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In 2025, for the first time ever, the U.S. population could shrink

Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:51 pm
Posted by Wally Sparks
Atlanta
Member since Feb 2013
32419 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:51 pm
LINK

quote:

The United States is on the precipice of a historic, if dubious, achievement. If current trends hold, 2025 could be the first year on record in which the US population actually shrinks.

The math is straightforward. Population growth has two sources: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net immigration (arrivals minus departures). Last year, births outnumbered deaths by 519,000 people. That means any decline in net immigration in excess of half a million could push the U.S. into population decline. A recent analysis of Census data by the Pew Research Center found that between January and June, the US foreign-born population fell for the first time in decades by more than one million. While some economists have questioned the report, a separate analysis by the American Enterprise Institute predicted that net migration in 2025 could be as low as negative 525,000. In either case, annual population growth this year could easily turn negative.


Posted by Huey Lewis
BR
Member since Oct 2013
5052 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:52 pm to
Good
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
112284 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:52 pm to
Needs to be about 25 million fewer
Posted by mwlewis
JeffCo
Member since Nov 2010
21719 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:53 pm to
Posted by BigTigerJoe
Member since Aug 2022
11194 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

Needs to be about 25 million fewer

Healing with a new census too.
Posted by Purple Spoon
Hoth
Member since Feb 2005
20180 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:53 pm to
This post was edited on 9/3/25 at 1:54 pm
Posted by AmosMosesAndTwins
Lake Charles
Member since Apr 2010
19013 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:54 pm to
The water was cold.
Posted by I20goon
about 7mi down a dirt road
Member since Aug 2013
19014 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:54 pm to
abortion and illegals?
Posted by HeadCall
Member since Feb 2025
5715 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:55 pm to
325 million is enough in my book. We'll just have to figure out how to deal with the economic ramifications of population stagnation.

It also may be time to look at outlawing birth control.
Posted by dstone12
Texan
Member since Jan 2007
38462 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 1:56 pm to
Now,
Stop building all these apartment complexes in the south.
Posted by aubie101
Russia
Member since Nov 2010
3584 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:01 pm to
And Arizona
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
295188 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:02 pm to
quote:


Stop building all these apartment complexes in the south.


Why?
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100272 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:03 pm to
Between deportations, low birth rates and Boomers starting to die off rapidly we could see net population reductions in the millions in the next decade.

It will have devastating effects on the economy unfortunately as products become less in demand and labor becomes scarce.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:05 pm to
quote:


Good


This.

But Wall Street panics over this.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
21768 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

Between deportations, low birth rates and Boomers starting to die off rapidly we could see net population reductions in the millions in the next decade.

Sounds like a lot of nice houses about to become cheaper.
Posted by GoblinGuide
Member since Nov 2017
2003 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

It also may be time to look at outlawing birth control.


Nothing screams land of the free more.
Posted by HeadCall
Member since Feb 2025
5715 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

Nothing screams land of the free more.


Women having total agency over their own reproductive systems has not been good for society in a myriad of ways, not least of which is population decline specifically among their more successful demographics.
Posted by GoblinGuide
Member since Nov 2017
2003 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

This.

But Wall Street panics over this.


Probably because consumerism is about to take a giant shite over the course of the next 30 or 40 years as corporations have to adjust to earnings not being higher every single year.
Posted by cornerstore
Member since Jul 2024
1679 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:18 pm to
Explain to me again why this would be considered bad?
Posted by GoblinGuide
Member since Nov 2017
2003 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 2:19 pm to
quote:

Explain to me again why this would be considered bad?


Long term it's honestly great for everyone involved. The transition in the short term will be probably be ugly.
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