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SEC Championship scenarios are a mess
Posted on 10/30/24 at 10:45 am
Posted on 10/30/24 at 10:45 am
For anyone that read it, my previous post needs to be scratched because it did not consider the mind bending scenarios of 3 or even 4 teams with the same conference record. My effort to clear up the misinformation did just the opposite, further proving how ridiculous the non-division system is. I greatly appreciate those who pointed this out. It has become obvious that the possibilities are too numerous to grasp. About all I know is LSU is in better shape than most teams, and would probably make the title game in the case of a UGA, Texas, A&M, and LSU tie. Winning out likely gets us to ATL, and almost certainly gets us in the playoff. I'm sure my fellow nerds who like to know who to root for and what certain games mean at all times will understand my disdain for this new system that puts so many variables in play. I guess a positive on the 12 team system is we're still playing nationally meaningful games even with 2 losses. For now, let's figure out how to stop a running QB and the rest should take care of itself... #BeatBama
Surely 10-2 LSU doesn't get left out even if we don't get to ATL right?! In that case, maybe you prefer sitting at home. A 1st round bye is cool and all but imagine someone like Penn State/Miami/Notre Dame/Clemson coming to BTR for a playoff game.
Thanks to y'all in the comments for some good explanations!
Surely 10-2 LSU doesn't get left out even if we don't get to ATL right?! In that case, maybe you prefer sitting at home. A 1st round bye is cool and all but imagine someone like Penn State/Miami/Notre Dame/Clemson coming to BTR for a playoff game.
Thanks to y'all in the comments for some good explanations!
This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 1:20 pm
11
Posted on 10/30/24 at 10:48 am to 318DeathValleyTiger
quote:
It could be advantageous to miss out on ATL and sit home at 10-2 waiting on the committee.
I don’t think there’s a scenario where this happens. LSU is still in even if UGA & Texas are at 7-1 too
Posted on 10/30/24 at 10:52 am to JimTiger72
quote:
I don’t think there’s a scenario where this happens. LSU is still in even if UGA & Texas are at 7-1 too
there is a scenario, but it would require a couple of unlikely upsets
Posted on 10/30/24 at 10:54 am to Nutriaitch
True, I guess it comes down to conference opponents win %
Posted on 10/30/24 at 11:00 am to JimTiger72
quote:
True, I guess it comes down to conference opponents win %
with 3 or more teams (that lack common opponents across the board) that is correct.
so there is a way for:
A&M, Texas, UGA, and LSU to all finish 7-1 and for A&M and Texas to have a rematch in Atlanta.
it's an unlikely scenario that pretty much has no chance of happening, but we've seen some crazy shite in this sport over the years, so who the hell knows.
Posted on 10/30/24 at 11:13 am to 318DeathValleyTiger
quote:
It's odd that there aren't more official explanations available.
the explanations are out there.
if 2 teams are tied and played each other, then head to head
if they haven't played each other, then it's record vs common opponents.
if that is still tied, then it goes to conference opponent winning %
then scoring margin vs conference opponents (and there is a really convoluted formula for calculating this)
then random draw
if 3 or more are tied, it starts with record vs. common opponents, and follows the same path as 2 teams.
quote:
Unless I'm missing something, here is all that needs to happen for LSU to regain control of its own destiny to ATL
the only way for LSU to control their own destiny is to be tied (for 1st place) with no more than one other team in the loss column.
any other scenario puts it to tie breakers which will rely on other games that don't involve LSU.
This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 11:22 am
Posted on 10/30/24 at 12:20 pm to Nutriaitch
Thanks for clarifying. This feels more complicated than it should be
Posted on 10/30/24 at 12:23 pm to JimTiger72
quote:if texas is 7-1 and A&M is 7-1, we'd be out. Texas would have win over A&M (common opponent) and A&M obviously has H2H. Not sure how it will work with 4 way tie between LSU, UGA, Texas, and A&M. Is that where "total record of conference opponents" comes into play? Or would they say UGA beat Texas and Texas beat A&M and therefore it would be UGA vs Texas rematch? it gets awfully tricky. Hopefully LSU can make things complicated
I don’t think there’s a scenario where this happens. LSU is still in even if UGA & Texas are at 7-1 too
Posted on 10/30/24 at 12:39 pm to 318DeathValleyTiger
quote:
This feels more complicated than it should be
it gets more and more complicated the further down the list of tie breakers you go.
and the more teams you have tied, that complicates it even farther.
also should note:
if more than 2 teams are tied, this list of tie breakers is used until you find 1 teams that comes out above the rest.
