re: My take on LSU FB 2009

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Miles quoted as saying "no situational substitutions"

and he went on to say...
"We tried to match up personnel last year," said Miles. In several games, the offense substituted so late, it was hard for us to match up. We're going to keep the same guys on the field this year."

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So Loston doesn't ever get to play other than special teams? What a waste of a year....

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UGA(A) - 65% (gave us a few more points given UGA has a pretty tough schedule leading up.)

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I find it hard to push us that high against UGA on the road.

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UF(H) - 25% (too much experience and too good top to bottom)

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LSU at Tiger Stadium against anyone should be at least 35%

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Bama(A) - 35% (kills me to think this way, but I'm expecting Bama to be better by the end of the year, and they have a bi-week to plan for the game)

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I think you are over-rating Bama significantly. I think this will be a defensive slugfest. That will make it close, and push it closer to 50-50.

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Ole Miss(A) - 30% (playing at OM, although it depends on the direction our respective seasons take. Hoping that we get better and better as they get worse and worse, especially when reality sets in that they aren't the best team in the country).

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I don't think they are quite as good as the hype, and I think they are lacking in depth (which should weaken them by the end of the season).

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UF(H) - 25% (too much experience and too good top to bottom)




LSU at Tiger Stadium against anyone should be at least 35%

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QUE last year??? They should have lost to Troy!!!!!! I say its 15% chance they beat FLA!!!!

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And yeah, they sucked hard for the first 3 quarters, but they still won the game.

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Shouldn't they have been up by 30, instead of down by 30???? THEY SUCKED THAT GAME!!! I will tell you why later HOMER>


[quote]Nonetheless, if you think this years LSU team isn't leaps and bounds better than what we saw in the first half of the Troy game last year, then your head is squarely lodged in your rectum.


What happened in the UGA and BAMA games????

Apparently you missed the most important part of my response...

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Now, stop flaming.

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LSU NEEDS to be MORE disciplined then they were last year. Its something that SHOULD bother EVERY LSU fan!!!!

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Yes, LSU needs to be more disciplined (especially on D), and they will. They new defensive coaches should see to that. It did bother us last year, but it won't this year.

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I speak the truth.

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You don't speak the truth. You are trying to say that last year was the norm as opposed to an aberration. It is fairly obvious that it was an aberration, which is why we will be starting the season ranked relatively highly.

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Its not MY fault YOU CAN'T handle it!!!

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It's not that I can't handle it. It's that I disagree with your opinions, as do the majority of experts around the country (and to pretty much anyone that actually watched what happened last year).

...At any rate, I have better things to do with my time than respond to you further. Have a nice day.

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Here's my way of looking at it. Here is our schedule with an estimate of the chance to beat each team. You can argue that some are high and some are low, but one or two games being off by 10% will have a minimal effect on the end results...

UW(A) - 85%
Vandy(H) - 85%
ULL(H) - 95%
MSU(A) - 90%
UGA(A) - 55%
UF(H) - 40%
AU(H) - 80%
Tulane(H) - 95%
Bama(A) - 50%
La Tech (H) - 95%
Ole Miss(A) - 50%
Arkansas(H) - 70%

The expected outcome from this is 8.90 wins, making the most likely outcome a 9-3 season.

We have a 1.7% chance of going undefeated.
We have a 9.6% chance of having 1 loss.

So assuming that 1 or no losses in the regular season plus a SECCG win (call it 50-50) gets us in the national championship game, I give us 1 shot in 20 of making it there (5.65%). That's not bad.

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I disagree with some of the figures slightly, but overall, I agree. I do not say this very often on the Rant, but....very good post. That's a pretty fair way to look at it with the outcome, 9-3, that is most likely.

quote:

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Miles quoted as saying "no situational substitutions"

and he went on to say...
"We tried to match up personnel last year," said Miles. In several games, the offense substituted so late, it was hard for us to match up. We're going to keep the same guys on the field this year

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Yes, that means when Joe Superhero WR or King Kong comes in at DT, they will not switch out of the base Defense or Offense.

Does that mean no substitutions? NO