Reuters Piece on US/Venezuela: What could Maduro offer Trump in potential talks? Oil

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HOUSTON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has the flexibility and the incentive to offer crude oil cargoes, which the country mostly sells to China, as a bargaining chip if Venezuela were to hold negotiations with the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, which has boosted its military presence in the Caribbean, has said he is open to talks with Maduro, whose government has struggled to lure foreign investment in the country's oilfields amid U.S. sanctions.

The U.S. on Monday formally designated Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles a foreign terrorist organization, increasing pressure on Maduro amid preparations to launch further operations in the coming days, according to sources.

OPEC member Venezuela's oil production has stabilized around 1.1 million barrels per day this year, less than a third of its all-time high in the late 1990s. More than 80% of exports were shipped to China between June and October, according to shipping data.

Those cargoes, alongside possible operating licenses for U.S. companies, could be Maduro's best leverage in any talks, analysts say.

"Sending more oil to the U.S. and protecting U.S. investment in Venezuela is something Maduro can easily offer," said energy analyst Thomas O'Donnell. However, the offer "might not be enough now that Washington has the upper hand," he said, referring to the oil market's current stability and low prices.

Venezuela's Oil Minister Delcy Rodriguez said on Monday the U.S. has targeted Venezuela because of its vast crude reserves.

"They want Venezuela’s oil and gas reserves. For nothing, without paying," she said, having previously noted U.S. Gulf refiners' demand for Venezuela's heavy crude grades. The U.S. mainly produces light oil.

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Washington has for years blocked cash payments to PDVSA, but the oil company has vast experience with oil swaps that allow it to exchange its crude for much-needed fuel imports.

Venezuela's oil shipments to China have increased in the second half of 2025 to more than 80% of total exports, mainly due to U.S. policies preventing exports to other destinations, compared with 63% all of last year, according to LSEG tanker movement data and internal PDVSA documents seen by Reuters. That leaves room for diversifying the destination of exports.

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Despite having the world's largest crude reserves, Maduro's administration has failed to allocate Venezuela's oilfields to experienced energy firms in recent years under a contract model he proposed, attracting only small investors that are not significantly contributing to the nation's output.

Most Western energy firms are not willing to invest following expropriations of foreign oil assets under former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez and the U.S. sanctions that followed, or to inject the massive capital required to revive Venezuela's aging energy industry.

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