Computer Model Showing Oil Spill Getting to Atlantic Ocean

They are about as good at predicting where this oil will go as they are about predicting where hurricanes will go.


In other words they don't really know.

I know a lot of PhD scientists probably spent a lot of time deriving this model, but there are so many variables such as:

1) gulf currents including the gulf stream
2) three dimensional bottom of the gulf due to the continental shelf and deep water gulf
3) dispersant used; droplet size of the oil
4) oil that never sees dispersant and floats to the top
5) winds
6) tropical storms / hurricanes that pass through the gulf in the next couple of months
7) gulf water temperatures
8) evaporation of water / hydrocarbons
9) thermodynamics of the gulf
10) leak rate of a two - phase flow of oil / gas which is still estimated
11) what else did I forget???

It is also not a steady state process since much of the oil was released weeks ago. Differential equations and all of that advanced mathematics comes into play with a dynamic model.

The more I look at the model the more it looks most influenced by the gulf stream. If you look at google earth one notices that the Macondo prospect (site of the Deep Water Horizon) is on the edge of the continental shelf. Has to make you wonder if the use of dispersant is to hopefully keep the oil floating down to the depths of the gulf instead of rising to the top of the continental shelf which borders all of La, Ms, Al, and Fl.

In due respect of these peoples' research though, there will be much learned about how the effects of this oil spill in real world compares to the model so that the model can be improved in the future for other events (although I hope that never happens again).

All of that doesn't change the disaster we are currently experiencing which has affected so many lives and our way of living on the gulf coast. But we have to start somewhere... 1st with understanding what really happened to lead to the sequence of events on that terrible day which was ironically the day before the 40th anniversary of Earth Day and 2nd with using science and mathematics to better predict response in the future.

And with those thoughts, I believe Einstein said it best with his quote, "No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong."

- Albert Einstein

good night good people; let's hope they make some progress on this thing tomorrow.

I do not believe this was a scientific model. More or less a schematic to show how the oil might disperse.

However, it should be noted that the contental shelf supports a large fishery of tuna, billfish, and other. It has been reported that tuna may be knocked back a decade or more as a result of this. Tuna spawning grounds are on the shelf off the Mississippi River. The larvae will float up get caught in the oil and die.