Companies still better off with global 15% tariff than pre scotus tariffs, per analysis

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We estimate the Section 122 tariffs apply to $1.2 trillion worth of annual imports (34% of goods imports).

If temporarily in effect for 150 days at 15%, we estimate they raise $43 billion in direct tariff payments ($33 billion net revenue). That compares to $33 billion in direct payments ($25 billion net revenue) at 10%.

In combination with the President's other new tariffs, the average burden per US household will be $700 in 2026. About $250 of that comes from the temporary 15% Section 122 tariffs.

The applied tariff rate:
Pre-SCOTUS with IEEPA = 13.8%
With 10% Sec 122 in effect = 10.3%
With 15% Sec 122 in effect = 12.1%
After Sec 122 expires = 6.7%

The effective tariff rate for 2026:
Pre-SCOTUS with IEEPA = ~10%
With 150 days of 10% Sec 122 = 5.6%
With 150 days of 15% Sec 122 = 6.0%

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