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Started By
Message
Would you hedge this bet?
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:32 am
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:32 am
I put $500 on lsu to make it to Omaha at -115. Dallas Baptist is +450 to win the Baton Rouge regional. Assuming both favorites win today, lsu would play Dallas Baptist Saturday in the winners bracket game with a chance to go 2-0 in regional play. If lsu were to lose, lsu would have to win 3 elimination games in a row to win the regional. Unlikely. Teams that go up 2-0 probably win the regional 75% of the time.
LSU still would have to win 2 out of 3 in the Supers to advance to Omaha likely facing Clemson/West Virginia or Kentucky but LSU would be in good shape having their 2 aces on the mound at home with Anderson and Eyanson in games 1 and 2.
Would you put $100 on Dallas Baptist to win $450. Therefore I’d only be risking to lose $50 on my original bet if Dallas Baptist were to win but I would also only win about $350 if LSU were to win instead of $450 by betting on Dallas Baptist haha.
Also Rhode Island has a chance at beating Dallas Baptist in game 1
LSU still would have to win 2 out of 3 in the Supers to advance to Omaha likely facing Clemson/West Virginia or Kentucky but LSU would be in good shape having their 2 aces on the mound at home with Anderson and Eyanson in games 1 and 2.
Would you put $100 on Dallas Baptist to win $450. Therefore I’d only be risking to lose $50 on my original bet if Dallas Baptist were to win but I would also only win about $350 if LSU were to win instead of $450 by betting on Dallas Baptist haha.
Also Rhode Island has a chance at beating Dallas Baptist in game 1
This post was edited on 5/31/25 at 2:19 am
13
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:33 am to Hiphopanonymous
That’s not really a hedge, there are still countless ways to lose both bets. A good hedge guarantees money no matter what. So no, I wouldn’t.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:34 am to TheWalrus
So you’d just let it ride as is?
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:37 am to Hiphopanonymous
Yes. Maybe hedge in the super.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:38 am to Hiphopanonymous
At this time, yes. If LSU wins the regional and their opponent is big plus money in the super regional, then I would consider it.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:42 am to Hiphopanonymous
Not a hedge
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:43 am to Hiphopanonymous
DBU now +500
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:48 am to Hiphopanonymous
I’m really not as worried with LSU about lsu in a super regional format with Anderson and Eyanson to win 2 outta 3 vs whoever they play. But with Regionals format, if lsu were to lose Game 2, it’d be very hard to come back and win the regional having already burned both Anderson and Eyanson. Then would have to win 3 games in a row without them.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:51 am to Hiphopanonymous
I'd hedge a $10,000.00 bet idk if I would for just $500
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:51 am to Hiphopanonymous
I mean go ahead and do it if you think it is the smart play. It’s not a hedge though, it’s betting with another outcome in mind.
A hedge should at the very least reduce your maximum loss, not accentuate it.
A hedge should at the very least reduce your maximum loss, not accentuate it.
This post was edited on 5/30/25 at 11:53 am
Posted on 5/30/25 at 11:52 am to Hiphopanonymous
Dude don’t “hedge” a $500 bet, just let it ride
Posted on 5/30/25 at 12:14 pm to TheWalrus
Agreed this isn’t the true definition of a hedge. It’s actually not a bad bet, tho
Posted on 5/30/25 at 12:31 pm to Lake08
Thank you haha. If I took Dallas Baptist and they lost to Rhode Island, I’d feel stupid. But if I didn’t take Dallas Baptist and they beat Rhode Island and LSU on Saturday I’d feel stupid haha. By taking Dallas Baptist and them winning the regional at +500, I’d win everything back from my original bet and break even.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 12:35 pm to Hiphopanonymous
That's not a hedge bet, that's betting scared.
Hedge is having a big payout, but making sure ur covered in case it doesn't hit.
Hedge is having a big payout, but making sure ur covered in case it doesn't hit.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 4:32 pm to SeeeeK
Had to put $100 on DBU with Anderson starting Tom. DBU has hit 97 HRs on the year and Anderson has given up 14 HRs in 15 starts.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 5:56 pm to Hiphopanonymous
We all knew there was a 99.9% chance lsu would make the tournament this year. Why even make the bet in the first place if this is the point you start hedging…. Maybe super regional round if you really were worried about the money
Posted on 5/30/25 at 6:08 pm to LSShoe1030
Bc of the regionals format.
Any great team can drop 1 game to a good team. Had LSU lost to DBU Sat, there’s no way they were gonna win 3 games in a row with having already burned Anderson and Eyanson.
I don’t believe any of Clemson/West Virginia/Kentucky are beating LSU in a super regional format. Best 2 out of 3 with Anderson and Eyanson. So this was the team to hedge on. DBU should beat Rhode Island with the better overall pitching but they can obviously lose to Rhode Island also with Rhode Island’s ace on the mound. Just assuring I’m not losing all of my original bet if DBU were to win their 1st game and beat LSU Sat.
Any great team can drop 1 game to a good team. Had LSU lost to DBU Sat, there’s no way they were gonna win 3 games in a row with having already burned Anderson and Eyanson.
I don’t believe any of Clemson/West Virginia/Kentucky are beating LSU in a super regional format. Best 2 out of 3 with Anderson and Eyanson. So this was the team to hedge on. DBU should beat Rhode Island with the better overall pitching but they can obviously lose to Rhode Island also with Rhode Island’s ace on the mound. Just assuring I’m not losing all of my original bet if DBU were to win their 1st game and beat LSU Sat.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 7:51 pm to Hiphopanonymous
Hedging before any game starts… I’m sure sports books would love people to do that all the time.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 8:47 pm to MikeD
Yeah all the sports books Fanduel/Draftkings/Espn Bet, take the future odds off the board once regional games start. They probably repost them Tom with updated odds but I wasn’t gonna be able to get DBU at +450 tom I wouldn’t think.
Posted on 5/30/25 at 8:56 pm to Hiphopanonymous
Only hedge a bet if you are overexposed or the money is significant.
Unless you luck into a great line, the hedge will eat into the expected value of your bet.
Unless you luck into a great line, the hedge will eat into the expected value of your bet.
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