
quote:
That's mind bottling.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 11:43 am to LSUdm21
It is said two ways. Boggling or Bottling. To each there own.
Ingram was a " win now" addition. He will be the closer this offense needs.
Ingram was a " win now" addition. He will be the closer this offense needs.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 11:44 am to LSUdm21
That was not a typo, but was a well placed movie quote.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 11:47 am to NS Who Dat Nation
Go frick yourself, San Diego
This post was edited on 5/23/11 at 11:48 am
Posted on 5/23/11 at 2:42 pm to blueslover
quote:
I'll start off by saying I wasn't initially heads over heels dealing for Ingram. The more I've looked at it though the more I like it.
Same here. I think the big thing for me is that we also didn't use our only 1st round pick on Ingram, we also got a defensive player we needed. Jordan is the cake and Ingram is the icing IMO.
I'm interested to see how Payton will use Ingram and Brees together. Lot of over the top passing plays off of play action I'm guessing. Should help Devery and Meachem get more looks as well.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 4:17 pm to Suntiger
Having Ingram is one thing... using him is another.
With Drew, we'll always throw more than run, and im cool with that, but Id like to see a shade more balance in the playcalling, and perhaps thats why he was drafted.
Im sure that will irritate a lot of you, seemingly questioning our SB winning coach... but i admit i scratch my head when we seem to give up on the run for stretches at a time, or not really commit to it at all in a game.
With Drew, we'll always throw more than run, and im cool with that, but Id like to see a shade more balance in the playcalling, and perhaps thats why he was drafted.
Im sure that will irritate a lot of you, seemingly questioning our SB winning coach... but i admit i scratch my head when we seem to give up on the run for stretches at a time, or not really commit to it at all in a game.
This post was edited on 5/23/11 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 5/23/11 at 4:31 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
quote:
But last year proved how unreliable our stable was.
and how in ANY way shape or form does drafting a guy in the 1st round guarantee health?
We ran just fine at points last year but I think a lot of people fail to acknowledge that at large chunks last year our O line played like a bunch of pussies. The SF, AZ, Cleveland games were great examples of this.
This post was edited on 5/23/11 at 4:34 pm
Posted on 5/23/11 at 4:37 pm to St Augustine
Bottom line is if we throw early and often to score and then pound people like we did in much of early 09 our defense is good enough to close games out. I just hope we don't mix it up TOO much with PT, Reggie (if he's there), Ingram, and Ivory which I feel like we've had a tendency to do in the past. Running the ball will be just as contingent on our Oline getting their heads back out of their asses and getting hungry again as it will be adding a 1st round RB. I feel like PT and Ingram should be the guys throughout the game with Ivory coming in to close it down. Nobody wants to tackle that guy if he's fresh coming in late in the game.
This post was edited on 5/23/11 at 4:38 pm
Posted on 5/23/11 at 4:48 pm to St Augustine
quote:
with Ivory coming in to close it down. Nobody wants to tackle that guy if he's fresh coming in late in the game.
I was actually thinking about this. I wouln't mind them featuring Ivory or Ingram for games at a time letting each one get 15+ carries in alternate games to let them heal up and stay healthy.
ETA: How often do you think we see Ingram and Bush in the backfield at the same time? Didn't we end up doing that with Deuce and Bush?
This post was edited on 5/23/11 at 4:50 pm
Posted on 5/23/11 at 4:54 pm to Suntiger
quote:
ETA: How often do you think we see Ingram and Bush in the backfield at the same time? Didn't we end up doing that with Deuce and Bush?
I could definitely see us pairing up Ingram and PT and Ingram and Bush. All 3 can catch well. I like the idea of having another guy in there with PT on the screens.
Posted on 5/23/11 at 6:04 pm to St Augustine
quote:
guarantee health
There's never a guarantee of health, but Ingram was very reliable throughout his entire career at Bama. Ivory is never going to last more than 4-5 games as the featured back and PT always seems like he's gonna get nicked up throughout last season as well.
Not that there's a definite Ingram won't get injured, but like I said, he's very reliable and allows Ivory to be that relief wrecking ball.
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