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Betting markets are currently pricing in a 95% chance of no change in interest rates

Posted on 6/4/25 at 7:48 am
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
175878 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 7:48 am
At the next Fed meeting in 2 weeks








However, if you want lower mortgage rates, then you should be crying about the money printing the Big Beautiful Bill will cause, which will affect the 10YY more than whatever the Fed does
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32657 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 7:50 am to
quote:

However, if you want lower mortgage rates, then you should be crying about the money printing the Big Beautiful Bill will cause


Well I'm definitely on the side of "stop spending money we don't have on stupid shite that doesn't positively impact the taxpayers". We suck at this. And I want to primary every republican that pushed that disaster right now. frick them.

And I'm either getting older or I'm just kind of an a-hole - but I honestly think mortgage rates are at a healthy spot. We saw record low rates for a while - those days are not coming back. We don't have a buyer frenzy in my area, but housing that's under $300K seems to move reasonably quickly. The $300k-$600k range tends to sit for a while which should be expected - the market for them is smaller and have more unique requirements/demands on location, style, size, and amenities.

I think housing prices need more downward pressure in the future by increasing housing supply on the affordable end. The best way to do that is to do something about crime in this country and revamp the smaller, affordable post-war housing in America's cities. We already have that housing stock but it's often either in super expensive or super ghetto areas. Address the crime issues and we could see younger people investing in homes in the city instead of renting or moving directly to the suburbs.

I don't know how we can do something about crime. It has to be a permanent solution in how judges or DA's get into office in some of these cities or we will end up seeing people invest in a sinking ship. Right now suburbs are safer bets in many places despite their lack of infrastructure, traffic issues, and affordability problems. It's a shame because America build so many homes between 1940 and 1970 that are the right size for smaller families and could be easily updated very quickly. But they are mostly either very expensive, established areas or in very risky, high crime areas. Younger buyers aren't going for either of those.
This post was edited on 6/4/25 at 8:02 am
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
55704 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 7:57 am to
You lower rates when the economy starts getting bad. You raise rates or hold them steady when the economy is good.

So the question people should be asking themselves is whether or not they think the economy is starting to get bad.

Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
88070 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 7:57 am to
CME has it at 99% no cut

Everyone knows too late is playing politics
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
175878 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 7:57 am to
I agree with you, especially if we could stay in a healthy 6% range. That is not so high that it kills the economy but high enough to demand somewhat of a correction back to affordability in the RE market.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
452344 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 7:58 am to
quote:

. The best way to do that is to do something about crime in this country

Dude crime is plummeting after the post Covid spike

Has been since 2023
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
131541 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 7:59 am to
quote:

if you want lower mortgage rates, then you should be crying about the money printing the Big Beautiful Bill will cause, which will affect the 10YY more than whatever the Fed does
Correct.
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
175878 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 7:59 am to
quote:


So the question people should be asking themselves is whether or not they think the economy is starting to get bad.


ADP numbers out this morning show an economic cool down


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Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
131348 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:02 am to
quote:

Everyone knows too late is playing politics
Just because you don't like the recent Fed's interest rate decisions does not mean "everyone" does. You don't know what "everyone" thinks.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
452344 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:03 am to
quote:

ADP numbers out this morning show an economic cool down


Atlanta fed in t'mud
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
88070 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:05 am to
quote:

You don't know what "everyone" thinks.


Probably should have said everyone with a brain knows it
Posted by Mandtgr47
Member since Aug 2024
6257 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:05 am to
Were you on here bitching about the Green Deal, that led to near double digit inflation? No? I didn't think so. But carry on with your fear mongering.
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
175878 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:05 am to
quote:

Everyone knows too late is playing politics



What will your reaction be if they cut rates, but the 10YY rises because a cut makes investors anticipate economic stimulation and potential future inflation?

Right now, a slowing economy is more likely to bring down the 10-year yield, so I don’t understand why you, someone who wants lower mortgage rates, are cheering for the opposite.
Posted by Mandtgr47
Member since Aug 2024
6257 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:06 am to
quote:

but I honestly think mortgage rates are at a healthy spot.


let me guess, yours is locked in Low or you paid your mortgage off. I love these kind of posts. The "hey it doesn't impact me, so f it".
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
175878 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:07 am to
quote:

Were you on here bitching about the Green Deal, that led to near double digit inflation? No? I didn't think so.


Yes, I bitched about it a lot.

I bitch anytime we are printing Trillions. Trump being behind it doesn't change my mind, despite my support for him over the past 10 years.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
131348 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:09 am to
quote:

Probably should have said everyone with a brain knows it
Why leave yourself out...
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
452344 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:09 am to
quote:

Were you on here bitching about the Green Deal, that led to near double digit inflation?

When did the Green New Deal pass?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
88070 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:10 am to
quote:

What will your reaction be if they cut rates, but the 10YY rises because a cut makes investors anticipate economic stimulation and potential future inflation?



What if that doesnt happen. You act like im wanting zero rates

They are too restrictive and it needs another 1% cut however you break it down by the end of the year. And they will be cutting

I dont give a shite if mortgage rates lower I have told you this. They can go to 20% and I will be ecstatic.
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
175878 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:10 am to
quote:

The "hey it doesn't impact me, so f it".



Lower rates would affect him as it would probably make his home's value rise more and at a faster pace.

It will also affect him for any other financing decisions.

The Feds impact on mortgage rates is greatly overestimated by many. I am guessing you are one of those.
Posted by Crimsonians
Member since Nov 2019
1930 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 8:12 am to
Not sure. What was Congress like then?
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