That team is removed and the remaining tied teams go back to the top of the tie breaker list and work their way back down.
rinse, repeat until all ties are broken.
having so many teams makes it a lot more likely that you're going to work your way down the list now than in years past.
Prior to 2012 you would play all but 4 other members of the conference.
2012-2023 you would play all but 5.
2024- there are now 7 that you don't play.
with so many teams not playing each other at all, head 2 head becomes less likely. Common opponents (across several teams) also becomes less likely.
Posted on 10/30/24 at 12:46 pm to 318DeathValleyTiger
I'd rather miss the SECCG against a top 5-10 team. We lost that and we are most likely out of the playoff picture.
Keep winning and get to 7 or 8 with a HOME game in DV.
Keep winning and get to 7 or 8 with a HOME game in DV.
Posted on 10/30/24 at 12:48 pm to 318DeathValleyTiger
Here is the scenario I cannot figure out:
Tex 7-1, L UGA, W aTm
UGA 7-1, W Tex, L Bama
aTm 7-1, W LSU, L Tex
LSU 7-1, W Bama, L aTm
I believe we are first out because we are 0-1 in head to head in that group.
Tex 7-1, L UGA, W aTm
UGA 7-1, W Tex, L Bama
aTm 7-1, W LSU, L Tex
LSU 7-1, W Bama, L aTm
I believe we are first out because we are 0-1 in head to head in that group.
Posted on 10/30/24 at 12:49 pm to 318DeathValleyTiger
If LSU wins out they are in most scenarios, unless it is a 4 way tie with Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Texas.
Posted on 10/30/24 at 12:50 pm to GetmorewithLes
quote:
Here is the scenario I cannot figure out:
Tex 7-1, L UGA, W aTm
UGA 7-1, W Tex, L Bama
aTm 7-1, W LSU, L Tex
LSU 7-1, W Bama, L aTm
I believe we are first out because we are 0-1 in head to head in that group.
You can't use the head-to-head because LSU didn't play UGA. So you have to use the other tiebreaker rules which means LSU beats out UGA with the common conference opponent record. Then you have to use the conference opponent win % and LSU would have the highest and A&M is second highest.
This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 10/30/24 at 12:55 pm to 318DeathValleyTiger
LSU doesn’t need any help to get in. If they win out they are in. Period. No scenarios or anything.
Same goes for A&M. They win out and they’re in.
Same goes for A&M. They win out and they’re in.
Posted on 10/30/24 at 12:58 pm to iamandykeim
quote:
if texas is 7-1 and A&M is 7-1, we'd be out.
if LSU, A&M, and Texas are the only 3 teams tied at 7-1 it would go as follows. (note: this could change depending on how you get UGA and Tennessee to 2 losses each)
1. Head-to-Head (all 3 teams would have to have played each other for this one to apply ; we didn't play Texas, so go to #2)
2. Record vs. Common Opponents of all 3 teams (Florida and Arkansas are the only 2 teams all 3 teams played ; all 3 teams are 2-0 so go to #3)
3. Winning % of conference opponents (this one will likely be the one used ; will depend on all other conference games to determine) . *if you just pick out the "most likely result" of remaining games -in order to get only these 3 teams tied- LSU would have the highest opponent's winning percentage and would be the designated Home Team in Atlanta*
revert back to top of tie breaker list:
1. Head-to-Head: A&M beat Texas and would be the designated Away team in Atlanta
Posted on 10/30/24 at 1:00 pm to turnpiketiger
quote:
LSU doesn’t need any help to get in. If they win out they are in. Period. No scenarios or anything.
you're wrong.
winning % among conference opponents is the tie breaker that would be used.
it would take some unlikely upsets, but there are scenarios where 7-1 LSU gets left out.
quote:
Same goes for A&M. They win out and they’re in.
obviously because they would be the only 8-0 team.
Posted on 10/30/24 at 1:01 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
if 3 or more are tied, it starts with record vs. common opponents, and follows the same path as 2 teams.
Just to clarify, technically a 3+ team tie still starts with head to head.
- If there’s a round robin between the tied teams (they all played each other) then the team(s) with the best record in the round robin win the tiebreaker.
