ADBE a buy-low candidate?

I added ADBE recently. I think the AI disruption fear is way overblown, especially for a mature company with such a strong balance sheet. They’re buying back a ton of shares at 5 year lows too. This stock’s rebound just feels ripe.

I’m a customer but not a buyer. Adobe’s growth has always been the result of purchasing competitors and monopolizing the creatives market. That spigot closed after figma.

The more pressing issue is the tools on an iPhone are now easier to use, free, and more than adequate for most.

That’s a tough market to grow when you operate the most expensive subscription plans on the market. Not to mention decades of ill will from their user base that only EA could rival.

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I'll stay away. I'm afraid their greedy subscription model is on thin ice now. I quit them as a customer two years ago. Thought I couldn't do without. Wrong.

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Agree so many tools that can do what their subscription service does these days.

Nah

This is one of the software areas most ripe to be replaced by AI. There are better opportunities

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Fair points as a user. In my research I think they’re considering moving from a subscription based pricing model to an outcome based pricing model.

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I find that hard to believe. CS4 was like $1500 a license before they went to a subscription, and that was 20 years ago.

Honestly, they’ve managed the subscription model far better than anyone expected. Nonetheless, I doubt there’s a large market waiting for Adobe to change from $70/mo to a $5000 license.

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This is one of the software areas most ripe to be replaced by AI

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What’s overlooked is their market is professionals. Most commercial outlets prohibit AI manipulation.

Getty constantly flags submissions for AI manipulation and they routinely send reminders that such submissions can result in contract cancellations.

Given their access to subscribers content, AI development is a no brainer. How they monetize that effort remains to be seen.

Unfortunately nothing as robust. I’ve just dialed back my expectations and needs.

I've never liked the company, their business practices and only use their products reluctantly when there is no other alternative. Their products, when I'm forced to use them, are inconvenient and have many of the characteristics of malware.