USA Expected to Produce Almost 1/4 of Global Oil Output in 2026

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The U.S. is projected to produce almost a quarter of the world’s petroleum and other liquid fuels output in 2026 in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook.

According to the EIA’s January STEO, which was published last month, the EIA sees U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production averaging 23.88 million barrels per day in 2026. The EIA forecasts in the STEO that global production this year will come in at 107.65 million barrels per day, putting the U.S. contribution at 22.18 percent of the overall figure.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO outlined that the EIA sees U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production making up 22.18 percent of the world’s total petroleum and liquid fuels production in the first quarter of this year, 22.25 percent in the second quarter, 22.15 percent in the third quarter, and 22.14 percent in the fourth quarter.

The U.S. share of global petroleum and other liquid fuels production is projected to drop to 21.84 percent in 2027 in the EIA’s latest STEO, which forecasts that U.S. output will average 23.63 million barrels per day and that global production will average 108.18 million barrels per day.

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OPEC+ is projected to contribute 44.93 million barrels per day, or 41.73 percent, to the 2026 total, and 45.07 million barrels per day, or 41.66 percent, to the 2027 total, the EIA pointed out in its STEO. OPEC+ contributed 43.80 million barrels per day, or 41.21 percent, to the 2025 total, the STEO showed.

Non-OPEC+ production, excluding the U.S., is projected to make up 38.84 million barrels per day, or 36.07 percent, of this year’s total petroleum and other liquid fuels production, and 39.47 million barrels per day, or 36.48 percent, of next year’s total, the STEO revealed.

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