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Message
Percentage chance that you give LSU to win in the Regular Season?
Posted on 6/26/10 at 5:35 pm
Posted on 6/26/10 at 5:35 pm
North Carolina 50%
@ Vanderbilt 85%
Miss. State 85%
West Virginia 75%
Tennessee 75%
@ Florida 30%
McNeese St. 99%
@ Auburn 50%
Alabama 40%
UL-Monroe 99%
Ole Miss 70%
@ Arkansas 40%
@ Vanderbilt 85%
Miss. State 85%
West Virginia 75%
Tennessee 75%
@ Florida 30%
McNeese St. 99%
@ Auburn 50%
Alabama 40%
UL-Monroe 99%
Ole Miss 70%
@ Arkansas 40%
26
Posted on 6/26/10 at 5:40 pm to Springlake Tiger
quote:
Tennessee 75%
Umm...you do realize that Dooley completely outcoached Miles last season at LA Tech, right??
I think you should bump that down to 50%, IMO.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 5:42 pm to Springlake Tiger
I would bump Auburn up to 60% and Arkansas up to 50%.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 5:59 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
I think you should bump that down to 50%, IMO.
Good God. This is why being an LSU fan sometimes haunts me.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:03 pm to Springlake Tiger
Ooo, fun:
North Carolina 75%
@ Vanderbilt 99%
Miss. State 95%
West Virginia 80%
Tennessee 75%
@ Florida 10%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 40%
Alabama 75%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 80%
@ Arkansas 50%
North Carolina 75%
@ Vanderbilt 99%
Miss. State 95%
West Virginia 80%
Tennessee 75%
@ Florida 10%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 40%
Alabama 75%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 80%
@ Arkansas 50%
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:03 pm to Springlake Tiger
so your saying there's a chance
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:04 pm to Springlake Tiger
Looks about right. I would probably lower West Virginia and Tennessee slightly, and Alabama a little more significantly.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:14 pm to Springlake Tiger
quote:
North Carolina 50%
Pretty close, but I'd say it's a little higher. Maybe 55%
quote:
@ Vanderbilt 85%
Agree with you there.
quote:
Miss. State 85%
Might go a little lower here. Maybe 80%
quote:
West Virginia 75%
Definitely lower here. I'd say 65%
quote:
Tennessee 75%
My guess would be about 60%
quote:
@ Florida 30%
No higher than 10%, if that.
quote:
McNeese St. 99%
Agreed, and only because nothing is 100% certain.
quote:
@ Auburn 50%
More like 40%
quote:
Alabama 40%
Ditto Florida. 10% or lower
quote:
UL-Monroe 99%
Agreed.
quote:
Ole Miss 70%
I think this should be lower. We collapse after the Alabama loss these days. Maybe after a couple of more years, when we accept our fate as non-contenders in the division, we'll be able to play at our normal level even after the annual beating. But for now, I give us about 50% chance in this game.
quote:
Arkansas 40%
They always seem more fired up for this game than we do. Since our season will likely be in bad shape by this time, while they will likely be hoping for a nice bowl and a good ranking, I think they'll want this one more than we do. Plus, they're better than we are to begin with. I rate our chances in this one at maybe 25%.
Adding them all up:
.55 + .85 + .80 + .65 + .60 + .10 + .99 + .40 + .10 + .99 + .50 + .25 = 6.78 wins in the regular season
So, we fall between 7-5 and 6-6, with 7-5 being about three times as likely as 6-6. Sounds about right to me.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:22 pm to Nuts4LSU
so you have us starting 5-0 and finishing 6-6 or 7-5? wow, that would be a collapse.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:24 pm to Paul Allen
North Carolina 49%
@ Vanderbilt 65%
Miss. State 85%
West Virginia 65%
Tennessee 65%
@ Florida 45%
McNeese St. 99%
@ Auburn 45%
Alabama 70%
UL-Monroe 99%
Ole Miss 80%
@ Arkansas 45%
@ Vanderbilt 65%
Miss. State 85%
West Virginia 65%
Tennessee 65%
@ Florida 45%
McNeese St. 99%
@ Auburn 45%
Alabama 70%
UL-Monroe 99%
Ole Miss 80%
@ Arkansas 45%
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:40 pm to ottothewise
We have a 100% chance to win every game.... 
