Thomas Sowell explains why Republicans will dominate mid-terms

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The video discusses how recent developments materially alter the assumptions surrounding the 2026 midterms, challenging the prevailing narrative of Democratic momentum (0:03).

Key Points:

RMG Research Poll: A new generic congressional ballot poll from RMG Research, noted for its accuracy in the 2024 cycle, shows Republicans leading Democrats by four points (45% to 41%), with the margin remaining unchanged even when leaning voters are included (48% to 44%) (0:32-0:59).
Presidential Approval: The latest Harvard Harris poll indicates Donald Trump's approval at 48%, a significant increase from last month. Historically, presidential approval ratings are reliable indicators for midterm outcomes, with presidents near 50% facing more limited losses (1:30-2:02).
Path to Holding the House: The RMG numbers suggest a realistic path for Republicans to hold the House in 2026, resting on two main factors: redistricting and registration (2:04-2:18).

Structural Changes Favoring Republicans:

Redistricting: Ongoing redistricting battles are breaking decisively in Republicans' favor. Several states are positioned to add new Republican seats:
Texas: 5 seats (2:57)
North Carolina: 1 seat (3:03)
Missouri: 1 seat (3:04)
Indiana: 2 seats (3:09)
Ohio: 2 seats (3:16)
Florida: 3-5 seats (3:19)
These changes could result in 13 new solid Republican seats, potentially giving them a baseline of 213 seats and requiring only five additional seats for a House majority (3:30-4:12). If current maps remain intact, Republicans could secure control of the House before competitive races are decided (4:33-4:45).
Voter Registration Trends: Data from Seth Keshel, known for his precise forecasts, shows that Democrats have been steadily losing registered voters since 2020 in the 30 states that track party registration (6:28-7:05).
Pennsylvania: The Democratic voter registration advantage in Pennsylvania has declined by over 40% since November 2024, with bellwether counties like Erie and Northampton shifting red (7:09-8:38). This trend implies that Pennsylvania may no longer be a viable path for Democrats to win the presidency (8:42-8:57).
North Carolina: Republicans are fewer than 2,000 registrations away from becoming the majority party statewide, an unprecedented development driven by new voters registering directly as Republicans (9:05-9:53).
Arizona and Colorado: Democrats are losing significantly more registrants than Republicans in Arizona, while Colorado, a reliably Democratic state, has seen Republicans gain roughly 6,000 registered voters (9:57-10:29).
Florida: Florida added about 5,000 Republican registrations while shedding approximately 5,000 Democrats, a net gain of 10,000 for the GOP (10:32-10:42).

The video concludes by stating that while midterm elections are influenced by various factors like turnout, candidate quality, and funding (10:46-11:04), the direction of redistricting and voter registration provides Republicans with significant advantages that are already being reflected (11:08-11:31). This suggests a potential for a result in 2026 that could reshape the political landscape (11:35-11:46).

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