This Week

As gigantic as this game is against Florida, you almost get the feeling that this game is only an exhibition in terms of the BCS. The loser still controls its own destiny in the SEC and chances are that the loser gets in the BCS NC if they win out. There are certainly a few undefeated BCS teams out there (e.g. Texas, Iowa, Wisconsin) that could run the table. It is not entirely clear yet how undefeated Cinci or even Boise would stack up and even 1-loss Va Tech and USC would have an argument. But in the end the SEC is sitting awfully pretty yet again and if out Tigers don’t pull it out this week, we should like our chances if they can win out.

BCS Overview

Chicken has requested a blog to we keep all the BCS discussion in, so I will try to make a weekly post to get the discussion started. As long as the Tigers have a shot at a BCS bowl, I will keep it on the rant. In the unlikely scenario LSU isn’t a top 10 team this year, I may move to the MSB. This year the BCS is released Oct 18 I believe, but that doesn’t mean we can’t start talking about it now. Last week I posted a description of how computer polls work and some specific info regarding the six used by the BCS. This week, I included an overview of how the BCS works in general and where some teams/conferences stand.

Just a refresher, the BCS is 1/3 Coaches Poll, 1/3 Harris Poll, and 1/3 average of the 6 computers (with the high and low thrown out). The calculation is actually based on votes in the polls. Consider an example: last year Florida had 2776 Harris votes out of a possible 2825 (113 voters x 25 positions) which is 0.983. Likewise they had 1481 points out of a possible 1525 in the Coaches, which is 0.971. Finally, their computer average (after dropping the high and low) was 2.75 and (25-2.75)/2.75 is 0.890. So Florida’s average is (0.983+0.971+0.890)/3=0.948; right above Texas and right behind OU.

Misconceptions about the BCS

1. You must win your conference to play for the NCS NC. Of course OU played for it in 2003, but no, they did not change the rules after to exclude a team that loses its conference. However, the human voters have so much power now (and voters try to avoid non-champs in the title game), it would be hard for them to make it unless they really were head and shoulders above everyone else.

2. There is a direct strength of schedule (SOS) component included in the BCS formula. Before 2004 a simple SOS calculation, along with a Quality Win component was included. Both were nixed in the formula we have used for the last 5 years. SOS is used indirectly in the computers to sort teams of like record…and supposedly in the human polls as well.

3. The SOS formulas used by the computers are over-simplified. Some people think that rankings from the human polls are used. Others think that it is just your opponents winning percentage. Many others believe the old BCS formula is used and beating a 10-0 team and 0-10 team is the same as beating two 5-5 teams. This simply isn’t true. Each computer uses its own measure of SOS, which is a function of its own rating, and most measures of SOS are complicated; weighting the top of your schedule much more heavily.

4. Since the BCS is 2/3 human polls, if you are ahead in both, the computers don’t matter. Not true at all. For one, its votes not ranking. So team A can be ranked 2nd but only be a few votes ahead of Team B. Also, if there are teams “wedged” between teams B and A in the computers…team B can easily be ahead in the BCS.

Where some teams/conferences stand

SEC teams (LSU, Florida, Bama, AU, Miss). The SEC is an amazing 25-3 in OOC games and once again has seemingly distanced itself from other conferences, and should be rewarded heavily in the computers as a result of the tougher schedule (note: the SEC still has 20 OOC games to play though). No undefeated SEC team could realistically get left out this year (ala 2004). A 1-loss SEC team is in very good position for a NC; especially a team like LSU or Bama who play in the super tough SEC West and play good or decent OOC schedules. And if the 1-loss team redeems itself by beating that team in the SECCG, it could be a done deal.

PAC 10 teams (USC, Oregon). The Pac10 is strong this year as (unlike last year) they have mostly taken care of business in OOC games. The Pac10 is the 2nd strongest conference. Last year, I was quick to write off USC after the OSU loss. But with the Pac10 looking strong, I think both USC and Oregon will do well in the computers. A 1-loss SEC team probably still has the edge on them on the computers, but since they lost earlier, they could have the edge in the polls.

BIG 12 (Texas). The Big12 has done a 180 from last year and their OOC performance has been mediocre…at best. Couple that with Texas’ extra weak OOC schedule, and Texas won’t do well in the computers. However, voters will likely give them the benefit of the doubt as long as they stay undefeated, but a 1-loss Texas probably doesn’t fair well against most other 1-loss BCS schools.

BIG 10 (PSU, OSU, Wisc?). The Big10 is better than most give credit for, but it isn’t good enough to make up for PSU’s weak OOC schedule if they finish with 1-loss. Ohio State lost early and it was to USC, but they play no CG and it would be tough to put them above any SEC, Pac10, or Va Tech/Miami. A 1-loss Big10 school would need lots of help for sure.

ACC (Va Tech, Miami). The ACC has been pretty abysmal on the whole and it won’t help Va Tech or Miami’s SOS at all. But both teams played very tough OOC schedules and lost early. If it came down to them, USC and a 1-loss LSU it would be interesting.

Big East (Cincinnati). A very interesting case. The Big East is arguably the 3rd best conference right now and have a solid OOC record to show for it. Moreover Cinci plays two BCS schools (Oregon State and Illinois) and a decent Fresno team OOC. I think if Cinci runs the table, they will be okay (but not great) in the computers. But may not have a single ranked team on their schedule (except maybe USF) and I have a feeling they get treated like a mid-major by the voters. It is too tough to say right now how they will shape up against the 1-loss powerhouses.

Boise, and TCU. After weeks 1 and 2 it looked to be the year of the mid-major. But the MWC missed golden opportunities with Utah and BYU losing. That leaves TCU with nothing real strong on their schedule. Boise had Oregon and nobody left. But if Oregon runs the table, they become a NC contender themselves. An undefeated Boise is easily over Oregon.

**When I find time, we can run “future” simulations to figure out where these teams really may shake out in the computers at the end of the season.

Thoughts?