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:41 pm to ottothewise
Based off the Tennessee picks, some of you people could be the most pessimisic people I've ever seen. Tennessee is a home game and they have a lot of question marks. For one, they have no QB. Don't say that "neither do we" because we have Jefferson, who has proven to be a servicable SEC QB. UT has nothing as far as we know. They lost their top 2 RBs and their best defensive player in Eric Berry. Weak o-line also. This team won 6 games last year and has gotten worse. Dooley might be a good coach, he might not. But this will be a tough year for him. Tigers win big 31-7; 95% chance of winning.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:47 pm to south bama tiger
quote:
south bama tiger
I agree completely. We should handle Tennessee easily IMO.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 6:52 pm to luvmesumlsu
quote:
We have a 100% chance to win every game
I agree with this 100%. Giving up ANY percentage is like ecpecting to lose before the season starts.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:23 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
.55 + .85 + .80 + .65 + .60 + .10 + .99 + .40 + .10 + .99 + .50 + .25 = 6.78 wins in the regular season
So I guess starting this season, the NCAA is implemeting a process of awarding the BCS NC to the team with the greatest score differential? You're suggesting that based on a percentage, we get half a win over UNC?
If you count .50 or better as a win, YOU YOURSELF have put us at 8 wins Nuts... and you're being incredibly stingy with your odds in Auburn and Arkansas. My views on your insight to Alabama and Florida has already been noted.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:24 pm to Springlake Tiger
quote:
so you have us starting 5-0 and finishing 6-6 or 7-5? wow, that would be a collapse.
No, it's a question of probabilities. 10 games with an 80% chance in each game doesn't mean a prediction of 10-0, although each individual game is more likely to be a win than a loss. If a loss has a 20% chance of happening in each game, then about 2 out of 10 games will be a loss.
So, the fact that I have our chances of winning through the first five games at higher than 50% in each game does not mean I'm predicting a 5-0 start. However, I would not be surprised if we were 5-0 through the first five games.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:28 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
10 games with an 80% chance in each game doesn't mean a prediction of 10-0, although each individual game is more likely to be a win than a loss.
That's exactly what it means.
quote:
If a loss has a 20% chance of happening in each game, then about 2 out of 10 games will be a loss.
This only applies if we play the same team ten times.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:30 pm to chilge1
quote:
So I guess starting this season, the NCAA is implemeting a process of awarding the BCS NC to the team with the greatest score differential? You're suggesting that based on a percentage, we get half a win over UNC?
If you count .50 or better as a win, YOU YOURSELF have put us at 8 wins Nuts... and you're being incredibly stingy with your odds in Auburn and Arkansas. My views on your insight to Alabama and Florida has already been noted.
Chilgel, it's usually best not to get into a discussion of what you don't understand.
If we have a 60% chance of beating someone, then we will probably only beat them six out of ten times. The game when we actually play them could be one of those four times we don't win. So, when calculating the total number of predicted wins, you add your probabilities up for each game to get the total.
quote:
if you count .50 or better as a win,
I don't. I count it as a 50% chance or better of a win. A batter hits .350, so each at bat he is only 35% likely to get a hit. So, in 100 at bats, he probably gets about 35 hits. But if you counted each at bat, with a 65% chance of not getting a hit, as not getting a hit, you would predict zero hits in 100, or even a million at bats. That's the flaw in your argument.
This post was edited on 6/26/10 at 7:33 pm
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:33 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
A batter hits .350, so each at bat he is only 35% likely to get a hit. So, in 100 at bats, he probably gets 35 hits. But if you counted each 65% chance of not getting a hit as not getting a hit, you would predict zero hits in 100, or even a million at bats. That's the flaw in your argument.
I can see where you're coming from, but the flaw in your argument is that we don't play any team on the schedule more than once. In your baseball analogy, if you have to predict if a batter that bats .350 will hit a single pitch thrown at him, I, and most, would predict that he would not hit the ball.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:34 pm to chilge1
quote:
This only applies if we play the same team ten times.
No, it's the same principle no matter whether it's a different team every time. Each 80% chance is only that, a chance. Eight times out of ten it will happen, but twice it won't. Which two times is not predictable, but over 10, or 100 or a million games, probably about 20% of them will be losses.
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