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Ollie Garden: Unlimited Yardage & Never Ending Touchdowns
Posted on 8/26/25 at 11:32 pm
Posted on 8/26/25 at 11:32 pm
So I was running around some stats & saw a pattern where tackle for loss seem to be a trending data point.
Dudes with a high TFL% were in the area of guys who are fading, busts, & homeless.
Guys with the most carries trend to be in the area of elites who have low TFL%.
I saw Wright & Achane were #1 & 3.
Further, in 3rd & short yardage, they were stuffed 46% of the time.
Worst in the NFL last year.
The value is in Ollie Gordon, grab him while you can: A Feast for the Eyes
Wright is not going to be available week one and Achane’s calf injury is lingering. Ollie will get the start and never look back.
Dudes with a high TFL% were in the area of guys who are fading, busts, & homeless.
Guys with the most carries trend to be in the area of elites who have low TFL%.
I saw Wright & Achane were #1 & 3.
Further, in 3rd & short yardage, they were stuffed 46% of the time.
Worst in the NFL last year.
The value is in Ollie Gordon, grab him while you can: A Feast for the Eyes
Wright is not going to be available week one and Achane’s calf injury is lingering. Ollie will get the start and never look back.
quote:
Ollie Gordon II, a standout running back from Oklahoma State, was projected as a first-round pick after a stellar 2023 season, where he won the Doak Walker Award, led the nation with 1,732 rushing yards, and earned unanimous All-American honors. His physicality, vision, and ability to thrive in gap and power schemes made him a highly touted prospect, with 2,920 career rushing yards and 37 touchdowns showcasing his potential as a three-down back. However, his 2024 season saw a significant drop in production, with only 880 yards at 4.6 yards per carry, largely due to a struggling offensive line, poor quarterback play, and defenses keying in on him. This regression raised concerns about his ability to create explosive plays without strong blocking, as he lacked elite lateral agility and struggled in pass protection, which limited his three-down potential early in his NFL career.Additionally, off-field issues and physical concerns contributed to his slide to the sixth round, where he was selected by the Miami Dolphins with the 179th pick. An arrest in June 2024 for suspicion of DUI, open container, and speeding raised red flags about his character and decision-making, potentially deterring teams.
5
Posted on 8/27/25 at 5:39 am to Kujo
I have Achane and am nervous. Problem is my bench is Ridley, Odunze, Reed, Sampson and yesterday I picked up Amari Cooper. Who do I drop for Gordon?
Posted on 8/27/25 at 6:58 am to Kujo
3 of the top 4 played for the same team, which may say more about the oline than the RBs.
I do, however, agree that Ollie has great potential but I don’t think it will hurt Achane.
I do, however, agree that Ollie has great potential but I don’t think it will hurt Achane.
Posted on 8/27/25 at 7:32 am to Kujo
quote:
This regression raised concerns about his ability to create explosive plays without strong blocking, as he lacked elite lateral agility and struggled in pass protection
Miami seems like just the place to fix this.
Posted on 8/27/25 at 8:40 am to lsushelly
Sampson or Cooper. I’d lean Cooper.
Posted on 8/27/25 at 9:28 am to Kujo
This is the kind of statistic that can get you in trouble.
Did anyone watch the Dolphins without Tua last year? Barry Sanders wasn't getting out of that backfield.
TFL isn't just an individual stat.
Did anyone watch the Dolphins without Tua last year? Barry Sanders wasn't getting out of that backfield.
TFL isn't just an individual stat.
Posted on 8/27/25 at 3:54 pm to msutiger
Tua missed 6 weeks
In 11 games with Tua, 6 of those Achane ran for less than 50 yards on a 2-3 ypc.
In the 6 games Tua missed, Achane put up 121 & 77 in two of those.
His high weeks correspond with long runs (61, 50, 47, 30) (except week 2 buffalo 17 with Tua)…implying his low YPC is only mitigated by a “splash” play those weeks.
