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If we just had last years offense this year - A thought experiment with stats
Posted on 10/9/25 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 10/9/25 at 1:05 pm
We returned our QB, most RBs, and most agree upgraded our WRs, but replaced the entire starting OL. Returned the same head coach and Year 1 coordinator. So with expecting to take a step forward in year 2 of this offense balanced with losing some OL, I don’t think it would’ve been crazy to at least hope to maintain a similar offensive output to last year.
With almost half the season over, it’s clear we haven’t. but if we did, our offense according to SP+ would be ranked #20 (36.8) rather than #41 (32.2). With our defense this year (#5, 12.4), we would be ranked as the 6th best team in the country (24.6) rather than down at #16 where we currently are. We’d be above Ole Miss and likely would’ve beaten them. Above every single SEC team except Oklahoma.
Not to mention if we had 2023’s offense, we’d be far and away the #1 ranked team in the country in SP+. Even if we had 2022’s offense, we’d be ranked #11. It’s infuriating to see in a year where a natural step forward should’ve happened, we’ve regressed to the worst Brian Kelly offense since he was at 2008 Cincinnati. I just cannot fathom why it’s so hard for him to put together the whole package here!!!
Our opponents for reference:
Rank Name SP+ OFF (RK) DEF (RK)
46. Clemson 8.8 29.7 (58) 20.7 (37)
31. Florida 13.1 29.6 (59) 16.6 (18)
70. LT 0.7 21.7 (104) 21.0 (40)
7. OM 23.4 39.3 (9) 16.2 (16)
NEXT:
41. SCar 10.4 27.9 (66) 17.6 (21)
22. Vandy 17.1 38.1 (15) 21.3 (41)
15. A&M 20.6 37.2 (17) 16.6 (17)
So even though we’ve only played top 40 defenses, we didn’t outscore the expected points against by much… and I don’t expect it will get any easier soon. If only we could’ve just maintained a decent level of offense with almost the same players and coaches from last year…
With almost half the season over, it’s clear we haven’t. but if we did, our offense according to SP+ would be ranked #20 (36.8) rather than #41 (32.2). With our defense this year (#5, 12.4), we would be ranked as the 6th best team in the country (24.6) rather than down at #16 where we currently are. We’d be above Ole Miss and likely would’ve beaten them. Above every single SEC team except Oklahoma.
Not to mention if we had 2023’s offense, we’d be far and away the #1 ranked team in the country in SP+. Even if we had 2022’s offense, we’d be ranked #11. It’s infuriating to see in a year where a natural step forward should’ve happened, we’ve regressed to the worst Brian Kelly offense since he was at 2008 Cincinnati. I just cannot fathom why it’s so hard for him to put together the whole package here!!!
Our opponents for reference:
Rank Name SP+ OFF (RK) DEF (RK)
46. Clemson 8.8 29.7 (58) 20.7 (37)
31. Florida 13.1 29.6 (59) 16.6 (18)
70. LT 0.7 21.7 (104) 21.0 (40)
7. OM 23.4 39.3 (9) 16.2 (16)
NEXT:
41. SCar 10.4 27.9 (66) 17.6 (21)
22. Vandy 17.1 38.1 (15) 21.3 (41)
15. A&M 20.6 37.2 (17) 16.6 (17)
So even though we’ve only played top 40 defenses, we didn’t outscore the expected points against by much… and I don’t expect it will get any easier soon. If only we could’ve just maintained a decent level of offense with almost the same players and coaches from last year…
This post was edited on 10/9/25 at 3:35 pm
2
Posted on 10/9/25 at 1:23 pm to hsgeoboy
We're 5 games into the season. Can we just let the season play out and see where we end up? Could be good or it could be bad but I am looking forward to seeing our team play Saturday after the bye week.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 1:54 pm to IM_4_LSU
quote:
We're 5 games into the season. Can we just let the season play out and see where we end up?
Posted on 10/9/25 at 2:07 pm to hsgeoboy
Do me a favor.
Take all of these stats and then add the one thing you didn't take into account.
Nuss stats from 2024, to now.
Bet you'll be surprised at what you find. Here is a hint. Nuss is a 59% completion against SEC teams with 15 TDs, and 10 Ints. Thats HORRENDOUS, especially as a 5th year QB.
Take all of these stats and then add the one thing you didn't take into account.
Nuss stats from 2024, to now.
Bet you'll be surprised at what you find. Here is a hint. Nuss is a 59% completion against SEC teams with 15 TDs, and 10 Ints. Thats HORRENDOUS, especially as a 5th year QB.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 3:33 pm to BadatBourre
And? I’m not here to say whether Nuss is good or bad. Just that our offense was definitely better last year with almost the same personnel. With that same Nuss we were able to move the ball and score against SEC opponents to at least a decent degree (maybe with exceptions of Alabama and Florida games). The bigger issues in our SEC losses was our defense which is much improved last year. I just wish the offense would’ve stayed just as good.
This post was edited on 10/9/25 at 3:34 pm
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