- If there’s no round robin among the tied teams, but one team still has head-to-head wins over all other tied teams, that team wins the tiebreaker even though the other teams didn’t play each other.
Neither scenario is all that likely to apply to a 3+ team tie for 1st. In fact, I think it might be impossible for it to apply to 3+ 1-loss teams at this point. One scenario would be Texas A&M beating both LSU and Texas, but Texas already has a loss so it wouldn’t come down to that now (if they lose to A&M, it would be their 2nd loss).
Posted on 10/30/24 at 1:06 pm to lostinbr
quote:
Just to clarify, technically a 3+ team tie still starts with head to head.
- If there’s a round robin between the tied teams (they all played each other) then the team(s) with the best record in the round robin win the tiebreaker.
that is correct.
but with 3 teams tied with 1 loss each, either they didn't play a round robin, or they all went 1-1 (no other mathematical possibility.
If they all have more than 1 loss, then the possibility is back on the table.
Posted on 10/30/24 at 1:08 pm to GetmorewithLes
quote:
Here is the scenario I cannot figure out:
Tex 7-1, L UGA, W aTm
UGA 7-1, W Tex, L Bama
aTm 7-1, W LSU, L Tex
LSU 7-1, W Bama, L aTm
I believe we are first out because we are 0-1 in head to head in that group.
goes to winning % of all conference opponents.
so would really depend on what happens all over the rest of the league.
Posted on 10/30/24 at 1:15 pm to lostinbr
Scenario #1: UGA, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU all tied at 7-1
A) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- There is not a complete round robin among these teams
- LSU did not play UGA
- Texas A&M did not play UGA
- Texas did not play LSU
- No team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, advance to Record versus common Conference opponents
B) Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
- Florida would be the only team and all the tied teams beat them
C) Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent, proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
- All teams are tied here (only all played Florida)
D) Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
- This standings will produce a first place winner (Texas A&M)
- The remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker procedures
LSU, UGA, Texas:
Not a complete round robin, once again only Florida as a common opponent, so LSU would be the away team because of conference winning percentage
UGA would then finish 3rd and Texas 4th because of head to head.
Scenario #2: Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU all tied at 7-1
A) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- There is not a complete round robin among these teams
- LSU did not play Tennessee
- Texas A&M did not play Tennessee
- Texas did not play Tennessee
- Texas did not play LSU
- No team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, advance to Record versus common Conference opponents
B) Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
- Florida and Arkansas would be the teams
- Everyone won besides Tennessee (1-1) so they are eliminated
- We restart with Texas A&M, LSU, and Texas
A) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- There is not a complete round robin among these teams
- Texas did not play LSU
- No team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, advance to Record versus common Conference opponents
B) All tied here
C) All tied here
D) Texas A&M has best winning percentage, restart with LSU and Texas
A) Did not play
B) Texas beats out LSU because of common conference opponent record
Texas A&M vs Texas
A) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- There is not a complete round robin among these teams
- LSU did not play UGA
- Texas A&M did not play UGA
- Texas did not play LSU
- No team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, advance to Record versus common Conference opponents
B) Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
- Florida would be the only team and all the tied teams beat them
C) Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent, proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
- All teams are tied here (only all played Florida)
D) Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
- This standings will produce a first place winner (Texas A&M)
- The remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker procedures
LSU, UGA, Texas:
Not a complete round robin, once again only Florida as a common opponent, so LSU would be the away team because of conference winning percentage
UGA would then finish 3rd and Texas 4th because of head to head.
Scenario #2: Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU all tied at 7-1
A) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- There is not a complete round robin among these teams
- LSU did not play Tennessee
- Texas A&M did not play Tennessee
- Texas did not play Tennessee
- Texas did not play LSU
- No team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, advance to Record versus common Conference opponents
B) Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
- Florida and Arkansas would be the teams
- Everyone won besides Tennessee (1-1) so they are eliminated
- We restart with Texas A&M, LSU, and Texas
A) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- There is not a complete round robin among these teams
- Texas did not play LSU
- No team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, advance to Record versus common Conference opponents
B) All tied here
C) All tied here
D) Texas A&M has best winning percentage, restart with LSU and Texas
A) Did not play
B) Texas beats out LSU because of common conference opponent record
Texas A&M vs Texas
This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 1:24 pm
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