While Ideal for fantasy, not for an NFL coach (“ok, get stuffed 10 times killing 4 drives, but as long as you get that 50 yard TD for my fantasy team every few weeks… you're still our starter!”)
Not looking at the receiving, just at the runs…mostly basic run game opportunities that an often injured Achane doesn’t perform well that will be Ollie’s.
That’s what I see happening.
In 11 games with Tua, 6 of those Achane ran for less than 50 yards on a 2-3 ypc.
In the 6 games Tua missed, Achane put up 121 & 77 in two of those.
His high weeks correspond with long runs (61, 50, 47, 30) (except week 2 buffalo 17 with Tua)…implying his low YPC is only mitigated by a “splash” play those weeks.
While Ideal for fantasy, not for an NFL coach (“ok, get stuffed 10 times killing 4 drives, but as long as you get that 50 yard TD for my fantasy team every few weeks… you're still our starter!”)
Not looking at the receiving, just at the runs…mostly basic run game opportunities that an often injured Achane doesn’t perform well that will be Ollie’s.
That’s what I see happening.
Posted on 8/27/25 at 5:27 pm to Kujo
You are equating Achane’s value to his success between the tackles. That isn’t why Achane is a borderline first round pick. It’s the explosive plays you are dismissing and his pass catching out of the backfield.
If you think a sixth round rookie running back has the same potential as what Achane has shown, you are setting yourself up for major disappointment.
Even if Ollie Gordon gets some of the short yardage work, you’ll be completely dependent on touchdowns. Achane is the explosive back who will get all of the pass catching work.
This is one of those situations where even if Achane goes down, Ollie Gordon isn’t becoming Devon Achane.
If you think a sixth round rookie running back has the same potential as what Achane has shown, you are setting yourself up for major disappointment.
Even if Ollie Gordon gets some of the short yardage work, you’ll be completely dependent on touchdowns. Achane is the explosive back who will get all of the pass catching work.
This is one of those situations where even if Achane goes down, Ollie Gordon isn’t becoming Devon Achane.
Posted on 8/27/25 at 7:25 pm to msutiger
Deuce/Reggie (250/100 rush split)
I’d say Gibbs Montgomery but Gibbs isn’t a “thin” running back who dances.
Of course Achane will be involved, when not injured, but his usage on the bulk of rushing plays will decline. He’ll get moved around as gadget players tend to do.
I’d say Gibbs Montgomery but Gibbs isn’t a “thin” running back who dances.
Of course Achane will be involved, when not injured, but his usage on the bulk of rushing plays will decline. He’ll get moved around as gadget players tend to do.
Posted on 8/28/25 at 9:47 am to Kujo
quote:
Deuce/Reggie (250/100 rush split)
I’d say Gibbs Montgomery but Gibbs isn’t a “thin” running back who dances.
Of course Achane will be involved, when not injured, but his usage on the bulk of rushing plays will decline. He’ll get moved around as gadget players tend to do.
But none of this screams Ollie Gordon is going to be an RB1 or RB2. Even in your perfect scenario, hes a poor mans Mostert who's 2023 touchdown rate was as unsustainable as Achane's YPC that year.
It's the same reason Im not high on Jordan Mason. The bruising running backs aren't going to win you your league. If Aaron Jones goes down, Jordan Mason doesn't suddenly become a high volume pass catcher. Same thing with a Braelon Allen situation.
This also isn't considering that the Dolphins seem to like Jaylen Wright even if the fantasy community doesn't.
Tyreek is an aging wide receiver who will be completely irrelevant a year from now. His opinion on the running back room matters about as much as mine
Posted on 8/28/25 at 10:19 am to msutiger
Wright is out the first 3 weeks at least, surgery.
“ Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright had a "small procedure" done that isn't season-ending but will take some time to recover from, per McDaniel
“Miami has signed RBs Jeff Wilson and JaMycal Hasty in response”
They signed two running backs.
Signing TWO ….Ollie, Wilson, Hasty week 1
“ Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright had a "small procedure" done that isn't season-ending but will take some time to recover from, per McDaniel
“Miami has signed RBs Jeff Wilson and JaMycal Hasty in response”
They signed two running backs.
Signing TWO ….Ollie, Wilson, Hasty week 1
This post was edited on 8/28/25 at 10:30 am
Posted on 8/28/25 at 1:19 pm to Kujo
quote:
Ollie, Wilson, Hasty week 1
Achane is expected to play week one per the Dolphins GM yesterday
Posted on 8/28/25 at 1:27 pm to msutiger
I see that GM report as strategy. “Expected”
“Don’t let the Colts prepare their defense for Ollie.”
“Don’t let the Colts prepare their defense for Ollie.”
Posted on 8/28/25 at 1:31 pm to msutiger
quote:I wonder what Barry’s TFL percentage was. Dude would have 6 carries for 7 yards, then 7 carries for 67 yards.
Barry Sanders wasn't getting out of that backfield.
TFL isn't just an individual stat.
Posted on 8/28/25 at 2:10 pm to Kujo
quote:
“Don’t let the Colts prepare their defense for Ollie.”
I can't tell if you are trolling at this point. Ollie Gordon was a sixth round running back and the 16th running back selected in the draft
Posted on 8/28/25 at 3:07 pm to msutiger
I’m sure you’ve seen the trend in Doak award winners.
A hit on all except those who had catastrophic injuries (Foreman & Love”.
“Meaningless!!! 16th RB in the 6th round.”
So even the leader in career negative yards was 50% better than Achane’s (no comment needed, just an observation)
A hit on all except those who had catastrophic injuries (Foreman & Love”.
quote:
The Doak Walker Award is given annually to the top running back in college football. Here are the last 10 winners, based on available information:
2024: Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
2023: Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State
2022: Bijan Robinson, Texas
2021: Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State
2020: Najee Harris, Alabama
2019: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
2018: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
2017: Bryce Love, Stanford
2016: D’Onta Foreman, Texas
2015: Derrick Henry, Alabama
“Meaningless!!! 16th RB in the 6th round.”
quote:
During his NFL career, Barry Sanders had a run for zero or less yards on about 11% of his total rushing attempts. This was a higher rate of negative runs than most running backs, but it was also a product of his signature running style.
So even the leader in career negative yards was 50% better than Achane’s (no comment needed, just an observation)
This post was edited on 8/28/25 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 8/28/25 at 3:54 pm to Kujo
Which one of those guys came back to college the next season and had their production fall off a cliff before entering the NFL?
Oh yeah, Bryce Love
Ollie Gordon wasn’t good at Okie State last year. Is there potential there, sure? But he was a sixth round back for a reason.
Day three backs have an incredibly low hit rate especially ones that go into establish backfields. The Dolphins backfield is Achane’s and Ollie Gordon isn’t changing that. The fantasy football community has lost their minds on Ollie Gordon. You would think Achane was having his legs amputated tomorrow
Oh yeah, Bryce Love
Ollie Gordon wasn’t good at Okie State last year. Is there potential there, sure? But he was a sixth round back for a reason.
Day three backs have an incredibly low hit rate especially ones that go into establish backfields. The Dolphins backfield is Achane’s and Ollie Gordon isn’t changing that. The fantasy football community has lost their minds on Ollie Gordon. You would think Achane was having his legs amputated tomorrow
Posted on 9/8/25 at 3:24 pm to Kujo
quote:What was all this about?
Ollie will get the start and never look back.
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:46 am to drizztiger
This happens every year. People lose their minds over some camp videos and sound bites.
Braelon Allen was supposedly going to supplant Breece Hall. How is that working out?
Braelon Allen was supposedly going to supplant Breece Hall. How is that working out?
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:50 am to Kujo
quote:
During his NFL career, Barry Sanders had a run for zero or less yards on about 11% of his total rushing attempts. This was a higher rate of negative runs than most running backs, but it was also a product of his signature running style.
It also had a lot to do with his shite o-line.
Something else he has in common with Achane.This post was edited on 9/9/25 at 9:51 am
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